Housing market off to a flying start in 2020 with January sales numbers at a four year high

Property

Housing sales were particularly strong in Auckland in January although prices remained around recent levels

18th Feb 20, 10:08am by Greg Ninness

Auckland's housing market started the year on a strong note with a surge of sales in January.

The Real Estate Institute of NZ says 1295 properties were sold in Auckland in January, up +9.7% compared to January last year and the highest number of sales in the month of January since 2016.

Within the Auckland region sales were particularly strong on the North Shore, up +29.0%, in Waitakere up +28.6% and Rodney up +21.1%

Around the rest of the country excluding Auckland 3308 properties were sold in January, up +0.9% compared to January last year. This was also the highest level of sales for the month of January since 2016, with 10 of the country's 16 regions posting higher sales levels than a year ago.

Regions with particularly high sales levels compared to January last year were Nelson +42.6%, Manawatu/Whanganui +15.3%, Bay of Plenty +11.5% and Marlborough +11.3%.

However there were also some regions where there was a significant decline in sales compared to a year ago led by Tasman -29.3%, Southland -27.2% and Otago -17.1% (the interactive chart below plots the monthly sales trends in all regions).

Prices remained firm and mostly at the top end of recent ranges, with the national median selling price dropping back to $615,000 in January from $629,000 in December, but that was still up 11.8% compared to January last year.

In Auckland the median dropped back to $875,000 in January from $890,000 in December and remained below the record of $900,000 set in March 2017.

However record median prices were set in seven regions in January - Waikato $599,000, Bay of Plenty $683,000, Hawke's Bay $550,000, Manawatu/Whanganui $411,000, Taranaki $420,000, Otago $570,000 and Southland $359,000.

Canterbury's median price of $465,000 equalled the record set in October last year.

Going against the trend there was a particularly large drop in Wellington's median price, which declined from $684,000 in December to $620,000 in January.

Other regions to record declines in the median price in January compared to December were Northland, Gisborne, Tasman and Nelson (see the interactive chart below which tracks median prices in all regions).

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

Median price - REINZ

Select chart tabs

Source: REINZ

Median house price growth

Select chart tabs

Source: REINZ

Volumes sold - REINZ

Select chart tabs

Source: REINZ

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131 Comments

by printer8 | 18th Feb 20, 10:09am 1581973755

I see HPI for New Zealand is up 7% - a figure that has a familiar ring to it.
It will be embarrassing for many who rubbished Westpac last year to refer to the following link as an example when Westpac who - as early as May - were predicting 7% house price inflation for this year. A reality check for some regular ready to slag-off posters.
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/101179/westpac-economists-reiterate…

by tothepoint - d… | 18th Feb 20, 10:19am 1581974393

Today's headline is hardly surprising, given that the Auckland housing market was flat/slow through 2017-2019.

It's further evidence of the pick-up in the market, which first became evident 4-5 months ago.

The likelihood is that the market will continue to strengthen through 2020.......

But spruikers who yearn for mammoth increases in house prices are likely to be disheartened.

TTP

by Mrs The Point | 18th Feb 20, 11:23am 1581978233

Hahaha, so now you are disheartened?

by tothepoint - d… | 18th Feb 20, 11:49am 1581979776

Hi Mrs The Point,

To set the record straight, I have never foreseen mammoth house price increases in 2020.

I think that is just stupid.

If you're going to comment here, say something honest.

TTP

by CourtJester | 18th Feb 20, 11:40am 1581979247

Pick-up in the market??? Look at the volumes sold chart. Just look at it. Zoom out to, say, 2000-2020. Look. At. The. Chart. Now tell me where that pick-up is.

by Pragmatist | 18th Feb 20, 11:50am 1581979858

Auckland back to the same HPI as late 2016/early 2017. No improvement yet. It just recovered the dip from last year.

by Yvil | 18th Feb 20, 10:22am 1581974568

Thanks for the link Printer8, it was interesting reading posts from NZDan, rastus, Fritz, Courtjester and others ridiculing Westpac for their 7% house price growth forecast… which is spot on

by Fritz | 18th Feb 20, 10:33am 1581975207

How do you know it's 'spot on' after 1.5 of 12 months? It's maybe 'spot on' in terms of what you think will happen.
Prices in Auckland are still lower than their peak more than 3 years ago.
We have coronavirus, a drought, and an election this year.
I'd be extremely surprised if the increase is anywhere close to 7% this year.

by printer8 | 18th Feb 20, 10:43am 1581975781

Fritz
That sounds like "But . . . . but . . . but . . .", just like the possum in the headlights.
The HPI inflation is up 7% so be surprised!!!! :)

by Fritz | 18th Feb 20, 10:53am 1581976438

Um, the prediction of 7%, which I contested, was for 2020.
This data is for the 12 months to January 2020.
I never, ever, argued that price rises over NZ were not significant in 2019.
How can anyone call Westpac's prediction for 2020 'spot on' after one month's data?

by Yvil | 18th Feb 20, 1:17pm 1581985045

Fritz, a bit disappointing that you're stooping to CJ099's level, a simple "OK I admit I was wrong and Westpac was spot on" would make you look so much better. You're better than that

by Fritz | 18th Feb 20, 11:28am 1581978481

You really aren't that smart are you?

by CourtJester | 18th Feb 20, 11:36am 1581979003

He just likes to put words in other people's mouth so that he can be always right.

by Yvil | 18th Feb 20, 11:48am 1581979713

Resorting to personal insults is never a winner Fritz.
You and I both know that if we were to use our prediction accuracy as measure of smartness I'd be miles ahead

by Fritz | 18th Feb 20, 1:13pm 1581984815

JUST SO IT IS 100% CLEAR YVIL, AND YOU UNDERSTAND. AND SO YOU DON'T KEEP MISQUOTING ME AND OTHERS.

WESTPAC SAID LAST AUGUST PRICES WILL GO UP 7% IN 2020.

RIGHT NOW, IT IS FEBRUARY 2020.

PRICES WENT UP 7% IN THE YEAR TO JANUARY 2020. THEY HAVE NOT GONE UP 7% IN 2020 - BECAUSE WE ARE ONLY IN FEBRUARY.

I DISAGREE THAT THEY WILL GO UP 7% IN 2020. BUT WE WILL NOT KNOW UNTIL JANUARY 2021.

IS THIS CLEAR YET? DO YOU UNDERSTAND NOW?

AND SO WILL YOU STOP PUTTING WORDS IN MY MOUTH?

by printer8 | 18th Feb 20, 1:19pm 1581985156

Fritz
They first said it in May 2019.

by Fritz | 18th Feb 20, 1:27pm 1581985638

Doesn't matter if they said it in May or August, the prediction was for 2020.
Do you see my point or not?
If not, why not.

by Yvil | 18th Feb 20, 1:45pm 1581986740

Too late for the 7% Fritz, Westpac are now predicting 10% (full article on Interest today)

"In Westpac's latest Home Truths publication, Stephens is now forecasting house price inflation of 10% by the middle of this year.
Last year Westpac put itself out on a limb by predicting that New Zealand house price inflation would reach 7% in 2020. But its prediction of a sharp upturn in the market has come good

by Yvil | 18th Feb 20, 1:50pm 1581987016

Also, I quote, (not my words):

"And the hot start to the year the housing market has made means that 7% pick has already been achieved"

by printer8 | 18th Feb 20, 3:41pm 1581993686

Fritz
"WESTPAC SAID LAST AUGUST PRICES WILL GO UP 7% IN 2020" and "THEY HAVE NOT GONE UP 7% IN 2020 - BECAUSE WE ARE ONLY IN FEBRUARY", (your use of capitals); "YOUR ARE WRONG, WRONG, WRONG" (my use of capitals).
Please read the next interest.co.nz article (posted 11.48am); you will see the context in which they make such comments. Even interest.co.nz acknowledge that they have got that right. "Last year Westpac put itself out on a limb by predicting that New Zealand house price inflation would reach 7% in 2020. But its prediction of a sharp upturn in the market has come good."
Their original comment was "We now expect house price inflation to accelerate to 7% by mid-2020, due to the recent sharp drop in interest rates". Note that they are talking about an increase in rate to 7% "by" mid-2020 - so ahead of their prediction. Never said for the whole of 2020 - you are "wrong, wrong, wrong" and desperately clutching at straws.
Read the article posted May of last year: https://www.interest.co.nz/property/99631/westpac-economists-expect-res….
Yes they got the OCR prediction wrong but consistently stood by their 7% claim on a number of occasions.

by Fritz | 18th Feb 20, 4:17pm 1581995858

I'm calling total bullshit on that.
In August they stated:

'...so we are sticking to our forecast of 7% house price inflation next year'

Any person would read the common sense meaning of that as being 7% growth across the calendar year ie. from 1 January 2020 to 1 January 2021.

To now claim their prediction is correct by saying there was 7% growth between January 2019 and January 2020?? Not buying it.

It's a total crock.

But then as others have said I'm wasting my time and energy trying to talk logically with morons. I should stick to my new years resolution of not commenting on housing specific threads.

by Yvil | 18th Feb 20, 4:36pm 1581997014

You could have saved yourself so much grief by simply admitting "Yes, Westpac's forecast was right" and also make yourself look like a good, honest guy...

by tothepoint - d… | 18th Feb 20, 6:17pm 1582003074

Hi Yvil,

Remember that the DGM are neither ethical nor smart.

Don' t expect too much from them.

TTP

by printer8 | 18th Feb 20, 4:03pm 1581995034

Frtiz
"Do you see my point or not?" No, Fritz.
Maybe it is because you misquote Westpac.
In May 2019 Westpac said the rate (note "the rate") of inflation will be up to 7% by mid-2020. They never ever, ever - yes; never ever, ever - said that over the calendar year prices would increase by 7%.
What they did say was that the rate of house prices would rise to 7% in 2020.
Please read the May article.

by CourtJester | 18th Feb 20, 2:10pm 1581988239

It's pointless, Fritz. All he's gonna see is "up", "7%", "2020"

by Yvil | 18th Feb 20, 4:33pm 1581996809

Indeed, I wonder why??? Oh, because it's correct, as in true, right the opposite of incorrect, false, wrong...

by Jaf | 18th Feb 20, 1:02pm 1581984131

Fritz, you are right.People who suffer from cognitive bias will ostritch-like always look for stuff that is in alignment with their views, never mind if it is out of tandem with reality.Waste of time really replying to their comments.

by printer8 | 18th Feb 20, 4:06pm 1581995177

jaf
I actually agree with you . . . except direct the comment at Fritz who based on facts is the one "who suffer's from cognitive bias will ostritch-like always look for stuff that is in alignment with their views, never mind if it is out of tandem with reality".
Read the May 2019 article

by CourtJester | 18th Feb 20, 1:12pm 1581984728

I predicted no OCR change in 2020, so my prediction came true! Pack up guys, party's over, I won!

by CJ099 | 18th Feb 20, 10:44am 1581975842

Spot on Fritz. "Prices in Auckland are still lower than their peak more than 3 years ago". All we're seeing is people accepting more realistic sales prices after several years of a stagnating market, hence the increase in sales. Prices may increase slowly after that if mortgage interest keep falling to allow wage earners to borrow more.

by company of heroes | 18th Feb 20, 10:47am 1581976027

Hi Fritz and CJ099, you dont have to respond to their comments. No point to debate. I am pretty sure that they are trying to pick a fight to stir up the topic. If you pay a bit attention to their commenting actitivities, they rarely post anything under the topic about economy and other investiments. At this stage, you probably know who they are already...

by Fritz | 18th Feb 20, 10:49am 1581976161

Yes, quite wise and right.
The word 'troll' springs to mind.

by Houseworks | 18th Feb 20, 2:49pm 1581990546

Fritz you should be happy with this news now that you're a property owning householder rather than renter ... that is unless you told some big fat lies about buying a house. You are secretly a renter and still hoping to find the right box but everything keeps going UP.

by Pragmatist | 18th Feb 20, 8:51pm 1582012279

I was going to say thats a new low for you.. but no, really it isn't.
Not everyone is blinded by greed, some see a house as a home, and don't see screwing others with rising house prices as a good outcome.

by Houseworks | 19th Feb 20, 7:15am 1582049711

That is really profound lol keep up the potsmoking. The trouble is he was not discussing the merits of the increase but that it failed to meet the forecast.

by CJ099 | 18th Feb 20, 11:09am 1581977366

Yes agreed CH and thanks, we'll let them chase their own tails over this one. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

by Yvil | 18th Feb 20, 1:28pm 1581985716

I purposely don't comment much on other topics because I like to stick to topics I know well, which is property in NZ. I have been an Architect with my own business for 18 years and I have owned both residential and commercial properties for 25 years and I still do. Therefore I also know mortgages which I regularly comment on. I wish more commenters would post on issues they have vast experience in, instead of treating Interest's comment section, as an opinions column

by HeavyG | 18th Feb 20, 1:42pm 1581986555

Westpac are doubling down:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…

by Nzdan | 18th Feb 20, 11:09am 1581977346

Yes, however my comment was ridiculing how contradictory their prediction was. "We're confident but there's no evidence so don't give us shit if we're wrong". Hey good on them though for taking a wild guess and getting it right.

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/101179/westpac-economists-reiterate…

by CourtJester | 18th Feb 20, 1:08pm 1581984497

Embarrassing to us, or embarrassing to the people in power who made this happen? Just a few more incentives here and there to keep the party going, gotta be real good for the economy!
I'm not worried though. Prices in AKL still below the peak (which was 2 and a half years ago!). Black swan events doing their job of fixing what politicians couldn't (and bankers don't want to).

By the way, I predicted no OCR changes for 2020. No OCR changes so far, so my prediction was right! Now that we're jumping into conclusions based on a single month's results...

by Yvil | 18th Feb 20, 1:30pm 1581985829

"It will be embarrassing for many who rubbished Westpac last year" Printer8 was quite clear

by CourtJester | 18th Feb 20, 2:13pm 1581988416

"I wish more commenters would post on issues they have vast experience in, instead of treating Interest's comment section, as an opinions column"

by Yvil | 18th Feb 20, 2:38pm 1581989930

Thank you

by Yvil | 18th Feb 20, 10:14am 1581974069

REINZ must have it wrong, CJ099's repeatedly posted that sales were abysmal in January especially in Auckland.

by tothepoint - d… | 18th Feb 20, 10:24am 1581974640

Hi Yvil,

CJ099 is Patron-Saint of a rare and dying societal group known as the "DGM". They suffer from terminal doom and gloom.

There is no known cure for this condition, though medical scientists are taking on the challenge......

TTP

by CJ099 | 18th Feb 20, 10:40am 1581975659

LOL Well we're certainly not seeing it in the auction results, and haven't you just contradicted yourself TTP in your above comment "But spruikers who yearn for mammoth increases in house prices are likely to be disheartened". Quote from TTP in this article.

And I certainly won't break out the champers just yet until Auckland's prices rise fully above their 2017 levels. What we're really seeing is people selling at a more realistic price, that will naturally increase "sales" not necessarily prices just yet.

by tothepoint - d… | 18th Feb 20, 11:55am 1581980138

Hi CJ099,

See my response above to Mrs The Point.

It applies to you, as well.

We would appreciate if, in future, you were honest.

TTP

by CJ099 | 18th Feb 20, 2:46pm 1581990370

TTP clearly you don't even understand what honesty means. You're really just out there to try to get people to bite with you irrational behavior to provoke them as other commenters have pointed out even in this article.

by CourtJester | 18th Feb 20, 11:45am 1581979559

Is this the kind of 'sophisticated debate' you wanted to see on this website?

by CJ099 | 18th Feb 20, 10:50am 1581976219

Yavil you're getting over excited again these are just sales not house price increase. If you drop a property price to more affordable levels then it will sell. You could also think of it this way; If property is selling well then banks will not need to lower their mortgage rates further until the market stalls again (So no price increases for you).

by Brock Landers | 18th Feb 20, 10:18am 1581974325

Adrian Orr must be frothing with glee at the further inequality he is entrenching.

by THE MAN 2 | 18th Feb 20, 10:31am 1581975084

Inequality?
So we think that everyone should have the same wealth, even though many don’t do anything to achieve this?
Communism is the word that comes to mind, and we all know that doesn’t work and we wouldn’t want to live in that environment anyway!

by ShoreThing | 18th Feb 20, 10:35am 1581975330

"even though many don’t do anything to achieve this?"

I submit to you that most current homeowners also haven't done anything to achieve this - the increase in "wealth" they currently enjoy is a result of present monetary policy, immigration and local/central regulation.

by loveyourwork | 18th Feb 20, 10:48am 1581976114

My favourite part is when homeowners think they have earnt it.

by ShoreThing | 18th Feb 20, 10:50am 1581976227

Mine too, makes for some interesting and occasionally heated conversation over the barbecue.

by Brock Landers | 18th Feb 20, 10:38am 1581975517

Generational inequality you daft idiot.

Egalitarianism is dead and buried in New Zealand.

by Mrs The Point | 18th Feb 20, 11:31am 1581978696

You'll have to excuse him, "he da man".

by mealsonmeals | 18th Feb 20, 11:18am 1581977889

A bit of light reading for you from this morning on how lower interest rates increase housing wealth inequality, while higher rates do the opposite.

https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2020/pdf/rdp2020-02.pdf

No one thinks everyone should have the same wealth. However, the low interest environments mean the haves or generation that have had the time to build capital are more advantaged, making the gap much wider more quickly.

by Crazy Horse | 18th Feb 20, 12:25pm 1581981927

@the man 2 .....and I don't want to live in a "skewed" economy of "corporate/employer" welfare with WFF, because businesses can't pay a decent living wage ....or that other favourite, the accommodation supplement to top up landlords rents ! .......OK then, you don't want to live with communism, well as a PAYE taxpayer, I will stop my tax dollar going to line your and corporations/employers pockets ! ...and then we would have your beloved neo-liberal "free" market". You rave about beneficiaries etc with "snouts in the trough" and not "working" for it, but you are on the same page and no "better" than them.

by Houseworks | 18th Feb 20, 2:56pm 1581990985

The AS isnt necessarily going to landlords. Sometimes spent on toys for the tenants.

by Crazy Horse | 18th Feb 20, 5:26pm 1581999988

....no Houseworks, it goes to pay increased "non market driven rents" which then goes into your pocket ....which I would not mind in the slightest, if it wasn't MY TAX DOLLAR paying the AS ! ......that's why I couldn't care less how much a CEO of a private corporation gets paid ...it's not my money :)

by Houseworks | 19th Feb 20, 6:04am 1582045499

It bothers me that our very own PM is one of the highest paid world leaders (if you can call her that). Though it would not bother me if we actually got some value for money rather than the crap performance day after day.

by frazz | 18th Feb 20, 12:59pm 1581983995

Yes that is why you should not vote for National the CCP party

by house hunter | 18th Feb 20, 10:20am 1581974433

Fascinating stuff with Auckland's HPI holding above 2900 for the 3rd consecutive month.

by Yvil | 18th Feb 20, 1:34pm 1581986067

"The total number of homes for sale in January 2020 was down 21.6% nationally compared to January 2019 - ... Not one region in New Zealand saw an increase in the number of homes for sale in January 2020 when compared to the same month last year"

From the REINZ report

by tothepoint - d… | 18th Feb 20, 12:04pm 1581980678

Hi Yvil,

That's because houses are prized possessions - and a reward for hard work and disciplined saving. House ownership is also a tangible measure of social status.

Because the prospects for the housing market remain as strong as ever, house owners are not inclined to sell - unless to upgrade to a better property.

Notably, these days very few people are selling property and transferring the money into bank deposits.

TTP

by Sluggy | 18th Feb 20, 11:19am 1581977997

Im beginning to think Yvil and TTP are the same person. Donny and Marie ish.

by Mrs The Point | 18th Feb 20, 11:33am 1581978806

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mkn1kFmUW5E

by Dogboy | 18th Feb 20, 1:38pm 1581986335

Of course they are, its been obvious for some time

by house hunter | 18th Feb 20, 12:02pm 1581980569

The bright-line rule has put significant downward pressure on the number of house sales.

by Merrydaze | 18th Feb 20, 6:27pm 1582003642

Unintended consequences pushing the purchase price of housing up, who would have thought?

by Ex Expat | 18th Feb 20, 10:43am 1581975798

CoreLogic estimate for my home was 102.6% of 2017 CV as at 16/2/20. A very modest increase from late last year. I'm not sure extreme views on either side can crow about this market. Slow and steady as she goes. BTW It was 100% on 21/10/18 and 96.5% on 11/8/19.

by theglc | 18th Feb 20, 10:47am 1581976020

To put the Volumes sold into perspective for AKLD

There have been 13 better Januarys this century
There have been 7 worse Januarys this century 3 of which were 09,10 & 11, post GFC

by CourtJester | 18th Feb 20, 11:50am 1581979824

Right? And in the meantime, population has increased by... a couple hundred thousand?

by Cowpat | 18th Feb 20, 10:50am 1581976239

The only remarkable aspect of this story, is the remarkable speed of the first reply .

by Fritz | 18th Feb 20, 10:55am 1581976503

yeah!
Some people are clearly obsessed!

by Roger Witherspoon | 18th Feb 20, 11:25am 1581978314

The RBNZ and the senior bureaucrats and politicians will be most pleased to see the value of their houses have risen, just as they planned. Their Tribe is so very important and they are very clever, at least they think as much, so to them it is true.

by tothepoint - d… | 18th Feb 20, 12:21pm 1581981693

Hi Roger,

Always good to hear from you.

Re the RBNZ, senior bureaucrats and politicians, many commoners are now applying the time-honoured wisdom: "If you can't beat them, join them".

TTP

by Withay | 18th Feb 20, 5:00pm 1581998405

I’m sure many an evil has been done with the rationalisation of that saying ttp.

by Due Diligence | 18th Feb 20, 11:05am 1581977109

The proposed amendments to the Residential Tenancies Act are going to seriously stuff up the rental market though. Can only hope there are common sense changes to the Bill through the legislative process, or a National/ACT government that ditches the changes all together. Otherwise things are going to get tough for tenants as well as landlords.

by Chairman Moa | 18th Feb 20, 11:12am 1581977578

With this corona virus dragging on it will be "- " in front of the 7% PHI shortly

by J.C. | 18th Feb 20, 11:16am 1581977796

Another article on interest dot today is "Mercer's David Scobie says share markets across the world were buoyant in the past year and New Zealand equities topped the table with an exceptional 32% return" only has 2 comments. I think we're probably looking an indicator of what makes NZers excited and where all their eggs are stored.

by Houseworks | 18th Feb 20, 11:21am 1581978062

Heard on radio news that wanganui is one of the areas to watch. Should have bought last year :(

by tothepoint - d… | 18th Feb 20, 11:38am 1581979138

Agree - W(h)anganui is good.......

But my money is still on Palmerston North. Despite some hefty rises in house prices, it's still relatively inexpensive to buy in PN. Further solid price rises are to be expected - especially in "old money" areas like Hokowhitu.

TTP

by Houseworks | 18th Feb 20, 11:58am 1581980334

I prefer wonganui to fonganui and funganui. The in laws moved there in the 2000s, so there are a few nice quality properties in wanganui but I have never felt the urge to snap up a "bargain" so to speak. We will stick with H town and good on those who have taken a step on the property ladder this last year (including Fritz although he seems to have turned tail)

by youngdumbandbroke | 18th Feb 20, 12:11pm 1581981098

Paid ~450k for our new build. 1 year on, its now been valued at 600k

by frazz | 18th Feb 20, 1:02pm 1581984120

Sell sell - bugger no then you would have to pay an "unfair" tax on that great gain. So unfair - it should be free money for your clever and hard work buying the property.

by youngdumbandbroke | 18th Feb 20, 1:45pm 1581986749

Sell then buy into the same inflated market? Sounds about as clever as your permaculture advice lol

by frazz | 18th Feb 20, 2:26pm 1581989184

You probably cannot pronounce this word "facetious"- but glad you are cracking yourself up.

Here are 5 Permaculture principles to help you start a garden
Catch and Store Energy – "Make hay while the sun shines" ...
Produce No Waste – "Waste not, want not" ...
Integrate Rather Than Segregate – "Many hands make light work" ...
Use Small and Slow Solutions – "Slow and steady wins the race"
Ignore Keyboard Kings who could not grow a weed

by youngdumbandbroke | 18th Feb 20, 1:57pm 1581987420

So by those principles, Sub-sahara Africa is the mecca of permaculture enthusiasts?

by Houseworks | 18th Feb 20, 2:08pm 1581988135

Having trouble to count to 5

by Withay | 18th Feb 20, 5:15pm 1581999333

In defence of Frazz, I now have a farm and I’m looking at introducing some permaculture practises to provide a bit of diversity, give the pasture more resilience to weather events we are currently experiencing and make better use of the resources we currently have. Permaculture doesn’t have to be some hippy buzzword as I think it may be seen now.

by youngdumbandbroke | 18th Feb 20, 5:38pm 1582000724

Is the farm your primary income or is it a hobby? Personally, I'd take the advice of someone who does it for a living over someone that has a hippy blog. Sure some of their ideas are great and are already in practice on some farms. It's the condescending nature towards conventional farmers that grinds my gears.

by Houseworks | 18th Feb 20, 9:39pm 1582015178

Congrats Withay, which area are you located. How many animals and what kind. I love being on a LSB

by printer8 | 18th Feb 20, 1:48pm 1581986922

Frazzled
Your comment sounds very envious and bitter.
Youngdumbandbroke made a great decision to go ahead and buy last year; he owns his (hers?) own home, has financial and intrinsic security for his family and he has increase his equity by $150k . . . but you can only be bitter about this.
I probably can’t fully appreciated the frustration that many first home buyers have, but at least I recognise that they exist.
It is about time some commentators stop making bitter unsubstantiated comments about the housing market and start to look at the reality of what it is doing and what are the implications.
During the winter last year I noted numerous drivers in the Auckland market which suggested that the market was bottoming and that FHB should act. This was countered by unsustained claims of bubble burst possibly fuelled by frustration, bitterness and anger.
Clearly dumbandbroke consider the variety of personal and market considerations and made a sound decision - so good on him.
Yes, there are some including myself who feel vindicated, but if we are to have meaningful discussion then there are a number of posters who need to acknowledge that their dire predictions didn’t eventuate and start to move on. Their postings today are more about denial rather than being insightful.
The debate should now be focussed on where the market is headed in the next year. There are a number of market drivers that have recently changed - immigration numbers including level of emigration, global headwinds, scaling down of trade wars, election year in both US and NZ, Brexit more certain, Convid-19 and implications for NZ trade and economy, possible RBNZ action in terms of LVRs and OCR, overvaluation of properties to income, housing supply etc, etc - and the impact of these on the housing market.
Embedded views highly influenced by frustration and bitterness don’t lend themselves to meaningful discussion and productive decision making.

by frazz | 18th Feb 20, 1:50pm 1581987052

Facepalm not you as well - I brought in Palmy 2 years ago...geeez

by Yvil | 18th Feb 20, 1:38pm 1581986332

Congrats, YDB

by youngdumbandbroke | 18th Feb 20, 1:49pm 1581986945

For me, the valuation doesnt mean that we have gained anything but more the fact that we havent paid more than its market value.

by printer8 | 18th Feb 20, 2:38pm 1581989886

YDB
Firstly congratulations - you would have had to make a goal and commitment to achieving a home and that you have achieved.
However, you are not quite correct that you have not "gained anything".
Firstly you have gained financial and intrinsic security for you and your family in owning a home.
As I have posted numerous times, many of my generation of boomers have gained their financial security through home ownership and for this reason I am concerned that there is going to be increasing number of renting middle class poor - those who continue to pay off the landlord's mortgage and walk away with nothing. What you have gained is that you - and your family - will not be one of those renting middle class poor.
Some other considerations:
- You are correct, that you have not got cash in the hand to show for this increase, however your increase in equity is important. As time goes on, you will be able to use this equity to finance a car, a family holiday or in the more distant future, probably either a holiday or investment property. Talk to a bank manager and you will find that their attitude is a lot, lot different to when you were saving for your home.
- The reality is that your equity has increased considerably; as your mortgage is static, if you have a 20% equity in your home, an increase in even 5% value, will mean a 25% increase in your equity. Not a bad tax free return when property is considered a relatively safe and conservative investment.
- Wealth is not measure by money in the hand/bank; rather it is ones assets less debts and your net asset (your equity) has just got considerably a lot bigger. Those with wealth are not reliant on cash in hand, rather their ability to leverage through their equity.
So rather than not gaining anything, you have gained much.

by youngdumbandbroke | 18th Feb 20, 3:03pm 1581991434

If you look at it that way, I guess there is a sizeable gain. I don't intend on investment property at this stage. I'd rather continue to improve our debt to equity ratio by sitting tight for the meantime, which will give more flexibility for future endeavours whatever they may be.

by printer8 | 18th Feb 20, 3:49pm 1581994167

YDB
"I'd rather continue to improve our debt to equity ratio by sitting tight for the meantime" shows that you are astute and have your head screwed on.
" . . give more flexibility for future endeavours whatever they may be . . . "; yes, you will have far more choices and financially secure than you would have if you were continuing to pay the landlord's mortgage off rather than yours.

by guwop | 18th Feb 20, 4:52pm 1581997925

Nah, don't borrow on your place. Be debt-free, have 100% equity. Then chill. I can highly recommend this.

by Yvil | 18th Feb 20, 2:43pm 1581990238

You have gained $150k which you would not have if you didn't buy and kept renting

by frazz | 18th Feb 20, 2:49pm 1581990562

Correction - only a paper gain of $150k - sell and you can bank it (less tax) and then go and rent or buy again ..rinse and repeat. Or get a perm and some culture lol (cracking myself up)

by Yvil | 18th Feb 20, 3:05pm 1581991508

Not true, he could spend 80% of his gained $150k if he wanted to (although it may not be wise)

by frazz | 18th Feb 20, 4:30pm 1581996625

And be in debt for $100K ..also you keep forgetting to pay the tax on the $150k ..why is that?

by Yvil | 18th Feb 20, 4:42pm 1581997361

As I said, it may not be wise to do so, but he can do it if he wants to. Also there's no tax to pay on the $150k, you got that mixed up

by youngdumbandbroke | 18th Feb 20, 2:59pm 1581991192

Exactly. Rent is money down the drain. Owning a house provides security but also a placeholder of wealth

by rastus1 | 18th Feb 20, 11:29am 1581978581

Great time to buy! Virus, drought, global economic data crashing everywhere. Just shows how freaken stupid many kiwi's are. Good luck chaps........you really have purchased at the worst time in housing history.

by printer8 | 18th Feb 20, 2:38pm 1581989937

rastus
Envious and bitter???

by Yvil | 18th Feb 20, 3:01pm 1581991305

Maybe just scared?

by Carlos67 | 18th Feb 20, 4:31pm 1581996715

You are correct rastus, problem here is that most people are in the bar of the Titanic arguing about house prices and sales volumes with each other while the ship goes down.

by Chairman Moa | 18th Feb 20, 12:30pm 1581982202

Australian government is introducing CGT for family home for all expat living overseas from June and this new tax will be applied retrospectively. Perhaps the COL should follow their footsteps ending all those empty houses.

by J-P | 18th Feb 20, 12:36pm 1581982616

Wellington flatting out. Interesting to see that Porirua is more expensive than Wellington city - I never thought that would happen. City median price in Feb last year was 767k now it is 755k (for Jan).

by Keen Observer | 18th Feb 20, 12:45pm 1581983124

I have not yet meet a single patients, that boasting their wealth..when consulting with us. Apparently this on going Wealth creation psyche is nothing to do when it comes to their Health condition. Most of them liked to portrayed as middle or low income during the consultation. Marvel eh?

by Boatman | 18th Feb 20, 12:51pm 1581983483

So now you cannot blame "foreign buyers " , they are banned , who are you going to blame for the high demand and similarly high prices ?

by Nzdan | 18th Feb 20, 1:51pm 1581987096

I blame Dame Edna...

by Houseworks | 18th Feb 20, 2:13pm 1581988424

Aussies! But let's not forget the singaporeans

by theglc | 18th Feb 20, 3:19pm 1581992365

OCR cuts of course

by Rob | 19th Feb 20, 12:12am 1582024358

Except aren't they are buying them through people already living here?

by custard | 18th Feb 20, 1:04pm 1581984287

Hot off the press:

"Dominick Stephens, Westpac chief economist, today also revised his national house price forecast from up 7 per cent this year to up 10 per cent."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12…

by J.C. | 18th Feb 20, 2:06pm 1581987995

Meh. Stephens is the modern-day incarnation of the medieval soothsayer. The defining common element of this is the herd-like mentality of the audience.

by VeryInterested | 18th Feb 20, 2:19pm 1581988745

Crystal ball stuff which the Westpac executive team take no notice of!

by mikekirk29 | 18th Feb 20, 2:27pm 1581989264

Sales in Auckland in last 3m are up 19% on same 3m a year ago.
In rest of NZ they are up 1.7%

Given how many consents are being granted, compared to 3 years ago (about 15,000 in Auckland in 2019) it is to be expected that sales would rise, otherwise, inventory would be rising fast. If we take stock in 2013 for Auckland as 525,000 and 60% of those as owned or on a mortgage, that implies that the total stock has risen by about 10,000 pa since 2013. Which means stock is up about 13%.
Sales are NOT up 13% of course, because property prices are up 75%.
Median price in Auckland remains below where it was in March 2017.

A lot of extra sales are due to a 40% rise in consents for townhouses since 2015.
These are priced mostly under $700k
Hence Papakura and WC sales are galloping ahead.
3m sales in Hibiscus Coast are only up 2% because the prices outside of Stanmore Bay are so high relative to North Rodney especially, whose sales are up 24% in last 3m
Given the Coronavirus impact on confidence, it is highly likely that sales and prices will be subdued or lower than 2019 sales and prices. Esp as Chinese immigration into NZ is 80% down on where it was 2 years ago.

by printer8 | 18th Feb 20, 2:41pm 1581990069

Yes Mike you may be correct; "Median price in Auckland remains below where it was in March 2017".
But house prices are up considerably since 2012.
What is your point????????

by mikekirk29 | 18th Feb 20, 3:27pm 1581992855

V simple: stock up 13%
Sales down
Prices up 75%
Concl: fewer buyers because too expensive
Pop up 200k also

by Carlos67 | 18th Feb 20, 4:28pm 1581996508

Wow some pretty sad comments on here. What is evident to me is that Kiwi's still have their heads in the sand with this Coronavirus. I suggest you guys read or listen to some other stuff being published, its not pretty. I don't think anyone even wants to talk about the possible effects this could have and more importantly it WILL have the longer the numbers infected continue to climb. We are now looking at the possibility of a serious crash if this gets out of control.

by Crazy Horse | 18th Feb 20, 5:19pm 1581999587

@Carlos67 ....nah mate according to Yvil, To The Point et al .... the housing "boom" is going on "ad infinitinum" !

I come on here to read their "positive" comments, as it shows in their truly infinite wisdom, about such matters, so there is "absolutely nothing to worry about" :)

So do you mean Coronavirus and its possible human and economic effects world wide, high household debt levels throughout the western world and China, house to income multiples at ridiculous levels, NZ wages out of kilter with the cost of living, global warming, climate change, rising sea levels, air pollution, plastics in the oceans, increasing economic inequality, trade war between USA and China etc etc

So many Kiwis truly have their "heads in the sand" and it will only be a real economic and/or human disaster that will change that mindset .....until then Yvil, To The Point etc and most of the general NZ population will be "spoon fed" the cutesy animal stories and "fluff" stories from the MSM ie granny herald (notice how anything that feeds this narrative is NOT on Premium Content ?) ...so yes, it is very sad, as I think so many people are not ready for what is over the horizon. And when something does happen, house prices are going to be the last thing on their minds !

by Pragmatist | 18th Feb 20, 8:59pm 1582012779

I've been watching the numbers.. its still a non-event outside Asia. The number of cases of people that have been infected outside of China and the plague ship off Japan are still next to nothing. A few in Singapore, but pretty much everywhere else is still in single digits for locally transmitted cases.

by mikekirk29 | 18th Feb 20, 8:48pm 1582012114

Are we meant to celebrate?
Apparently banks decided to loosen lending criteria for FHB at same time (coincidentally) that RBNZ out extra requirements on them for equity. This happened in November.
Just about when sales took off.
In the last 3m in Auckland there have been 3469 residential sales
In the 3m of 2012-13 equivalent sales were 4702.
Only a 26% drop.
Meanwhile Auckland pop has risen 200k
Stock has rien 13%
Prices have risen 75%
Wages have risen 29%
Now, I wonder why sales have fallen??
Australian report today meanwhile says low interest rates make rich richer while higher rates help the lower "orders"
Also today, mortgage costs average down 10% and no CGT
At same time, rents up 10%
And inflation we are told is 2%.
A higher and higher % of people in Auckland are renting and cannot afford to buy.
Which is great for those who already own and most of whom probably rent out 1 or more properties at $500 a week plus to people who are shelling out 40% of their net pay (minimum) on rent.
That sucking sound you can hear is the money going up the income scale month by month to w=those that hath.
Rentier-ship is not a good thing for an economy.
The top 25% can leverage up on cheap credit and buy up 40% of what is built for further rentals.
And so it goes on.

by Rob | 19th Feb 20, 12:14am 1582024447

What do they expect when they keep reducing interest rates? Many people who had money in the bank are now desperate to put that money into housing to benefit from capital gains and preserve the buying power of their money.