Housing is now a buyer's market - Tony Alexander

Property / news

Tony Alexander says buyers will have the upper hand as the real estate market hits its busiest time of the year

2nd Feb 22, 9:57am by Greg Ninness

Economist Tony Alexander

Economist Tony Alexander is declaring residential real estate a buyer's market, following the release of the latest Tony Alexander/Real Estate Institute of New Zealand survey of real estate agents.

Among the key findings:

FOMO (the Fear of Missing Out) has essentially disappeared from the market. Only 20% of agents in this month's survey have reported seeing FOMO on the part of buyers - down form 70% in late October. Buyer urgency has evaporated.
The number of people attending open homes continues to decline. A record number of agents have reported seeing fewer people at open homes for the second month in a row.
Fewer people are attending auctions. Agents report that buyers feel far less of a sense of urgency and that many are not in a position to buy because new lending rules mean they are unable to secure finance.
Worries about a lack of listings have all but disappeared.
More agents think that prices are falling than think they are rising, for the second month in a row.
Fewer first home buyers are in the market and their presence has basically collapsed since November after remaining virtually unchanged for most of 2021.
Investors are less interested in buying properties and more interested in selling.
A substantial majority of agents report less buying interest from overseas.

All of the above point to a buyer's market taking hold over February and March, traditionally the busiest time of the year for the residential property market.

"Real estate agents since September have been reporting more enquiries from property owners regarding the market value of their property," the survey says.

"This perhaps was an early sign that some potential vendors felt the peak in the strength of buyer demand was near and that the time might be right to sell while demand was good.

"Demand now however has fallen away substantially, listing numbers are rising, yet a net 25% of agents are reporting more request for appraisals coming through.

"This is good news for potential buyers as it suggests the rise in listings observed late last year will continue as we head into March which is traditionally the busiest month of the year," the survey concluded.

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100 Comments

by To the pint | 2nd Feb 22, 10:04am 1643749490

Good ol' 'Tonty', the smirking assassin

by tothepoint | 2nd Feb 22, 10:33am 1643751214

The DGM have consistently (and emphatically) bad-mouthed Tony Alexander......

Let's see what they have to say today.

TTP

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 22, 11:16am 1643753782

I used to bad mouth him but I have come around to him a bit. He does provide quite good analysis, and he's the only economist I know who has talked about the looming construction slump (although he doesn't seem as pessimistic as me).

One of the things I really detested a few years back was his constant line of FHBs needing to cut out the avocado on toast to be able to get a house. That was detestable, and I left BNZ because of it.

by gnx | 2nd Feb 22, 11:34am 1643754894

seems like quite a few have leaving the BNZ recently...what the hell is going on there?

by HeavyG | 2nd Feb 22, 11:50am 1643755808

RBNZ?

by streetwise | 2nd Feb 22, 7:21pm 1643782876

HouseMouse

Back-pedalling?

by 7jai | 4th Feb 22, 1:24pm 1643934248

Only liking comments that support your opinions, nice!

-7

by Averageman | 2nd Feb 22, 10:45am 1643751916

I have always thought Tony very analytical in his comments. Lots of supporting facts and stats. He is a good and humorous presenter and handles pointed question well. Have not seen him openly bagged on here...?

by Essen | 2nd Feb 22, 12:01pm 1643756486

He is regularly lambasted as a property lobbyist and spruiker by many. I think there may be some valid criticism of his methodology, but his conclusions on the property market since I've been reading him carefully since late 2014 has been right (in my opinion). His bad reputation, I feel, comes from the fact for a large portion of that time he said the market would continue to rise and people didn't like hearing that. In addition, his blunt message about avocados didn't go down well (although, post-CCCFA and stories of people having to cut subscriptions to get loans suggest that he may have had a point). He has been negative on property investment for 6-12 months at least now as the factors that underpinned that rise start to disappear one by one.

by RickStrauss | 2nd Feb 22, 4:03pm 1643771001

On avocados he missed completely the fact younger generations were outsaving their cohorts in previous generations. Hence folk saw it as a specious excuse and allocation of blame for the housing affordability crisis.

by J.C. | 2nd Feb 22, 2:50pm 1643766648

I have openly bagged his post-banking career research business and how it doesn't follow fundamental research considerations.

The smarm / smirk used to annoy me, but it's just his character. Best not to judge people by what you think you perceive.

by Theoracle | 2nd Feb 22, 8:54pm 1643788487

I know what you mean about his photo but if you've ever seen him present he's a really good public speaker.

by sit23 | 2nd Feb 22, 10:55am 1643752559

In one of his talks, Tony said that he gets information from all his surveys of us, crunches it, and regurgitates it back. "And you people think I'm a bloody genius." Please note that he doesn't use his own opinions, the opinions of "experts", but the opinions of ordinary people battling away in the present business environment. Give him all the personal abuse you like, but look at what he says, and has said over the last few years, and compare it with the other economists, most of whom are paid by people to say what they want.

by tothepoint | 2nd Feb 22, 12:49pm 1643759356

Tony Alexander has been measured and reasoned with his public commentary - which has typically been backed up with reasonable quantitative analysis. Importantly, most of what he's said (and forecast) has turned out to be valid.

The bagging he's attracted here tells us more about the baggers than it does about Tony Alexander.

TTP

by J.C. | 2nd Feb 22, 2:55pm 1643766913

Garbage. I've seen him use leading questions and his panel is basically a collection of people who subscribe to his newsletter. You cannot do "reasonable quant research" when your data set is loaded with its own bias. It's little more than hucksterism.

by JimboJones | 2nd Feb 22, 10:04am 1643749497

They normally back that up with the standard "we see a flattening of house prices but we don't think there will be a correction" (even though buyers would be stupid to pay such high prices in a buyers market)

I have noticed however that there are almost no "for sale" signs in our area (or any areas I drive around). Lack of both supply and demand?

by Richardfromauckland | 2nd Feb 22, 10:14am 1643750098

Which area are you in? (and driving around?). There seem to to be quite a few places for sales around centralish Auckland.

by JimboJones | 2nd Feb 22, 11:05am 1643753142

I guess I am in a different centralish Auckland to you...

by Richardfromauckland | 2nd Feb 22, 11:22am 1643754175

Guess I'm in the shelbyville version.

by JimboJones | 2nd Feb 22, 12:45pm 1643759116

My area has been promised a monorail

by Richardfromauckland | 2nd Feb 22, 12:58pm 1643759931

Ha!

by JustAnOpinion | 2nd Feb 22, 12:59pm 1643759949

To the airport and back, in all seriousness if these clowns had proposed a monorail for that I would not have even blinked. "To stupidity and beyond"

by Jesse1 | 2nd Feb 22, 10:53am 1643752389

Wanaka was at 100 listings in August and now they are at 162. Seems like a pretty big increase to me and it's rising quickly.

by Averageman | 2nd Feb 22, 12:39pm 1643758782

When the building boom stops in Wanaka half of the locals (tradies) will have to leave as there is no other work in that area.

by Rob Reid | 2nd Feb 22, 12:51pm 1643759484

Let them build cakes.

by Nzdan | 2nd Feb 22, 4:28pm 1643772484

If somehow they manage to build JUST enough houses for everyone there, the exodus of tradies will manifest an overshoot.

by Carlos67 | 2nd Feb 22, 11:04am 1643753068

Plenty of for sale signs up my street, problem is they all have SOLD stickers on them.

by streetwise | 2nd Feb 22, 7:43pm 1643784205

Yes, I posted the other day about my sister's street which runs up to Cornwall Park. When the last lockdown ended (early January) suddenly there were 5 (home-units) for sale (there hadn't been any for sale in previous few months).. Two or three weeks later they were all sold. The only property now with a for sale sign is a monolithically-clad large townhouse just listed for around $2,500,000. I see there are a few properties for sale at the beginning of Hillsborough Road just off Mt Albert Road and nearby on Mt Albert Road itself which are hanging around; these seem to be sticking.

I think that those properties in sought-after locations are still selling quickly and holding their price.

by The Last Realist | 6th Feb 22, 8:47am 1644090438

My street in khandallah has a number of sold signs up also but they have all been up since before November last year… looks like agents are trying to create an illusion that everything is still flowing…

by Miguel | 2nd Feb 22, 10:07am 1643749672

This is great news. Once the FOMO leaves the market we can get back to people making rational decisions based on whether prices stack up, versus what can they can actually afford.

and right now prices need to adjust to come back into line with what people can afford and the price in relation to rental income

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 22, 11:18am 1643753887

Despite this he hasn't adjusted his view of small house price increases this year.

by Nifty1 | 2nd Feb 22, 11:22am 1643754127

This sort of statement is designed to draw buyers back into the market..."Don't go anywhere guys...please, keep going to open homes...it's a buyers market"

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 22, 11:54am 1643756085

Yep.

He may not be employed by a bank any more, but it's clear where his biases still lie.

by Caughtinthemiddle | 2nd Feb 22, 10:14am 1643750085

Only yesterday his article in the Herald said conditions were changing but buyers shouldn't expect prices in all areas to drop, only in some while normally vibrant centres (Auckland) will flatten - go figure!

Then we have the latest data that shows a small but significant rise in average house prices.

I believe sentiment has changed but I'm not going to celebrate until that sentiment actually leads to a change in the data - here's hoping though.

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 22, 11:19am 1643753958

Someone made a good point elsewhere that this morning's data effectively lags a couple of months.

by Caughtinthemiddle | 2nd Feb 22, 11:25am 1643754310

Thanks for that info - gives me hope.

by Bananafishbones | 2nd Feb 22, 10:16am 1643750214

How bout we wait and reevaluate after tomorrow's news.

by company of heroes | 2nd Feb 22, 10:17am 1643750224

"This is good news for potential buyers as it suggests the rise in listings observed late last year will continue as we head into March which is traditionally the busiest month of the year."

I reckon this is the purpose of doing this survey. Some keywords "good news for potential buyers" "busiest month" means that the market is going to get busy, now it's the best time to buy, buy it or you will miss it. It summarised well. ;)

by Carinaz | 2nd Feb 22, 10:19am 1643750385

Tony the INDEPENDENT ECONOMIST. Who in the world, while introducing himself starts by clearing that he is independent. Him doing itself exposes.

2.4% rise in a month in buyers market. Cannot imaging what it would be if still in a seller's market.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/460694/property-values-climb-despit…

by sit23 | 2nd Feb 22, 10:57am 1643752668

Obviously, because most economists giving their soundbites are the opposite of independent.

by KBKIWI | 2nd Feb 22, 11:28am 1643754536

Prices fell almost everywhere outside of Auckland. Auckland pulled up the average to a monthly rise nationally however.

by Lord Dowding | 2nd Feb 22, 12:53pm 1643759624

No they didn’t Amigo, table is at the bottom of the article.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2022/02/national-property-values-d…

by RCD | 2nd Feb 22, 10:28am 1643750930

I was watching a Trade Me ad on telly and questioned their claim of a new listing every 3 minutes so did a quick tally of all properties listed yesterday for all values and came up with a number of 850. Thats a new listing every 1.69 minutes when averaged over the 24 hours and a new listing every 34 seconds if only counted over the 8 hr working day.

by ikimpaul | 2nd Feb 22, 10:49am 1643752148

Wow that was quick- that said as somebody watching the hutt valley he could be right.

Lower Hutt has 480 listings - the equivalent of 12 weeks stock.

Approximately 280 of which have been on the market over a month and 188 have been on the market more than 2 months.

Of the houses with a listed price 35% have dropped their price since listing - the average drop has been $64K on the listed price - a number of houses have dropped prices by over 100K and several at the top end of the market have dropped their prices by 300K including a house in Petone which was listed in Nov for $1.5M - now listed for $1.2M and a house in Sorrento Bay which listed at $1.9M and is now listed at $1.6M.

by VTHO | 2nd Feb 22, 11:01am 1643752910

But the other article told me prices went up in January. Why would someone drop the price of their listing if values are rising? This whole housing issue is a complete circus. I used to be proud to be a kiwi but these days I can't help but feel ashamed and disgusted at what this country has become. Labour or National, you get the same sh*t and I remain quite pessimistic about our future.

by ikimpaul | 2nd Feb 22, 11:21am 1643754104

The Hutt valley has only had a 0.6% growth in price in the last 3 months - the average house price has risen just 5K since Nov 1st. Nov was quite an active selling month, the market seemed to deteriorate from mid Nov.

by KBKIWI | 2nd Feb 22, 11:29am 1643754592

House prices fell almost everywhere outside of Auckland. The only reason last month showed a nationwide rise was due to Auckland bringing the average up.

by Lord Dowding | 2nd Feb 22, 1:07pm 1643760428

When making statements like this you should provide a source.

by The Last Realist | 6th Feb 22, 8:36am 1644089797

Yup I have been watching the Porirua market and am finding the same… houses passing in at auction with seller price expectation not aligning with what market are prepared to pay…

by Marky | 2nd Feb 22, 10:49am 1643752187

If you listen to Tony in 2008 you would have locked in long term interest rates at 8-10%. What actually happened was falling interest rates. There is still a storage of supply in New Zealand. We are in an inflationary period. What is a hedge against inflation? PROPERTY. So for all the pundits spruking a fall or crash you best wait.The smart money will be accumulating newly built or commercial property which affords the best tax advantage. The poor will remain poor and more people will become tenants with no spare cash. When the boarders open and the immigrants and tourists arrive the situation will favour those who have accumulated property.

by Jonny_Utah | 2nd Feb 22, 10:55am 1643752540

Can someone please explain to me when borders became boarders. It really takes the shine off assertions.

by sit23 | 2nd Feb 22, 11:00am 1643752825

Can someone else explain the phrase " storage of supply". Where is it stored, and what are the costs of this storage?

by Marky | 2nd Feb 22, 11:03am 1643752984

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/law-of-supply-demand.asp

by Marky | 2nd Feb 22, 11:04am 1643753075

😂

by Carlos67 | 2nd Feb 22, 11:11am 1643753513

Your worrying about the wrong things Jonny, my house went up $20K in January, best worry about housing. In case you didn't notice its not picked up in spell check and this forum has untold spelling and grammar errors. I think after reading the comments on here that spelling is going to be the very least of peoples problems in 2022-2023.

by Jonny_Utah | 2nd Feb 22, 11:30am 1643754640

I don’t have to worry about housing. Ours is owned outright.

Far more interesting is the productive economy. For the avoidance of doubt I wasn’t having a go at Marky. It’s a concerning trend I’ve noticed.

by Brock Landers | 2nd Feb 22, 1:33pm 1643761983

You're.

by Just Some Advice | 2nd Feb 22, 1:38pm 1643762330

Losen up mate.

by JustAnOpinion | 2nd Feb 22, 3:10pm 1643767854

You're worrying about the wrong things Brock. :)

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 22, 11:20am 1643754057

Its starting too great.

by Carlos67 | 2nd Feb 22, 11:24am 1643754242

Your cheasing me off

by Chris-M | 2nd Feb 22, 11:04am 1643753068

So if you are a FHB, do you leap in and buy, then loose your equity and a whole lot more when and if the market crashes or do you remain in limbo, waiting and hoping while you pay through the nose for rent for a hovel?

The only safe, rational answer is to not engage with the NZ housing market, leave the country and move to one with sane house price to income multiples. Our skilled ones will do this and be welcomed with open arms into countries short of skilled, hard working young people.

by Marky | 2nd Feb 22, 11:08am 1643753292

Where are you going to move too ?

by Chris-M | 2nd Feb 22, 11:49am 1643755770

Just about anywhere other than London,Los Angles, Hawaii, San Fransisco, Melbourne, Toronto, Sydney, Vancouver and Hong Kong.

Most of the rest of the States is very affordable

Most of England is also

Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth are all affordable. Perth is particularly attractive both financially and lifestyle. There are lots of other smaller very affordable places in Australia

Singapore surprised me.

etc etc. Just about all the rest of the world except NZ

If you have the skills you stand a good chance of getting residency in many countries

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 22, 12:34pm 1643758459

Even outer London isn't too bad, considering it's a world city.

You can get a semi decent, 3 bedroom semi detached townhouse in some of the towns within an hour's commute of central London, for around $NZ 900k.

Certainly no worse than Auckland, probably better. With higher pay, lower cost of living etc. Plus much lower mortgage rates.

by keriwin | 2nd Feb 22, 7:10pm 1643782244

I have a house for sale in Kidlington on the outskirts of Oxford for 450,000 pounds. It is 90 m2 detached bungalow and needs some work doing on it. Agent fees 1%.

by Just Some Advice | 2nd Feb 22, 1:33pm 1643762012

Yeah, ok mate, but those places don't come close to Timaru.

by LASSET | 2nd Feb 22, 11:31am 1643754700

We've decided to not engage with it, and buy a business for a similar price instead. I'll freely admit I've thought the Auckland housing market was substantially overvalued for a decade, so didn't purchase. In one way of course that was a poor decision, but I've always been much more interested in liquid assets than liabilities.

Thankfully it's been an incredible decade on other markets as well. So the choice to rent, and invest the difference between that and a mortgage has been a very good one for us. Both from a financial, location and lifestyle perspective. If there was a substantial (30%+) drop in the housing market I'd consider it though. I've never been a fan of buying anything near the peak.

by Just Some Advice | 2nd Feb 22, 1:35pm 1643762137

That's crazy talk! People on this site tell us if you rent, you'll end up with nothing!

(Congrats on your success)

by JustAnOpinion | 2nd Feb 22, 3:20pm 1643768405

Well I am glad you are at peace with it, certainly a revenue producing asset is a good one. Unfortunately there are few investments that have performed as well has housing has (sharemarket is close but had none of the tax breaks).

To emphasis this, a 30% drop is a good start but remember the cost of a house in NZ rose 27% last year alone.

by Mountie | 2nd Feb 22, 4:59pm 1643774346

None of the tax-breaks? Plenty of tax breaks. Imputation credits and interest paid is still tax deductible. Plus steady dividends, capital appreciation and companies doing stuff, good stuff. Works for me.

by powerupkiwi | 2nd Feb 22, 10:04pm 1643792644

Property prices track incomes in the long term (ours are low and stagnant). Productive assets do not.

A 30% drop doesn’t offset a 30% rise (it’s more like a 50% one).

$100 -> $150 is +50%. $150 -> $100 is -33%

by RickStrauss | 2nd Feb 22, 4:08pm 1643771314

In fairness it probably was overvalued were it a free market with risk and price discovery.

Unfortunately it's become clear it's more a welfare scheme for the wealthy. Money printers spin up and extra welfare comes in at the drop of a hat. Prices are only allowed to go up and no policy's allowed on the table that might cause otherwise.

by Essen | 2nd Feb 22, 12:08pm 1643756931

So if you are a FHB, do you leap in and buy, then loose your equity and a whole lot more when and if the market crashes or do you remain in limbo, waiting and hoping while you pay through the nose for rent for a hovel?

It depends... What and where are you buying, and what's your financial situation, goals, and your timeframe? If you're buying and need to sell within the next 12-36 months, buying may not be a good option. If you're buying with a good deposit and cashflows, and see yourself retaining the property for 10-20 years then buying may be a good option.

by Erewhon | 6th Feb 22, 8:44pm 1644133472

You are making it sound like doing an OE is a new thing just for this latest younger generation. Newsflash young NZers have been heading overseas to work and save money for decades. I was amongst the early 2000s brain drain. Eventually 70% come back home but cashed up and ready financially to buy a house. Mostly in their mid to late 30s. Hardly anyone does it before then unless they have wealthy parents with a handout.

by PineTreez | 2nd Feb 22, 11:11am 1643753484

Tides go in, tides go out.

We're currently close to the turning point of the high tide.

It ain't a buyers market until we're past half way to the low tide (if you can pick where that point may be).

by Carlos67 | 2nd Feb 22, 11:14am 1643753660

Correct, we are still waiting for the February figures to see if the tide has turned. If March is the busiest month then a turn in February could be considered double bad.

by Befuddled | 2nd Feb 22, 11:14am 1643753686

We're actively looking for a property to suit our next stage in life - my current experience is that although the market has slowed somewhat (in that places haven't sold within minutes of being listed), the markets in the areas we're looking are still very lively, with multiple properties selling for what we consider to be crazy prices. So we sure as heck are not seeing any kind of relief - in fact the exact opposite. The commenters on here that promote there still being time for upwards valuations appear to be absolutely spot-on. FML, it is a frustrating situation.

by Marky | 2nd Feb 22, 11:19am 1643753952

I think people need to realise that the talk of a market crash or fall is only related to the GROWTH in the market. The market may only rise 10% in 2022 not the 27% in 2021 hence a fall.

by Befuddled | 2nd Feb 22, 11:27am 1643754420

I am coming to that same conclusion. Although there may be some pain felt out there, I'm leaning towards the housing market once again proving its resilience, as much as I simply cannot understand where people are getting their money from and how the craziness we have seen continues to be supported.

by Sibrit | 2nd Feb 22, 11:15am 1643753750

So investors want to sell so they can lock in their 20~30% capital gains before house prices start to fall and they can no longer offset mortgage interest against their tax bill? No surprise there.

With these sorts of gains, they probably won't even care about the bright-line test and would pay the 39% income tax on the profit, albeit reluctantly, considering they made no effort to earn it.

But I don't see house prices falling. Just because there are less being bought/sold, the supply is still restricted and with the border openings potentially happening this year, we could see an influx of people needing housing.

by powerupkiwi | 2nd Feb 22, 10:16pm 1643793372

We will see an exodus of the demographic the boomers are relying on to cash them out. No sane person is going to move here to but a house right now.

by Nifty1 | 2nd Feb 22, 11:19am 1643753966

Independent Economist - brought to you by One Roof, Barfoot & Thompson, Ray White, Opes Partners, New Zealand Home Loans, First Mortgage Trust, REINZ...

It's always refreshing to get an unbiased view...

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 22, 11:21am 1643754119

Hehe

by Roy1 | 2nd Feb 22, 11:45am 1643755538

Best comment 😂

by mikekirk29 | 2nd Feb 22, 11:39am 1643755187

Listings rising in total because selling slower

Also 25% of listings are unfinished or not started

Finance restrictions and fear of Omicron plus deflation of government and RB largesse has flattened demand. Meanwhile consents and supply peaking. No immigration

Conds perfect for drop in sales of 30% cf last 12m plus drop in prices

by Dale Smith | 2nd Feb 22, 1:23pm 1643761397

'Also 25% of listings are unfinished or not started.'

And all the already unconditionally sold ones that are also unfinished or not started: the owners of which do not have confirmed finance, and now will either not get it, or only get it if larger deposits are put down etc.

Yet still have to settle regardless.

by HouseMouse | 2nd Feb 22, 2:35pm 1643765739

Not hard to see where that's headed...and it ain't a pretty destination.

by Contrarian | 2nd Feb 22, 11:48am 1643755694

So, if every one starts buying based on this, it will soon become a Seller's market ?

by ozzzy2 | 2nd Feb 22, 11:49am 1643755743

Now watch real estate agents, many void of any moral ethics, scream, yell and push (literally) from the rooftops - It's a "buyers market!" Buy now! Don't miss out! Get in quick! The end is nigh! Thus pushing prices up again.

by mikesh | 2nd Feb 22, 12:01pm 1643756510

DGM?

by Dale Smith | 2nd Feb 22, 1:09pm 1643760577

And pray tell - what is the true evidence of a buyers market, ie excess supply over demand?

It should be a fall in house prices on a like-for-like basis.

by mark_a | 2nd Feb 22, 1:18pm 1643761086

Outer AKL here…..

My take is market has cooled and will cool further.

Sales were going through in 1 - 2 weeks no problems up to Oct. It was crazy!

Now properties are sticking much longer and with prices on them not “neg” - that’s a clear sign its getting serious! Also RE agents are looking sad……..

I wonder how many people have upgraded and figured it would easy to sell the existing one afterwards - rising market right? Gets ugly in a falling market. :-)

by Notgreedykiwi | 2nd Feb 22, 2:08pm 1643764083

Really. That's a big lie. When an old shack is selling for multiple of millions, how can be a buyers market? The average salary is still sub 60k mate.

May be a buyers market for those rich listers who have millions stashed in their offshore accounts or in their mattress.

Unless there is a 30% drop in prices, it's not a buyers market. Stop lying to poor buyers.

Totally paid media news.

by CWBW | 2nd Feb 22, 3:42pm 1643769759

This is so hilarious that I nearly spilled my Chianti over lunch reading the comments above!

DGMs have now turned into fans for who used to be their most hated economist- all because he said something they want to hear.

There is no reason why anyone should blame economists for dodgy forecasts and bias analysis because that's what the consumer wants.

I got my computer boy to print the following in bold this afternoon to stick it on my office wall and it reads,

"I used to dislike XXX because he's against my views, now I find his work highly credible because it supports my narrative."

by RickStrauss | 2nd Feb 22, 4:10pm 1643771445

Russell Brand is experiencing that phenomenon right now.

by Firstclass | 2nd Feb 22, 3:54pm 1643770450

"Tony Alexander says" pink pigs fly.

I had to check my calendar to make sure it is not 1st of April.

Nice one Tony, I had a great laugh.

by Carlos67 | 3rd Feb 22, 6:53am 1643824425

Yes its a huge laugh, how quickly the recent 30%+ house price gains have been forgotten. There is no way its a buyers market now any more than it has been for decades. Its odds on for a dip in prices come March to May at which point all the DGM's will be jumping for joy telling us I told you so but it will still be insignificant when taken over the whole year.

by Carlos67 | 3rd Feb 22, 6:58am 1643824703

The new RV's that are now way overdue are due out this month. This should be an easier task now prices are forecast to plateau. Could have an interesting phycological effect of locking in the "Minimum Price" a house is sold for. The numbers will be interesting.

by The Last Realist | 6th Feb 22, 8:44am 1644090298

I can remember not that long ago, when houses on the outer extents of Wellington were selling for under RV, so not so sure those lock prices in. Well actually probably 8 years ago now. RV just as useless in a buyers market as in a sellers market