Another wave of house price falls is imminent, the Tony Alexander/REINZ survey says

Property / news

House prices expected to resume their downward trajectory according to latest survey by Tony Alexander and REINZ

6th Dec 22, 9:56am by Greg Ninness

Economist Tony Alexander

The latest survey of real estate agents by economist Tony Alexander and the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) suggests another wave of price falls is imminent.

The report summarising the latest survey results noted the REINZ's House Price Index rose by a modest 0.2% in October, but says that now appears to be an outlier.

"The decline in price observations of real estate agents captured by our monthly survey suggests a return to monthly price falls is imminent," the report says.

There were 74% more agents who felt prices were falling in their area at the end of November than who felt they were rising, up from 45% at the end of October.

In other signs the market is continuing to cool the survey found there has been what is described a a "sizeable decline" in the number of people attending open homes and auctions.

In the case of open homes that is a reversal from the previous month which found more people were attending open homes.

The report points the finger at recent actions by the Reserve Bank for the continued slowing in the market.

"The Reserve Bank's increase in the Official Cash Rate to 4.25% [and] predictions of a 5.5% peak and 20% fall in house prices have combined to push buyers back from the market for now," the report says.

In line with the generally quieter market there had been no sudden rush of requests for market appraisals from prospective vendors and there was also very little interest from overseas buyers.

"There is no sign people currently offshore are showing any firm interest in the New Zealand housing market," the reports says.

And as for FOMO (fear of missing out) motivating buyers, that appears to have all but disappeared.

"FOMO is essentially not present in the New Zealand housing market," the report bluntly states.

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111 Comments

by beau | 6th Dec 22, 10:07am 1670274474

*opens popcorn*

by IT GUY | 6th Dec 22, 11:23am 1670279022

I have a large plate of Pappadums, as I have consumed far to much popcorn lately. Hot Lime and Sweat Mango as well.... Sorry I picked all the green shoots, they where asparagus.

by Zaphod The Flatulant | 6th Dec 22, 11:45am 1670280301

"Sweat mango" must make it a little sweet, sour and salty.

by IT GUY | 6th Dec 22, 11:53am 1670280839

You got me there.... I had a sugar high after reading the list of vague statements making up the so called article, i noted no foreign buyers, no local open home visitors, no fomo, no local buyers..... In big letters beneath my notes I wrote NO BUYERS

What has made TA change his mind are the price prints going through.... and the fact that his old narative does not match what the media is reporting from the industry in places like Tauranga.

All credit to a man willing to change his mind.

by Yvil | 6th Dec 22, 10:13am 1670274804

TA predicting house price falls could give us hope, his track record of predictions is directly inverse to what is actually happening

by Snow | 6th Dec 22, 10:25am 1670275537

Are we going to start an Inverse Comber fund?

by HouseMouse | 6th Dec 22, 10:27am 1670275668

I thought you rated him?

by Yvil | 6th Dec 22, 10:56am 1670277384

As I said multiple times before HM, I like his TView data from the coalface (RE agents, valuers, mortgage brokers) and his graphs. I then come to my own conclusions rather than read his predictions.

by HouseMouse | 6th Dec 22, 10:47am 1670276823

That doesn’t really make sense Yves. You bagged his predictions but rate his analysis. Don’t they (or shouldn’t they) go hand in hand?

by Yvil | 6th Dec 22, 10:57am 1670277478

Again, I like his TView data from the coalface (RE agents, valuers, mortgage brokers) and his graphs. I then come to my own conclusions

by HouseMouse | 6th Dec 22, 11:18am 1670278680

Oh ok, you like the data he provides but not his analysis/predictions. Makes sense.

by Yvil | 6th Dec 22, 11:21am 1670278916

Yes

by Dgm | 6th Dec 22, 2:31pm 1670290305

Confused as ever :)

by mfd | 6th Dec 22, 11:07am 1670278036

I don't see a conflict here. It's just like how you would use the REINZ HPI report - lots of useful data in there, but the analysis at the top is pretty meaningless.

by Yvil | 6th Dec 22, 11:20am 1670278824

House Mouse, you mentioned the book "Rich dad, Poor dad" yesterday, I asked you if you had read it, maybe you didn't see my question. Did you read it?

by Retired-Poppy | 6th Dec 22, 10:57am 1670277424

...in sheer desperation for a crumb of credibility, TA's just gone "next level"

This time really is diffrunt!

Nothing worse than being relegated to the the corner of unbelievability.

by ozzzy2 | 6th Dec 22, 11:24am 1670279074

Well, house price falls have given me hope. But I'm normal.. (insert eye-roll here )

by mfd | 6th Dec 22, 11:55am 1670280904

You've got to keep up that NZ cognitive dissonance. A higher cost of living is bad, except when it is housing. High house prices are a sign of success, while high tomato prices are a national disgrace.

by ozzzy2 | 6th Dec 22, 3:50pm 1670295059

Despite your cognitive impairment, I am not in the market for tomatoes, I am in the market for a new house.

by sit23 | 6th Dec 22, 11:29am 1670279397

TA has a history of being more accurate than practically any other NZ economist. Since his going out on his own, the predictions are not his, but those of the people he asks. Horribly accurate.

by tothepoint | 6th Dec 22, 5:39pm 1670301544

The DGM have a very long history of bagging and berating economist Tony Alexander.

Interesting, therefore, that when Mr Alexander says something that the DGM happen to like, many of them lap it up as if he was their guardian angel. (Read their comments above and below.)

Turncoats if ever there were……

TTP

by Brock Landers | 6th Dec 22, 12:25pm 1670282758

The story about no longer calling other commenters names like 'DGM' was just another lie.

by Retired-Poppy | 6th Dec 22, 12:36pm 1670283411

Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha :) I wondered how long the sewer pipe would hold....

RP (aka Crash Crusader)

by tothepoint | 6th Dec 22, 5:56pm 1670302596

Hi Independent-Observer and Retired-Poppy,

Please note that the expression "DGM" remains permissible here. It's a descriptive term, as is "spruiker" and was used in that way.

Please also note that David Chaston used the term "DGM" in a parallel context in his insightful and worthy article of 4th December:

But will that also mean we are facing a recession? (Yes, I know, DGMs think we are already in one.) [David Chaston]

Thus, I take it that use of "DGM" is acceptable here. It denigrates no specific individual - but refers to a group of likeminded people. In this case, some of the DGM have clearly been duplicitous - hence my use of the perfectly apt word, "turncoats".

Nonetheless, if you have been offended/ upset/ hurt by my post, then I offer you my apologies.

TTP

by Retired-Poppy | 6th Dec 22, 3:08pm 1670292495

dp - pointless :)

by Chairman Moa | 6th Dec 22, 4:56pm 1670299009

"Nonetheless, if you have been offended/ upset/ hurt by my post, then I offer you my apologies." - sound like a "sorry, not sorry" statement.

by Juzz | 6th Dec 22, 9:10pm 1670314228

Although it just seems the people who in recent years have been labeled DGM's are mostly those who realized this cycle of loose monetary policy would follow its course and lead us to where we are now and where we're heading.

Spruiking is in my opinion when people and organizations ignore basic economic principles and history, then feed the sheeple propaganda to benefit themselves financially.

by meh | 6th Dec 22, 9:49pm 1670316547

Yeah nah IMO it's just another label that creates division and takes away from the actual issues being discussed. And it's usually used by those afraid to see past their own indoctrinated beliefs. It's practically a gas lighting term.

by CourtJester | 6th Dec 22, 1:21pm 1670286061

Solid logic there ttp.

When TA says X, DGM's disagree with him. When TA says the opposite of X, DGM's agree with him. And you call the DGM's turncoats?

by DTRH | 6th Dec 22, 2:09pm 1670288976

Looks like Tony is admitting he may have got it wrong for a while unlike others who still think they know best and will not admit to error’s of encouraging young couples and FHB to a lifetime of debt when they knew the housing market was crashing.

by Crazy Horse | 6th Dec 22, 2:15pm 1670289326

TTP ....read my comment below and what would you do if you were that mate of mine overseas - I bet ya $$$ to donuts you would not be buying personally right now.

Actually, carry on calling us "doom n' gloomers" , as in all our various thinkings and ideas, we all would like this housing market to settle down, with reduced down and upswings.

In the meantime, the more you refer to DGM'ers, the more I know you are still concerned about the way things are going in the market currently - so you are doing us a good service as to what is happening at the coal face, and for that I thank you and appreciate it.

by interesting1234 | 6th Dec 22, 3:16pm 1670292998

A broken clock is right twice a day, if he continues to make predictions, eventually one of them will be correct.

by Harvey W | 6th Dec 22, 3:55pm 1670295319

Now is a good time to buy...remember when the market rose 40% and we hoped it would keep rising - not likely. Market has fallen about 20%, is it going to keep falling in inflationary times - not likely

by DTRH | 6th Dec 22, 5:01pm 1670299291

The house price trend is down if you buy now you will be in negative equity this time next year, Harvey what make you think house price’s will not continue fall.

by Harvey W | 6th Dec 22, 6:25pm 1670304305

House prices will be rising again within 12 months

by Juzz | 6th Dec 22, 9:12pm 1670314327

Yet they'll fall a long way before any gradual rise starts to happen.

by Rumpole | 8th Dec 22, 11:39am 1670452756

SIT23 - In august TA predicted increased interest rates unlikely to exceed another 1% - at the time 3 Yr fixed rates were 3.5-4% now closer to 7% - reach your own conclusion.

by Crazy Horse | 6th Dec 22, 12:02pm 1670281343

Told a mate of mine, who has been out of NZ for at least 20 years and coming back, to not even worry about looking this year, but just watch an area you like and about mid 2023 start making low ball offers. While as far as I know, a RE Agent has to present "all offers" - no exceptions.

As he didn't get involved with all the BS that is the NZ residential property market in the last 12 years, he's a cash buyer, and sorry bankers, there is no way he will be taking out any mortgage.

This whole market is a complete "rigged" joke and as I have said before, the only ones to have benefitted are the banks, multiple property owners as can trade, some RE agents and all the "hangers on" ie advertisers, media, building supply co's etc ....all the rest just have been slaving their guts out, just to keep their head above water.

by HouseMouse | 6th Dec 22, 12:08pm 1670281682

Yes so really it’s only about 10-20% of the population that has truly benefited from this rigged system.

yet the governments that we have continued to voted in to office have continued to support the rigging.

by redcows1 | 6th Dec 22, 12:22pm 1670282537

I don't get out much but I'd say this is one of the few places where so-called DGMs have safely resided, probably why I don't get out much. Elsewhere about 80% of the population have totally supported the rigging by government house owners or not, with absolutely no logical analysis bar the mythical wealth factor.

by willamonte | 6th Dec 22, 2:23pm 1670289810

Nup, they might want to present all offers but they do not have to. I have very recent experience.

by nigelh | 6th Dec 22, 3:37pm 1670294240

I thought that was illegal. If not illegal then against the Real Estate Institute Code of Conduct or some such code.

by redheadonist | 6th Dec 22, 3:55pm 1670295343

you may like to use this https://www.rea.govt.nz/make-a-complaint/

and reference clause 10.10 here https://www.rea.govt.nz/assets/Uploads/Resources/Guides/Code-of-conduct…

by Crazy Horse | 6th Dec 22, 4:09pm 1670296149

Willamonte who have you been dealing with ? ..... as here is the answer from Real Estate Agents Act (Professional Conduct and Client Care) Rules 2012

10.10 A licensee must submit to the client all offers concerning the grant, sale, or other disposal of any land or business, provided that such offers are in writing.

by DMC45 | 8th Dec 22, 6:00pm 1670475653

I'm in a similar situation to your friend (though will need some mortgage). Was back in NZ in 2021 during COVID and got a pre-approved mortgage and looked pretty hard in three or four nice parts of the country....in the end I went screw this, the market is madness. Next year I'm ready to strike, and meanwhile pilling away more pennies...might not need much of a mortgage at all if prices ease down further by then...

by IT GUY | 6th Dec 22, 12:00pm 1670281235

This time he is right about the house price direction, but I think this is going to give more despair than hope to the people who own houses. It will give hope to the young and FHBers waiting on the sidelines.

by Grattaway | 6th Dec 22, 10:10am 1670274616

Excellent news

by HouseMouse | 6th Dec 22, 10:12am 1670274761

Lol

The ‘Worst Prediction by an Economist’ award for 2022 surely must go to TA for his prediction that prices would rise 5% in 2022.

An absolute stinker. He will be out by circa 17%

by Nellbell | 6th Dec 22, 7:20pm 1670307640

And rising, we still have two months of stats to go.

by tothepoint | 6th Dec 22, 7:55pm 1670309734

Hi HouseMouse,

Macroeconomic forecasters base their predictions on the best information available to them at the time of forecasting - and typically make ceteris paribus assumptions.

As time moves on and variables/indicators change, then they re-formulate their forecasts. Thus, forecasting is a continuing process - which depends on flows of reliable information. The on-going process keeps the forecasts up-to-date and as relevant as possible.

Tony Alexander uses standard forecasting procedures and protocols, in accordance with best practice. He has a good record of forecasting accuracy - despite the volatile times we live in. I'm not surprised to hear that Mr Alexander has earned a solid reputation within the NZ economics profession.

TTP

by agnostium | 6th Dec 22, 8:14pm 1670310877

WTF do you know about macroeconomic forecasts, how they are made and how TA makes his predictions?

by tomjones_04 | 6th Dec 22, 8:35pm 1670312159

They sleep in the same bed. I call BS on the economic calculations. His audience is pro property and have money invested in it… that has a massive influence on the outcome of what he reports. If he admits the truth, then he will be talking to an empty room. He needs to keep the paying customers deluded.

by Uncle Bulgaria | 6th Dec 22, 10:13am 1670274815

'Siri, show me the face of a real life Saul Goodman'

by Zen20 | 6th Dec 22, 10:32am 1670275943

better phone Tony

by Retired-Poppy | 6th Dec 22, 6:28pm 1670304523

"by December 2023, I predict your house will still be worth something"

by Smudge02 | 6th Dec 22, 10:13am 1670274818

Surely we can do better than this!

by Brock Landers | 6th Dec 22, 10:16am 1670275009

Last month captain charlatan was urging FHB to rush out and buy.

by Yvil | 6th Dec 22, 10:20am 1670275237

Can you substantiate this with a quote please?

by Brock Landers | 6th Dec 22, 10:31am 1670275906

I certainly can Yves.

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-the-riskiest-move-a-first…

And there's plenty more of his horse sh*t in the ten or so weeks since he wrote that if you can stand wading through it.

by malamah | 6th Dec 22, 10:42am 1670276569

Reading this is like trying to chew your way through dried ear wax.

How is this even remotely allowed? It's all fallacy and I'm sure he knows it too. A bunch of "I reckon"'s. We get better argued "I reckon"'s here in this comments section.

by rastus1 | 6th Dec 22, 10:44am 1670276678

The housing cycle has now entered the preparatory phase for turning back upward.

Love these new phrases of 2022. Transitory inflation and now we have preparatory house price rises.

by Dale Smith | 6th Dec 22, 1:07pm 1670285243

'now entered the preparatory phase for turning back upward.' ie going in the opposite of 'up', ie 'falling.'

But just can't quite bring himself to say it.

Clarke & Dawe

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQoT9xXRXtY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyaitC91hEM

has been replaced by Alexander & Ardern.

by rastus1 | 6th Dec 22, 1:27pm 1670286432

Can we please have this humour back on our tv instead of the mindless woke rubbish the cultural police feed us each evening?

by K.W. | 6th Dec 22, 2:46pm 1670291186

My favourite from an Aussie business site is "negative sideways movement" :-)

by agnostium | 6th Dec 22, 8:19pm 1670311140

"entered the preparatory phase for turning back upward"

That is a doozy of bullshittery.

So prices are still falling.

The very instant prices start falling they enter the "preparatory phase for turning back upward" until they stop falling and start rising which means they then enter the preparatory pause for turning back downwards. Strange he never referred to this preparatory phase for prices turning downwards at any point in the last decade????

Absolutely charlatan.

by Befuddled | 6th Dec 22, 10:43am 1670276617

^ The housing cycle has now entered the preparatory phase for turning back upward.

Vomit....

by Ideapenny | 6th Dec 22, 12:47pm 1670284061

You mean we're begining to see the signs of green shoots that the pre-preparatory phase for the softening of the rate of temporary pricing weakness is turning back upwards.

And remember only a fool tries to time the market. Smart people will pay any price, no matter the interest rate and economic outlook, because you never ever want to have to admit in public that you are paying off someone elses mortgage.

And PSA: the reason you can throw away all reason is because your house will be worth more at some point in the future!

by IT GUY | 6th Dec 22, 1:00pm 1670284847

I am sorry, but gushing, to inform you, that your offer is now part of a Multibid situation. I am giving you this last change to put your best foot forward and lift your offer. There is a lot of Interest in this situation.

by Befuddled | 6th Dec 22, 10:58am 1670277539

and "...even as prices pull back from the absurd levels of 2022" when previously, the market was healthy and those prices were underpinned by solid fundamentals.

Seriously???

by DDDDebt | 6th Dec 22, 2:18pm 1670289491

Yvil

More evidence your honour from Oct

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CjzP5nZO9VV/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y%3D

Belittling remarks towards first home buyers for standing on the sidelines and not taking on a record amount of debt servicing costs

I'm still fascinated that the FMA is not fascinated with Tony the comb

by Von Metternich | 6th Dec 22, 10:18am 1670275088

Pure commentator bait.

The smuggest, most punchable photo of TA you could possibly find and the bias confirmation of housing apocalypse.

More people visit for the comments than the articles on these pieces.

by Brock Landers | 6th Dec 22, 10:21am 1670275268

Got to pump up those ad impression numbers!

by Yvil | 6th Dec 22, 10:21am 1670275286

You're not wrong!

by Pragmatist | 6th Dec 22, 10:46am 1670276763

popcorn.gif

by interesting1234 | 6th Dec 22, 11:18am 1670278720

This article has officially kicked off the silly season

by Chairman Moa | 6th Dec 22, 11:22am 1670278951

Another .75 from RBNZ in Feb 2023 and it will be the final nail in the housing coffin!

by Rumpole | 8th Dec 22, 12:18pm 1670455128

Chairman - Orr has a bag of hammers on his christmas list.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 6th Dec 22, 11:30am 1670279401

Time to move on from property and start discussions around which productive businesses to invest in until house prices bottom out. Probably we have a few years til we start to talk about what wooden box on a tiny section - with no decent infrastructure... we should spend our $million on.

No sense flogging the housing-horse whilst it withers and dies.... Luxon, Orr and Robertson will continue to strive to revive it (in absence of any other visions for our economy).

by malamah | 6th Dec 22, 11:39am 1670279944

The banks may favour safer and more liquid markets in the meantime, as for where that safe harbour currently lies… maybe look at some of the low rate loans favouring energy saving.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 6th Dec 22, 12:35pm 1670283325

My money is in productivity enhancing tools.

- Energy prices will continue to fall (regardless what Russia/Saudi does with production ) as people consume less and usage and demand for oil/gas drops. I personally think part of the reason for reserve banks killing demand so fast is a reaction to Russia-Ukraine and Saudi activities - to lower the western reliance on eastern fuel to prevent our being blackmailed. As we ramp up local energy production via green means.

- Wages are now very high (result of boom/demand and inflation) making the use of human resources expensive for businesses - so businesses will invest heavily in technology to improve output per human, and reduce their cost of sales. This will be the big play and the one to watch closest. Probably quite contentious... but people who pushed up their salary for relatively unskilled or outdated skill-sets - should look to retrain. people with tech skills should look to start or work for productivity enhancing businesses which will attract investment and higher wages.

- Physical assets - land/houses etc - will drop in value. When job security is the primary issue people will take action to reduce their living costs not invest in that. related industries will suffer unless adding some return to asset owners. Housing is a bust industry - way overvalued and too many jobs and too much wealth creation now wealtj destruction.

- infrastructure investment for governments will favor specific areas over others. roads will start to attract less investment as people favour public transport (cost of living and climate change), water and mental health (pandemic then recession). police (recession = crime)will also do well as they are starting to creak and fail. Local green energy production will grow (security)......

- Banks will struggle. they are stuck in an old world. new borrowing and investing platforms will take market share. banks will incur significant losses from housing and business loans at low interest rates which suddenly become unsrvicable.

Always keen to hear about other key opportunities or thoughts.

by malamah | 6th Dec 22, 1:23pm 1670286233

I'm with you on productive and green technologies, though don't see a long term future for EV batteries. Looking more towards the sustainable fuels alley for now - I guess this is "green energy".

In terms of productive technology, it's difficult to know where to look or start. Outdated manual processes everywhere however some of these processes may be made redundant in the near future due to lack of demand for services more than technological efficiency. Any technology which helps make construction more efficient would be a good start, as that's about as cumbersome as it gets here in NZ.

Would be keen to know if people have strong opinions on where productivity could be improved using technology.

by Nellbell | 6th Dec 22, 7:19pm 1670307567

Listened to a podcast last night with Mohamed El-Evian guest speaking on it ( the Economist - New Rules for Investing). Seems like we are going to need a huge mind shift to meet the changes that are on our doorstep. I don’t understand much about markets, but things I have read/hear about them points out that many are not responding in a way that anyone expects they would be ( ie all markets, including housing, have suffered/or are going to suffer losses this year, even the safe harbour market of gold has fallen). Also seems that the thought is that inflation could be “sticky” and that we may need to “learn to live with it”. You may have also heard El-Evian saying that he thinks the times of central banks intervening to prop up organisations/ markets are over.

I agree with you about retail banks, they have lost their way. We saw them over the years pull away from supporting businesses and having relationships with clients; being part of the business community to becoming house mortgage lenders, working on a call-centre model.

So yes, I think what you say is right, we can’t just hope that things will go back to the way they were and put all our money into property and hope it will grow. We may need to try to educate ourselves ( well many of you won’t have to; I will) on how to invest in “productivity enhancing tools”, businesses that grow our economy and communities.

I saw a post from Uncle Bulgaria today on the gib board story today, he compared us to Scotland and said he is surprised at how we tolerate greed. I think we really do, and I think some people even admire greed. Being greedy and hoping to get something for nothing has been one of our problems. When you get something for nothing, it comes at a cost to someone else, usually those most disadvantaged. I recommend finding and watching the documentary “The Flaw”.

by kazadi | 6th Dec 22, 6:52pm 1670305931

More people will be riding bicycles and eating chicken..

by IT GUY | 6th Dec 22, 11:45am 1670280307

Tedious, trolling comment deleted. - GN

by malamah | 6th Dec 22, 11:54am 1670280899

Comments today in PI land over on FB (paraphrased): NZ property market is dead, even National can't save it.

Edit: To be fair, there is a measurable amount of hope National can swing this around.

by IT GUY | 6th Dec 22, 12:29pm 1670282998

Fair cop Greg, I let emotion get to me from the enormity of the situation.

by DTRH | 6th Dec 22, 11:52am 1670280752

Good that Tony has finally seen what has been happening with house prices just a little late, I feel sorry for the people who has taken his advice and are now on their way to negative equity in some place’s price’s are already down 20% anyone who purchased over last couples year will have huge debt burden and as rates continue to climb many will be in financial difficulties.

by MLSmith1 | 6th Dec 22, 12:37pm 1670283425

Oh!... is Tony not so sanguine now

by Chairman Moa | 6th Dec 22, 12:42pm 1670283764

Interesting about Wellington market. This is my old flat many moons ago when I was studying at VUW.

Not long ago the asking price would be above RV, a pretty big haircut now!

https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/residential/sale/wellington/wellin…

by Crazy Horse | 6th Dec 22, 2:45pm 1670291100

CM ....some back of the envelope figures for you ....buy @ $1.285m ......deposit $385k .....mortgage $900k @ 6.99% pa = $1,379 pw

Then rent out at $1,200pw .....so rental pa is $62,400 - mortgage P & I pa $71,708 = loss $9,308 plus rates/insurances/mtce etc $15,000 approx. = -$24,308 loss (assuming in this market no current capital gains) ....could even be capital losses ???

A nice house, but a classic example of not a great investment.

by K.W. | 6th Dec 22, 3:14pm 1670292895

You dont get $1200 cash a week, you have to pay 30% (or more) of that to the Govt in tax now. Now recut your numbers.

by Crazy Horse | 6th Dec 22, 4:00pm 1670295655

fair call .....as I said it was a "back of the envelope" calculation - however that only makes it a worse return now.

by Chairman Moa | 6th Dec 22, 3:59pm 1670295586

Yeah nah, after staying in sunny Brisbane for few years - Someone has to pay me shxt load to live in Welly again.

Anyhow, we used to pay $335/week for this back in mid 90s and wasn't in this condition at all.

I still remembered going away for a week and came back with my shoes turning fluffy green from dampy moulds!

by Brock Landers | 6th Dec 22, 5:10pm 1670299808

✈️ ✅

by IT GUY | 6th Dec 22, 6:04pm 1670303061

Yeah that market has been nuts, I know a couple that divorced and luckily they got out at nearly the ding dong top. Take a look at Turangi where people are still asking 40% over CV/

by Retired-Poppy | 6th Dec 22, 1:20pm 1670286028

"And as for FOMO (fear of missing out) motivating buyers, that appears to have all but disappeared"

Is anyone surprised this article omits those experiencing FONGO in exponentially increasing numbers?

by IT GUY | 6th Dec 22, 1:19pm 1670285950

You mean Pent up Supply

by Retired-Poppy | 6th Dec 22, 1:25pm 1670286316

Yes. The coming avalanche of the once adored brick and mortar.

by Chairman Moa | 6th Dec 22, 1:23pm 1670286231

FONS now

by IT GUY | 6th Dec 22, 1:40pm 1670287216

So this is what schadenfreude means.......

The thread is thick with it today.

by House-Hunter | 6th Dec 22, 2:46pm 1670291168

Offensive comment deleted. Mind your manners when commenting please. - GN

by IT GUY | 6th Dec 22, 2:48pm 1670291308

I wonder if Cameron Bagrie could be tempted.....

by IT GUY | 6th Dec 22, 3:43pm 1670294600

Maybe I missed it in all the commotion but Tony A, has not made any price predictions here, (I checked the full pdf report as well). He is now just predicting direction, ie next move is down and its imminent.

I wonder, seeing as he is so experienced in these matters, if like the other economists (Zollner et al) he could hazard a guess at a few levels?

Maybe this predicting the future stuff is fraught with danger.

by tomjones_04 | 6th Dec 22, 4:50pm 1670298626

Tony’s reputation is in the toilet anyway. His clearly biased predictions are about as ridiculous as his smug perm. I’m pretty sure he is HW2.

by HouseMouse | 6th Dec 22, 6:35pm 1670304915

Economyths are often their own worst enemies. For example, ANZ have looked really stupid giving very precise numbers eg. A 13% fall.

Better to talk in ranges and scenarios, and put caveats down.

by Nzdan | 6th Dec 22, 10:36pm 1670319381

If they throw enough "precise" darts they're bound to make a couple stick, and pretend the other 100 or so didn't ever happen.

Google search -> 404 Error Site Not Found.

by Firstclass | 6th Dec 22, 6:40pm 1670305206

"House prices expected to resume their downward trajectory according to latest survey by Tony Alexander and REINZ"

Also known as Tony reading tea leafs or palmistry hand reading.

http://st.depositphotos.com/1394326/1249/i/450/depositphotos_12495039-s…

by WellingtonInvestor | 6th Dec 22, 7:37pm 1670308622

Why are they calling it another wave. The current falls haven't stopped.

by Nzdan | 6th Dec 22, 10:55pm 1670320520

Today in the things that are Facebook Property Investors Chat Group

Bought apartment in Papakura 3 months ago. It's "brand new, really nice".
Scared with the market falling they will never get their money back.
Freaking out, "I think we have done the wrong thing".
New to investing, leveraged their equity from existing house.
Rates are rising, they'll have to top up the property $1300 per month on INTEREST ONLY

OOPS LOL

by Nellbell | 7th Dec 22, 7:11am 1670350302

Yes someone posted this earlier on another thread. How can an adviser have talked someone into an investment property 3 months ago!? We all knew in October, and well before that, property was a very uncertain proposition. I would have guessed these “property investment advisors” would have been very busy helping people reorganise their portfolios ( divesting properties), but suspect that’s me being very naive. I think the only hope for this family, if buying off plan, is that this development will not get enough presales to proceed or that the whole project timeouts in its sunset clause ( I really hope they have a sunset clause). This is a sad story. Do you think these “property investment advisors” work with specific developers ( AND their banks) to fill the required presales to enable bank funding of the project?

by Averageman | 9th Dec 22, 2:59pm 1670551144

Agreed the writing has been on the wall for some time but still people buy into clearly loss making economic schemes. This is why DTi should be brought in, to save people from themselves, especially with the nanny state Govt.

End of the day there is one born everyday...