REINZ says sales volumes rose in 2018 compared to 2017, although price trends were mixed - expects 2019 to be a good year for the industry

The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) is optimistic about the outlook for the housing market in 2019.

In its review of the the residential property market for 2018, the REINZ said 72,188 properties were sold throughout the country in the 11 months from January to November, up 4.2% on the same period of last year.

In the Auckland market, 21,202 properties were sold between January and November, up 4.0% compared to the same period of last year.

And in the rest of the country excluding Auckland, 50,986 properties were sold, up 4.3% on last year.

However while sales volumes were up, price trends were mixed, with prices being slightly lower overall in Auckland compared to a year ago, but up around the rest of the country.

The median price in Auckland started the year at $820,000 in January and was $867,000 in November, slightly down on where it was in the same period of 2017, when it was $830,000 in January and $880,000 in November.

In the rest of the country excluding Auckland, the median price rose from $399,000 In January 2017 to $450,000 in November 2017, and continued to increase this year, rising from $450,000 in January 2018 to $485,000 in November 2018.

Houses were also taking slightly longer to sell.

In Auckland the median number of days it took to sell a property over the 11 months from January to November this year was 36, compared to 35 in the same period of last year.

In the rest of the country excluding Auckland, the median days to sell increased from 32 to 34 over the same periods.

The total value of residential property transactions increased by $3.13 billion, rising from $44.60 billion in the 11 months from January to November 2017,  to $47.73 billion over the same period of this year.

"2018 has certainly been an interesting year for the real estate industry," REINZ chief executive Bindi Norwell said.

"We've seen record median prices reached in many parts of the country, strong sales volumes, a significant amount happening on the regulation front and just recently, the foreign buyer ban and the changes to LVRs.

"All in all, we expect 2019 to be another good year for the industry," she said.

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55 Comments

Just 10 days left for that much awaited property crash in 2018. :)
Hope you all have a great Christmas and I hope that those FHB get to realise their goal of homeownership in 2019.

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If I were a FHB, I'd definitely wait, despite this overly rosy forecast from a vested interest. They seem to have their blinkers on to what is happening in the rest of the world, including just over the ditch (down -10% in Sydney and accelerating into 2019). Odds are some affordability will return sooner rather than later in the form of significant price declines. It's not different this time.

FHB's are FHB's, by definition, because they wait to buy

Yvil, actually most are the next generation. i.e. the people you believe are completely at fault for being born too late therefore should pay through the nose.

"the people you believe are completely at fault for being born too late'"

You sure enjoy making stuff up, this is such nonsense

Yes you guys need to give up on the boomers wrecking your life crap and the born to late thing is a joke, no one gets that choice you have to play the hand your dealt in life, quit whinging.

I was correcting Yvil for saying FHBs are just that because they wait. When really what they are doing is having to save the monstrous deposits that are a requirement to purchase in todays market. If you want to say FHBs are all DGMs waiting for the market to tank you're naive. They're mostly the next generation trying to get into the housing market. Though I'm glad I've got you telling me to pull up my socks and quit whinging, that'll turn around our lowest home ownership rates in 66 years.

Well spoken, printer8.

First-home buyers - don't be discouraged........

There's a reasonable chance that housing affordability will improve in 2019, via lower interest rates.

To everyone who comes here, a very merry Christmas!

TTP

Merry Christmas to you. Hope everyone has a great one. :)
I think there could well be lower interest rates coming. I think at the moment they might be quietly kicking themselves that they are already so low, and in Australia. When the property bubble bursts and prices plummet, what can they do? Send them to zero or even less? Oh then there will be affordability for FHBs, if they still have jobs by then.

The world will probably end in 2019, things have gotten so bad there is little point even getting out of bed. The only thing left to do is scan the news for more signs of the inevitable apocalypse. Eat, drink and be depressed because tomorrow there will be be a real depression. There is nothing you can do!

I suspect that is sarcasm!!!

Unfortunately it is a very real possibility in the economic sense, and to be honest I dont know how it can be avoided.

If the whole world is not in recession or depression by end of 2020 I would be very surprised.

However the sun is shining today, make the most of the good times while we have them.

FHBs your xmas gift will be plummeting house prices over the next 2 years, especially in Akld.

Happy xmas everyone.

If I had a dollar for every time a person predicted a recession and was wrong...................... let's just say I wouldn't be worried about recessions.

"When the property bubble bursts and prices plummet........"

Somebody's self-interest has gone into overdrive!

The evidence shows that the NZ housing market is going through a lengthy and stable soft-landing - supported by a robust economy.

TTP

Absence of evidence is not evidence of a crash not having occurred - or about to occur. You don't know - what you don't know. This is called the argument from ignorance, if it's not impossible, then it is possibly true and entire narratives can be built from what could possibly be true - without any evidence whatsoever.

Agent TTP, are you telling first time buyers that Auckland house prices won't decline in 2019 and that they should buy now? This all said in spite of it being currently cheaper to rent too - "Hi5"

Times are becoming more toxic for investors by the day with incoming ring fencing legislation, insulation deadlines and capital gains taxes.

First time buyers should sit, save and watch it all unravel.

Hi R-P,

Clearly, first-home buyers are ignoring your advice in droves - and wisely so.

TTP

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Fhb here, not convinced by ttp. I think I'll hold onto my money thx.

First home buyers waiting in Sydney are watching prices drop by over 1 percent per month at the moment, and so many people told them all was fine with a robust economy - the envy of the world in fact. So yeah, I'd be waiting. Seeing ahead that it's going to crash in Auckland is not much self interest. I stand to lose a certain amount in the short/medium term but have made plenty as well (not just on paper) as the Sydney and Auckland bubbles inflated. I'm as ready as I can be and not nearly as exposed as those who are highly leveraged. It's just what I see so obviously coming. I honestly do not want to see so many people get financially ruined by this.

Why are you guys gloating on historical data. .
Focus on what's happening currently. . In the last week, auction results for Auckland, 8 sold below RV, 1 sold above. .

Even last week is historical, focus on what could happen, especially the very very worst case scenario that way you will be as safe as if you were in maximum security prison.

Ah speaking from experience.

Hope you came out just the way you went in

Interest rates are forecast lower and immigration holding around 60k p.a. The property market won't crash and people won't sell unless they are forced to. NZ is a desired place to live compared to the rest of the world. Don't wait too long get in the market otherwise you'll miss the boat again. Good properties will always sell well, the rubbish ones not so well.

Yes, X country is different to the rest of the world and the property market can't crash here. We're exceptional, different from every other market, and not in a bubble. I also heard this a lot in Sydney, before I sold before the bubble started bursting.

Now that Australia and Canada are crashing, that just leaves us at the top of the pile for having the highest property price to income ratios in the world. Or could it be that we're about to follow as our property market simply lags Australia's?

The real issue is that with prices improving so much in Australia, the investment value of NZ property just can't compare. It's a bad deal. And people will just buy in Aus.

Why is the measure for the 11 months only? That's not even a full year. Seems like an odd choice of date range.

Why not present the data for a full 12 months?

How about 6 months?

11 seems odd

They are providing figures for 2018 and don't have December's numbers in yet. They will supply those (i.e. the full calendar year) at the end of January I presume.

What is strange is why no national median price figures. Only Ak v NZ????

Yep, I'm well aware that the 11 months of Jan to Nov is a calendar year, and thus correctly comparing it to the same period last year. My question is why didn't we see a "10 months leading to October" comparison last month, and so on and so forth.

Why not compare "Dec 2017-Nov 2018" to "Dec 2016 -Nov 2017" to have a full year comparison. It just seems like not including the Decembers would skew the data and ruin their narrative, otherwise they would have included them.

And yep, agree with your statement on lack of national median price - it seems they are leaving out a lot of details on purpose.

Can someone present the numbers for 2016 - as previous comparisons to 2017 Oct and Nov figures have already been proven to be irrelevant due to the big drop off in listings last year due to the election.

Nic Johnson, you used to track the number of properties for sale on TradeMe, haven't heard from you in a while, can you tell us how many there are now, would be interesting since it's the last proper business day of 2018. Did they ever make it to 15'000 ? (I think that was your prediction)

Yvil, ...are we still currently sliding towards another great depression? That was your prediction. Should all readers dig their bunkers?

by Yvil | Fri, 04/05/2018 - 13:36 "So be brave and let the great depression happen, it's the purge the whole system needed. It's much better than the long slow downward spiral we're on now, which will still lead to a depression"

Back on topic (sales volume in 2018), how many properties for sale in Auckland on TradeMe?

Yvil, https://www.trademe.co.nz/property

Want instructions on how to bookmark it too?

So the answer is 11928, quite a few less than 13'000 of a month ago and a long way off 15'000

Massive, massive dropoff in auckland listings, same thing has happened in Hamilton, where I am, which is down around 1/8th. Fewer listings and increasing sales means less buyer choice and probably rising values. I dont normally check those numbers so thanks for the reminder Yvil, Merry Christmas.

There is this thing called the Xmas holidays... Listings always drop as people don't want their holidays ruined by open-homes and buyers are away on holiday anyway. Lets see where we are at the end of Feb when things are more back to normal.

This is a normal trend that happens every year..? Welcome to situation normal

yes, the massive drop in listings, and open homes and sale over the mid decembet to mid january period is normal. Not a sign of low supply of housing and a reason for upward pricing pressure like you spruikers are making out.

Nic was optimistic with his 15,000 number, but not that far off. 13,000 (or whatever number it reached at the end of November is a sign of a healthy supply of houses, not matched to the same extent by willing/able buyers.

Retiring-poppy can you please explain your take on these auckland listings numbers. It looks to me a positive sign for 2019, what do you think?

Tick-tock, tick-tock. Where are you Crash-Crusader...busy preparing your xmas wishlist??

Bindi is a bullshitter of the highest order

Bindi and evil are sisters

To be fair I would be more worried about the sharemarket crashing than house prices!
Houses are backed something saleable, shares are only worth how the business is operating and I see headwinds ahead worldwide.
That is why positively geared housing is the best investment one can have!
Merry Xmas to all!

Isn't landlording a business? But your saying above that you wouldn't want ownership in a business (i.e. shares) because the businesses may not be operating well? And yet you own 100% of the shares in your business? Is that it? But when you see headwinds ahead for business worldwide, your landlording business is some how immune from this? How does that work? Do you sprinkle fairy dust on your rentals in Chch?

I'd much rather own shares given the liquidity and diversification they provide across markets, industries and currencies - if houses tank in NZ for the next 20 years...well good luck with that.

House prices are only backed by the number of people willing and able to throw silly money about for them. Stockmarket crash (and it is.. S&P down ~17% in a month and a half: https://ibb.co/mBKTvYB ) leads to poor business outlooks, and no employment growth. Overinflated house prices will follow.

S&P just closed down again 2% today

The Dow Jones is off nearly 20 percent from all time 27000 points high. With increasing US interest rates I think it has further to fall so its best to keep money out of shares. Merry xmas TM2

What was the rate of growth of shares vs house prices in the US since the gfc?

Amateurish talk

"Submitted by PropertyPrices2Fall on Fri, 21/12/2018 - 11:32
Why are you guys gloating on historical data. ."

Geez. You are an amateur. .

Your statement is about current drop in prices, which comes down to fundamentals. .hence my statement about the comparative rate of growth. .

You are like a parrot. . Just bleat out without thinking. .

Thanks propertyprices2fall! Merry xmas

Merry Christmas to you and your family.

All the very best for 2019.

Yes its a bit sad but your house has been the best business to own for the last 15+ years. Really its just an indictment of how crap companies are in NZ, I know because working here has been hell for just about all my life and its great to have finally bailed out and am no longer reliant on working for them. If I was to give financial advice to anyone younger who was really smart it would be to get self employed and then buy a house ASAP.

Landlording is a business of course!
However providing it is positively geared and you have enough of them then you will be just fine.
People have to have shelter and will always need rentals.
Personally don’t give a rats what house prices are doing as we don’t tend to sell!
Different strokes for different folks as they say, and if you are happy with shares and equities then good on you.
We have got plenty ourselves but not through our personal investing!
Hate to know how much the financial advisors have lost from the portfolio recently!

Please learn to reply inline..

You should be worried, what happens when a bunch of your tenants lose their jobs if the economy tanks? Vacancies, and having to lower rents to what people on the benefit can afford to get tenants in to pay (some) of your mortgages. Might not be so positively geared if rents drop 20%.

Don’t reply inline as not everyone goes back and reread!
We got no probs with properties being empty!
Won’t explain why in here though!

Merry Christmas everyone, even the DGM's because the sky has still not fallen in for yet another year.