REINZ says sales were down at a time when they are normally strong; Auckland had lowest number of sales in a non-January month since 2010

REINZ says sales were down at a time when they are normally strong; Auckland had lowest number of sales in a non-January month since 2010

The housing market was cold when it's normally hot last month, while Auckland became the city of no-sales, with its lowest number of sales for a non-January month since 2010.

Uncertainty around the Government's plans for a Capital Gains Tax is given as one of the contributing factors.

The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand says across the whole country the number of residential properties sold in February fell by 9.5% from the same time last year to 5,954 (down from 6,576).

The last time sales volumes fell this much on an annual basis was 16 months ago.

In Auckland, the number of properties sold in February fell by 17.9% year-on-year (from 1,654 to 1,358) – the lowest for a non-January month since October 2010.

The median number of days to sell in Auckland was 57, up eight on the same time a year ago and the highest number of days to sell seen in Auckland since February 2009. 

For New Zealand excluding Auckland, the number of properties sold fell by 6.6% when compared to the same time last year (from 4,922 to 4,596). The average days to sell around the country was 47, up from 44 a year ago.

REINZ chief executive Bindi Norwell said that at a time when sales volumes are normally strong, 13 out of 16 regions actually saw an annual fall in the number of properties sold.

"Traditionally children go back to school and people return from their holidays and housing activity picks up, however, February 2019 has been an exception to this rule," she said.

“The lower level of sales volumes compared to the same time last year can be attributed to a number of things – the raft of legislative changes impacting the housing market at the moment, the increasing difficulty in accessing finance (despite a record low OCR and very low mortgage rates from the banks) and vendors’ pricing expectations."

Despite the volume falls, Norwell said median house prices had kept rising, with five regions seeing record median house prices

Median house prices across New Zealand increased by 5.7% in February to $560,000, up from $530,000 in February 2018. Median prices for New Zealand excluding Auckland increased to a record $490,000 up 8.9% from $450,000 in February last year.

Median house prices in Auckland returned to the $850,000 mark – down 0.6% on last year’s figure of $855,000, but up 5.6% on January’s median price of $805,000.

“What we’re hearing from salespeople around the country is that vendors and investors are taking a ‘wait and see’ approach to the housing market – much like you would normally see around election time," Norwell said.

"This is particularly true in relation to the recently announced Capital Gains Tax proposals from the Tax Working Group. Families want to know what aspects of the proposals the Government will look at accept ahead of next year’s election and what impact that will have on them and their family."

Regions with the lowest percentage change in annual sales volumes during February were:

  • Northland: -27.2% (from 232 to 169 – 63 fewer houses)
  • Nelson: -20.0% (from 120 to 96 – 24 fewer houses)
  • Otago: -14.9% (from 422 to 359 – 63 fewer houses) – the lowest for 11 months.

Regions that saw an annual increase in sales volumes during February were:

  • Marlborough: +5.5% (from 91 to 96 – an additional 5 houses)
  • Southland: +2.9% (from 174 to 149 – an additional 5 houses)
  • Hawke’s Bay: +0.4% (from 231 to 232 – an additional house).

There were five regions that saw record median prices achieved in February:

  • Gisborne: +25.8% to $390,000 (up from $310,000 at the same time last year)
  • Manawatu/Wanganui: +23.4 to $352,000 (up from $285,250 at the same time last year)
  • Southland: +20.8% to $290,000 (up from $240,000 at the same time last year)
  • Wellington: +16.2% to $640,000 (up from $551,000 at the same time last year)
  • Hawke’s Bay: +6.4% to $472,500 (up from $444,000 at the same time last year).

Norwell said in February 15 out of 16 regions experienced an annual increase in the median price, with five regions seeing record median house prices highlighting the strength of the housing market around much of the country.

"With house prices continuing to rise at such a pace, this puts even more of a dampener on any notions of New Zealand following in Australia’s footsteps in the short to medium term. Even Auckland saw an increase from January, showing it has returned to the same, stable or flat market we’ve been seeing since April 2017."

Norwell said Auckland’s median price fall was the result of a slight fall in the number of million dollar plus properties sold which fell from 36.9% in February 2018 to 36.1% this February.

"Despite the annual fall in median price, there were some areas of the Super City that saw some growth including Auckland City where prices increased 3.9% to $1,000,000 – the highest price for Auckland City for 20 months. Additionally, Papakura District saw an annual increase of 3.8% to $649,000 and Franklin District saw an annual increase of 2.3% to $670,000. However, Rodney District and North Shore City saw annual median house price falls of 0.8% and 0.2% respectively."

REINZ House Price Index (HPI) increases 3.2% annually

The REINZ House Price Index for New Zealand, which measures the changing value of property in the market, increased 3.2% year-on-year to a new record high of 2,778.

The HPI for New Zealand excluding Auckland increased 8.1% from February 2018 to a new record high of 2,728. The Auckland HPI decreased -2.0% year-on-year to 2,838.

The REINZ HPI saw 8 out of 12 regions experience a record high level over the past 12 months, highlighting the overall continued strength of the property market. The exceptions were Northland, Auckland, Otago and Southland.

In February the Manawatu/Wanganui region again had the highest annual growth rate, a 19.4% increase to a new record high of 2,984, followed by Gisborne/Hawke’s Bay in second place with an annual growth rate of 13.8% to a new record high of 2,762 and in third place was Southland with a 12.6% annual increase to 2,797 – down -1.8% from its peak in January 2019.

Days to Sell continues to hover close to 50

In February the median number of days to sell a property increased by 3 days from 44 to 47 when compared to February last year.

For New Zealand excluding Auckland, the median days to sell increased by 1 day to 43.

However, Auckland saw the median number of days to sell a property increase by 8 days from 49 to 57 – the highest number of days to sell since February 2009.

Manawatu/Wanganui had the lowest days to sell of all regions at 30 days, down 10 days from 40 at the same time last year. The West Coast always has the highest days to sell of any region (at 91 days in February 2019), but the median number of days to sell in Northland has reached a high of 61 days – the highest in since August 2015.

“With vendors holding out to achieve their price expectations, it’s little surprise that the median number of days to sell has slowly been increasing over the last few months. What was interesting though is that this is the first non-January month since February 2017 that no region had median number of days to sell in the 20s,” Norwell said.

February sees auctions returning to normal

Auctions were used in 11.1% of all sales across the country in February, with 663 properties selling under the hammer – this is down slightly from the same time last year, when 11.8% of properties (776) were sold via auction.

Gisborne again had the highest percentage of sales by auction across the country with 56.4% (or 31 properties) in the region sold under the hammer – up from 46.0% (29 properties) in February 2018.

Auckland saw the second largest percentage of sales by auction on 21.5% (292 properties) down from 22.0% in February 2018 (364 properties). Bay of Plenty remained in its usual third place in February with 13.2% (59 properties) sold under the hammer, down from 16.7% (77 properties) in February 2018.

Inventory

The number of properties available for sale nationally decreased by 0.3% from 26,943 to 26,850 – a decrease of 93 properties compared to 12 months ago.

February saw 7 regions with an annual increase in inventory levels. Regions with the largest increases were:

  • Taranaki: +8.3% from 641 to 694 – an additional 53 properties
  • Auckland: +6.7% from 9,588 to 10,234 – an additional 646 properties
  • Hawke’s Bay: +6.7% from 493 to 526 – and additional 33 properties
  • Marlborough: +5.7% from 349 to 369 – an additional 20 properties.

Regions with the biggest falls in inventory were:

  • Gisborne: -32.2% from 143 to 97 – 46 fewer properties
  • West Coast: -26.1% from 595 to 440 – 155 fewer properties
  • Manawatu/Wanganui: -21.9% from 1,093 to 854 – 239 fewer properties
  • Southland: -20.2% from 623 to 497 – 126 fewer properties
  • Otago: -20.0% from 689 to 551 – 138 fewer properties

Wellington once again saw the lowest levels of inventory with only eight weeks of inventory available to prospective purchasers. This was closely followed by Otago and Hawke’s Bay on only nine weeks’ inventory, followed by Gisborne on 10 weeks’ inventory available.

“This is the fourth consecutive month that we have seen an annual decrease in inventory levels. This will continue to be a concern for the industry, and we expect that the ongoing pressure on inventory will result in price increases in these regions, potentially pushing people to more affordable areas in other regions,” Norwell said.

Price Bands

The number of homes sold for less than $500,000 across New Zealand fell from 45.8% of the market (3,012 properties) in February 2018 to 41.5% of the market (2,473 properties) in February 2019.

The number of properties sold in the $500,000 to $750,000 bracket increased from 27.7% in February 2018 (1,821 properties) to 30.7% in February 2019 (1,825 properties).

At the top end of the market, properties sold for $1 million or more decreased from 13.1% in February 2018 (859 houses) to 12.5% in February 2019 (746 houses).

New listings

During February, new listings fell 6.5% when compared to the same time last year – from 11,269 to 10,535. The only regions to experience an uplift in new listings were Central Otago/Lakes (+11.8%). West Coast (+7.6%) and Wellington (+6.9%).

Vanessa Taylor, realestate.co.nz spokesperson says: “February 2019 was very quiet in terms of new listings. Since we began keeping records back in 2007, February has always seen in excess of 12,000 new listings coming to the market, so this has certainly been a stand out month.”

Median price - REINZ

Select chart tabs »

The 'NZ total' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
NZ total
Source: REINZ
The 'Northland' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Northland
Source: REINZ
The 'Auckland' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Auckland
Source: REINZ
The 'Waikato' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Waikato
Source: REINZ
The 'Bay of Plenty' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Bay of Plenty
Source: REINZ
The 'Gisborne' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Gisborne
Source: REINZ
The 'Hawke's Bay' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Hawke's Bay
Source: REINZ
The 'Manawatu' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Manawatu
Source: REINZ
The 'Taranaki' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Taranaki
Source: REINZ
The 'Wellington' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Wellington
Source: REINZ
The 'Tasman' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Tasman
Source: REINZ
The 'Nelson' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Nelson
Source: REINZ
The 'Marlborough' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Marlborough
Source: REINZ
The 'West Coast' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
West Coast
Source: REINZ
The 'Canterbury' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Canterbury
Source: REINZ
The 'Otago' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Otago
Source: REINZ
The 'Southland' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Southland
Source: REINZ

Median house price growth

Select chart tabs »

The 'NZ total %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
NZ total %
Source: REINZ
The 'Northland %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Northland %
Source: REINZ
The 'Auckland %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Auckland %
Source: REINZ
The 'Waikato %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Waikato %
Source: REINZ
The 'Bay of Plenty %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Bay of Plenty %
Source: REINZ
The 'Gisborne %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Gisborne %
Source: REINZ
The 'Hawke's Bay %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Hawke's Bay %
Source: REINZ
The 'Manawatu %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Manawatu %
Source: REINZ
The 'Taranaki %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Taranaki %
Source: REINZ
The 'Wellington %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Wellington %
Source: REINZ
The 'Tasman %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Tasman %
Source: REINZ
The 'Nelson %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Nelson %
Source: REINZ
The 'Marlborough %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Marlborough %
Source: REINZ
The 'West Coast %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
West Coast %
Source: REINZ
The 'Canterbury %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Canterbury %
Source: REINZ
The 'Otago %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Otago %
Source: REINZ
The 'Southland %' chart will be drawn here.
Loading...
Southland %
Source: REINZ

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

164 Comments

Auckland down 0.6%! Bloodbath.

28
up

It's a bit silly to quote medians when they report HPI estimates.
Also, qualify it as based on ~18% less transactions.

That is a bloodbath for Real Estate Agents.

That is a bloodbath for Real Estate Agents ...........and more to come

The REINZ Auckland HPI decreased 2.0% year-on-year.

I was hoping they’d be more of a reduction in prices by now
The trend is prices moving down but Auckland is its own little property microcosm
It’s only 40kms Drive from east coast Mairangi bay to west coast Muriwai beach so land is limited for a major city to grow. Sydney & Melbourne property markets are having a correction yet the medium to long term trend remains higher not lower prices
Of course we are on the cusp of a Ai robotic revolution with new efficiency in construction so at least the cost to build will drop significantly Let’s just say you won’t believe what’s being developed

"The REINZ Auckland HPI decreased 2.0% year-on-year"

Still not exactly a bloodbath

Yes indeed Yvil, Realestate.co.nz listing well over 14,200. Not exactly a flood. Just a cracked dam. Nothing for the interest only borrowers of this world to worry about.....

Well spotted Mr Strauss. So 14000 Trademe listings, 1358 Auckland sales in Feb (REINZ Numbers). More than 10 months of stock already available, (at current sales rate). What was the average selling time?

The Auckland house price fall is so tiny, I had to use my magnifying glass to see it.........

TTP

12
up

Don't expect a fall of 10% in one month. That's not how this stuff works. The 'problem' has started 2 years ago with flattening house prices, whiping out the wealth effect (house is no longer ATM)

Sydney says hello

11
up

What about the 17.9% drop? Did you need a magnifying glass for that also?

People not in a rush to sell. No mass exodus yet. Nothing to see here

Please check houses that are comming to market / new listing and will find that most have been purchased by so call Investors in last 2 or 3 years, who are trying to get out ASAP.

but they are not able to fetch needed price and still in denial stage

Publicly, the DGM talk of dramatic price drops - but privately they are amazed at the resilience of Auckland house prices.......

TTP

Nahh top end of the market in central Auckland has already started to crumble, nothing to hold the paper millionaires up any more apart from thin air. Easy to see when you look at the auction results.

Like many grumpy old nags, TTPs owners have fitted him with a set of blinkers so he can't see anything to startle him out of placid complacency.

saw a nice quote

Don't argue with someone who chooses to remain foolish...

The most awkward thing about it all is that you still show up with your pinky glasses on never ever changing the tone of your view on things. The trend has changed but you're not changing with it. Almost as criminal as what the banks have done, luring all the FHB in at the top.

I bet thats not the only thing you need you magnifying glass for....

16
up

Auckland Median price is now same level as Feb 2016

18
up

So after transaction costs....we're probably somewhere around late 2015 prices nett? Not bad!

Then add in the holding costs for many negatively geared investors, we might around mid-2015? Not bad!

That's only 4 years of flat prices.

Given property doubles every 7-10 years, we are only 3-6 years from an Auckland median of $1.7m guaranteed.

I learnt that at a seminar. There was a chart and everything.

#3.4millionby2030

But for all you doomsters thinking the speculators will lose money, don't be mistaken. What do you do with a negatively geared property with a falling value? You hold it forever that's what!! Genius.

Yes, yes.
This is all so very true.

And you need to nod vigorously and knowingly whilst clasping your hands when you say it.
That gives you much more credibility.

The Oracle reiterated the 7-10 year rule again today. So it must be believed, without question.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OCPhK0B8oY

The best quotes from this video:
"It goes up, it always goes up... nothing to suggest this time will be any different"

and this gem to finish up, that I'm sure every good economist and financial adviser would not hesitate to agree with:
"I would tend to be led by the history of the market rather than what might be going on in other parts of the world... because we've always been a bit different to those other markets".

Wow. What a genius.
1. It always goes up;
2. Historical performance predicts the future; and,
3. We're different to the rest of the world.
How can you disagree with any of that sage intellectualism?

Side note: Can someone please remember to take this guy out with the trash when this global credit expansion hits the fan.

@cmat thats BS, he literally says: "the major trend is that it always goes up... it might go up and down a little bit... but the trend line is always up."

You are your ilk are perpetrators of fake news, editing out fragments of sentences.

Rubbish, let's give his full quote verbatim then.

"The major trend is that it goes up, always goes up, it might go a little bit up and down on the fringes, but the trendline is always up. And there is nothing to suggest this will be any different"
[interestingly the only time I've ever heard him use the word "down"]

Sorry - how was I originally taking his message out of context? It wasn't.
The guy continually perpetuates this notion that you can just mindlessly extrapolate historical data into perpetuity with total disregard to global macro-economic factors.

It's misleading, and worse it influences vulnerable, unsophisticated people into taking highly leveraged positions.
The guy is totally unqualified to make such sweeping statements that are myopic and ignorant in the extreme.
He's a charlatan.

You're busted mate, you should own it and move on. You said "It goes up, it always goes up... nothing to suggest this time will be any different" which would be a false statement. He actually said: "The major trend is that it goes up" which is actually true.
His past actions do not change the fact that you purposely misquoted him. You and he are both in the same fake news club. Grats.

Nope. I'm not going to admit I'm busted.

His fundamental theorem is that house prices double every 7-10 years, like clock-work, and you don't need to look at any outside influences... it will just happen. And this time is no different so it will continue to do so. 12%-17% HPI CAGR ad infinitum.

The "major trend" is only symptomatic of the major trend in monetary policy for the last 30 years.
Ever declining interest rates.
Ever increasing credit availability.

For his theorem to stack up we will need to hit the zero-bound and then continue. SNAFU.

It's a mind-numblingly stupid message to peddle

Declining Interest Rates
Increasing Credit Availability
Changes in household employment composition (1 income to 2 incomes)
Extension of Mortgage Terms to 30 years.

Houses could double every 7 - 10 years like clockwork, but we're running out of extraordinary drivers that'll see this doubling outstrip general inflation/wages.

Yes, we are - the arsenal is low and, if anything, there is a risk it will unwind.

Looks like the RBA have finally had a No-Sh!t-Sherlock moment...
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/36091

I wonder if the RBNZ will equally admit the part they have played.
Not that Ashley will notice though... coz 7-10 years is the rule.

"I wonder if the RBNZ will equally admit the part they have played"

The RBNZ individuals in charge attempted to implement a macro-prudential policy measure which would might have prevented the magnitude of property prices getting so large, but its hands were tied by the individuals in government at the time. Not sure when the RBNZ started thinking about this tool, as by the time they were talking about this publicly in 2017, property prices in Auckland had reached current price levels.

"Asked if DTIs were now off the table, English said he saw no need for further macroprudential tools to be added to the Reserve Bank's toolkit."

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/08/15/42641/english-tells-rbnz-he-wants-...

@cmat A CAGR of 12% is 2.2x at 7 years and at 17% is 3x at 7 years. The correct CAGR range is 7%-10%, not 12%-17%.
You are also avoiding the point, which is you purposely misquoted him. You had an agenda and twisted his quote to make your argument more click worthy. You are as fake as he is.

Zombi ponzi. Good post.

Now consider there are around 500,000 (nice round numbers for this demonstration) properties in AK. Assume 20,000 - 25,000 or so sales a year generally over the last few years. It has dropped off in the last 2 years (We’ll work on the lower number of 20,000)

Prices appear to be back to 2016 levels so assume 2017/18 purchases are now worth less than acquisition (probably a large part of 2016 too) but we’ll just work on just the 2 years at 20,000.

40,000 / 500,000 = 8% or so (probably best case) now worth less than acquisition price. The key to all this is do the costs of owning make sense relative to the return?

It would appear that the median in feb 2016 was 770 and it is 850 now, thats up 10%?

I see Aug 2016 as last time Auckland Median was $850k. After that date it peaked at $900k in April 2017 and lowest was $805k in January.

Indeed, comparing feb 2016 to feb 2019, a buyer is 10% up. That is how you compare prices across time. In august youl likely be able to say we are below 2016 prices but thats several months out.

Adjusted for inflation it’s like 3 - 4% up.

Adjusting for loss aversion, it's probably not up at all.

@k_s excellent gymnastics buddy, 10% gain becomes 0% gain, love it.

@Nzdan Its 5% but you cant use inflation that way in a geared investment comparison. because the debt has also dropped in relative terms.

Ahh, yes you can, IMHO.
It is the i part in any IRR equation.

For simplicity consider a cash neutral purchase with 10% down. Inflation of 5% and growth of 5% will result in a IRR of 50% and 42.5% after adjusting for inflation. I hope this helps you understand why you cant reduce the growth rate of a leveraged investment by the rate of inflation and come out with any meaningful information.

My bad. I was working on 2% p.a. because I couldn’t be bothered pulling up the exact inflation rate to the nearest 10.

As for being a geared investment, if it’s an interest only mortgage held on the property then inflation effectively erodes the equity portion?. Wouldn’t you then also calculate the $80k gain as a percentage of the equity? 60% LVR on $770k is 26% gain on your capital before inflation, 0% gain on the bank’s capital (they keep the interest from rent).

That maths is all correct yes. Then you pull the inflation out after and youl get less than 26% in real terms. Still it means you can actually have no real growth and yet profit handsomely from inflation alone.
Thus you cant simply take a growth rate, minus the inflation rate and then expect to have some idea of the performance of a leveraged investment.
Here is the correct order of operations:
$100,000 investment to secure a $1,000,000 asset
growth 5%, inflation 5%
asset value after 1 year is $1,050,000
equity after 1 year is $150,000 (IRR 50%)
$150,000 - 5% = $142,500 or a 42.5% IRR after inflation

And here is the incorrect operation:

$100,000 investment to secure a $1,000,000 asset
growth 5%, inflation 5%
5%-5% = 0% net real growth
inflation adjusted asset value after 1 year is $1,000,000
$1,000,000/$1,000,000 = 0%
IRR = 0

Thank you!

18
up

But I've been working so hard for my capital gains, it's not fair!

13
up

- The Auckland HPI decreased -2.0% year-on-year to 2,838
- Auckland saw the median number of days to sell a property increase by 8 days from 49 to 57 – the highest number of days to sell since February 2009.
Two biggest take aways from the report for me. Good to see things moving in the right direction affordability wise.

Thats the Auckland region HPI

Auckland city = -2.6%
North shore City -4.2%
WaitakereCity= -2.2%

Rodney +2% and Papakura +1.4% being the areas that are up over the last year.

Prices up = affordability. Prices down = over inflated foreign buyer/money launder prices < need to focus on reality. They'll drop they have no other choice if they want to sell.

SAD thing is however that this is all due to a credit squeeze.., which means people can borrow less so the only people that benefit from falling prices are the cash investors that have sold 2 years ago to poor FHB, in order to buy those same properties back when the FHB are under water.

Not quite true, it will also help those that are saving hard for a deposit, as prices fall their deposit grows from 5% to 8% with the falling house prices, and then they keep adding to the deposit ans soon they have doubled their deposit (in % terms) to 10% or more. The credit tightening will eventually be relaxed, or the Govt will come up with some other scheme to help FHBs get into the market. (Housing corp mortgages or something?)

Affordability rises for first home buyers. However, it doesn't mean that they are able to buy - if banks remain tight on lending or get even tighter on lending.

It may not be the case for upgraders as this story illustrates

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/housing-affordability-worsens-des...

17
up

Headline : House sales down 9.5% in February

Should have been and more Important : Auckland sales down 17.9% in February
BUT
Many will argue that what happens in Auckland does not affect rest of NZ, simlar to what happens in Australia and rest of world does not affect NZ :)

Rememebr that for any meaningfull fall - Sell has to decline first - which is happening.

Wait and Watch.

10
up

And Caramel Salted popcorn is on sale at Countdown, 30% off.. Enjoy the show!

I'd rather knock the top off a nice cold, hoppy IPA or two.

10
up

Wow those Auckland selling times really spiked up. Listings are also up 20%+ on TradeMe and RE sites just this year to date. Where did the "3%" go?

The man will tell us chc is wonderful but he HPI is only 1%! No jobs in chch you see! Ah bugger my keyboard! is broken again!

With the largest insurer bailing out of Wellington due to the perceived quake risk, you have to be mad to be buying rentals there. That said cheap moneys and desire to leverage do funny things to people.

'Mad' as in not sound of mind?
Most FHBs I know in Wellington aren't looking because they're not sound of mind, it's because they're faced with either paying an average of $550 p/w for a rental, when a $400k home loan would cost roughly the same in repayments at today's interest rates.
Perhaps 'mad' in the sense that they are between a rock and a hard place and either way they potentially stand to lose money?

That's the thing. You can only wait it out for so long. Sooner or later, clocks for things like families or FHB grants start ticking and it becomes a 'now or never' scenario.

I relocated to and bought in Masterton 18 months ago for that reason. Didn’t want to pay city prices and didn’t want to send the wife back to work once her maternity leave was up. She eventually went back to work due to boredom after 12 months.

Canterbury median price growing but why isn’t Christchurch a separate entity?
Why does Ashburton and other places get amalgamated in with ChCh when Christchurch is the hub of the South Island?
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

They do separate them ... Chch City HPI almost back to where it was in mid/late 2016. Still mostly going sideways tho. Its pretty much the same as Ashburton.. so you have nothing to whinge about really.

Because the Real Estate Agents in Christchurch lobbied hard to mask the falling ChCh median prices with the other surrounding areas that are seeing price gains.

Perhaps they should go down to another level "Upper CHCH" and "Lower CHCH' , a bit like Auckland and South Auckland

Rubbish, ChCh prices are not falling at all!
First Home Vuyers are buying up knowing that prices will never be lower,

10
up

Give it up THE SPAM 2... man you crack me up!

He told us in another thread that he earns a million dollars a year and his wife is a model.

And doesn't venture down to CHCH CBD (Moorehouse Ave).. I am beginning to think TM2 is a virtual character.

You are losing the plot Chairman!
The boyracers tend to hang around the ChCh central city rather than the burbs!

Hang on, you said yesterday " kids are pretty well behaved down here!"
So there is an issue with boy racers in CHCH! And when the cops cracked down in ChCh Central, they all head up the the burbs!
Check reddit, you might find out a thing or two about the boy races in CHCH. You might be able to hang out with them.. they are pretty good tenants

10 years ago I was one of those boy racers. It’s usually 3 laps of the 4 aves then down Colombo Street to the hills. If the cops spot you doing a full lap then you’re breaching the “anti cruise bylaw”. Not sure what it’s like now though.

Dp

Is it any wonder with so much uncertainty from our Government on just about everything in the Economy ! We are in the doldrums unnecessarily without concise leadership

16
up

Except the slowdown started happening in 2016, roughly around the time the CCP put a brake on money leaving China.... National's LVR rules also worked a bit, and the CGT that they put in place seemed to arrest the over-leveraged debt jockeys/speculators

Actually the slowdown occurred exactly as affordability become stretched to its historical maximum. It was predictable.

Correct

12
up

Don't bring those pesky facts to the narrative party.

Who needs facts? The COL don't want to measure anything so they don't need facts. All that's required is the COL being left holding the baby when the recession starts. Conflation is my friend.

11
up

Ah, you reckon they've caught National's "too hard to measure" bug eh. Just so you're aware though, this is a housing article we're on.

I didn’t introduce the political aspect, it was started above, but as you know I’m happy to diss the COL at any opportunity. How you lot can be positive with the COLs performance is beyond me, but there you are.

The Reserve Bank's LVR rules. Not National's.

23
up

All data indicates that housing market is just waiting at Cliff to be pushed.....

Question is not IF but WHEN...…….

Actually the question is one of magnitude.

You are correct it is not When (as it has already started) but When the speed of the fall pick up

Wonder if it's rocks or spikes at the bottom..

I thought it was going to be 100,000 Feather pillows.. Tony Alexander promised me.

The question is how high is the cliff ? The above graph is still tending up nationally, how long can you realistically afford to wait ?

11
up

Indeed. OBB, CCP tightening cash exporting, China domestic debt issues, new money laundering requirements, Govt all over the place on CG tax, RBNZ wanting increased capitalisation for Banks, Sydney/Melbourne property crashing, loss ring fencing, incoming property standards, extended tenancy protection, Brexit getting uglier, high end Awkland property buyer-less, RE sales tanking, RE listings exploding and RE Agents bailing.

Is it just me or does today present a different picture to the stacking debt tax loss ponzi of recent past?

17
up

Suggesting the CGT had an impact on sales is just fantasy, especially in Akld. There is no CGT to be paid when the value of you house is falling!

So much for peak selling season!

Looks like winter has come early!

A lot of vendors will be seeing the HPI falling as wondering how they can escape before it comes crashing down.... only one answer there ...... lower the price now.

The next 6 months are going to be telling, glad to be sitting on the sidelines for now....

Also do we not already have CGT in the form of Brightline Test so what has changed.. Tax was and is already in place SO defenitely CGT cannot be the reason though may add to the falling sentiment.

Also, I believe an earlier article here suggested compliance with the law on the Brightline Test was quite low.

...if that be true, more fool them. There's no time limit for IRD retrospective assessments :)

you ass-u-me that everyone has to sell? they don't. CG are in excess of 60%+ for many kiwis. Sure there will be a slow burn for 10+ years, with prices likely to stagnate, and volumes depressed. However I don't see prices falling off a cliff. Property discussion may disappear off the pages of interest.co.nz!!! Although if a global shock hits, all bets are off.

Falling property prices means people can no longer use them as ATM's which decreases retail sales and property owners hiring builders to 'increase the value of their property'. This almost automatically - since Australia and NZ's economies have become so reliant on the building industry as most other industries heavily rely on it - impacts employment (negatively). Another 'scary' truth is that in the past - just prior to a recession (which Australia is in technically) employment is churning at record highs in order to crash down and wipe out the whole wealth effect.

Family just sold a deceased estate for more than 20% below CV. It sat on the market for months

Nothing new have seen many between 10% to 25% below CV. Slowly and steadily wil be the norm.

10
up

Meh, Auckland would have to drop by half to be attractive to anyone sane. But if there's a bloodbath in the regions in the next 18 months, I will buy there instead of Australia.

50% doubtfull (Some houses may and not ruled out)but defenitely between 30% to 40%.Start planing.

Honestly.... looking at the prices in the regions I'm interested in, 30-40% might not cut it for me.

Good thing I have plan A.

13
up

As per the NZHerald: Summer took its toll on the house sale market... Just blame summer!

And... "Traditionally children go back to school and people return from their holidays and housing activity picks up, however, February 2019 has been an exception to this rule," she said." This year children did not go back to school and people did not return from their holidays...

Blame JK for leaving early..

11
up

Blame anyone and everything but Foreign money and money laundering.

12
up

Indeed foreign money, money laundering plus a Chinese buying frenzy and a world awash with money to lend.

All these factors that sent the market skyward have gone and now we have tighter lending and a sea of new houses and apartments being developed in Auckland.

Farcical and hilarious

It's astounding how bullish REINZ is all the time. If you report sunshine and lollipops at every turn. When most people can see for themselves through a bit of research in their neighbourhood, that it's not. When the market is healthy, no one is going to believe you. The REINZ who cried wolf scenario.

.

.

I think potential cgt is a small factor. The market was already in its way down.

House volume sales are important to the RBNZ. Stock and flow are important. Nationwide annualised house sales now below 4 percent of stock. Auckland around 3.1 percent. Given that Auckland has approached 10 percent in the recent past, below 4 percent nationwide suggests this behemoth has fully turned . The big 4 will be on the private phone.to Mr Orr in the coming days..

In the real world I reckon Auckland house prices have fallen 5-10% from their high.

The investment property market has fallen more as a lot of people and trying to exit due to the tax changes that kick in next year.

Watch all the young people flow into WA again... the place is about to boom. All Kiwis over here, love it. Double the incomes, half the costs and the ability to buy affordable housing... ideals I couldn't even dream of in NZ. Im about to buy a 4x2 near new house (double the size of the rental I have for my family and I) 10 min walk to golden sand beach.... 2 min walk to train station into town. Guess how much... $320k. Get your arses over here people!!!

Not double incomes for software developers unfortunately... they don't need us in the mines!

Still cheaper houses and more opportunities though.

Thats true Saving4Uhouse... but the IT service provision in the mining sector always call for demand... and if you were to pursue that avenue the business opportunities are there also (I progressed an IT and process development service provider- tender contract for a mining company, and can confirm that the IT company were doing VERY well financially in the mining sector....) Would strongly suggest talking to recruitment agencies over here to determine if your skills are in demand. If so, you will do very well over here.

And with the increasing automation there will be more and more need for software/IT.

Most of mining companies have their HO in Brisbane; Rio Tinto, Anglo American, Extrata, Mitsui, Aurizon. There is a fair bit of demand for IT Engineers and developers here

Only software/IT for those with freaky talent..been that way for along time..no money in tech support...

From having lived in Aus for many years and now living in NZ. You don't want to live in Aus if you have school age kids. Aus schools are awful, public schools resemble something out of the 1970s, run down, drab and poorly equipped (note about 1/3 of Aus kids go to private schools, so those who would lobby for higher standards in NZ, in Aus send their kids to the private school down the road). And the private schools have lower standards than NZ schools. Lots of class A drug use in Aus high schools (I work in Hospital Emergency Depts). So raising kids in Aus you are really chancing your arm for poor outcomes.

Yet their main universities are ranked so much higher than NZs...go figure..or gross generalisations...

Having lived in Aus as well I agree. I think one of the few (but important) downsides to Aus versus NZ is the inferior quality of the school education.

Have to say that I disagree with you MJA. Thankfully been back from NZ to Aust for 8 months- best decision of my familys life. Schools over here have been great and my children are far more happier- their preference is Aust. Having been subjected to racism and bullying in NZ, its great that we are treated with respect as Kiwis... not as second class citizens that we experienced in NZ. Drug problem- having also spent time in upper management in the DHB I specifically dealt with the horrendous stats pertaining to lower socio-economic - the poverty, homelessness and issues were significant. Drugs and alcohol as well as suicides were off the charts. I see many Kiwis over here- healthier, financially better off and genuinely less stressed out. Honestly, having experienced both countries... with respect, NZ unfortunately is not even comparative to what Aust offers (although I do miss fishing and hunting!)

"Uncertainty around the Government's plans for a Capital Gains Tax is given as one of the contributing factors."
Investor (long term rental) activity has been subdued for past few years (e.g. RBNZ mortgage data).
There is little profit (most likely negative geared) on 3 to 4% gross yield at current levels (net 1 to 2% yield).
As market is likely to remain subdued in medium term (five years?) it would seem unlikely that the potential CGT is currently a significant issue but is likely to reinforce that the long term future for investment is not looking positive.
Renters expect rent increases.

Funny reading so many on Interest.co talking about a house price crash that they have been predicting for the last 6 or more years, and in that time prices have escalated!
Most people in NZ don’t care about Aucklands prices as they have been too high for a long time.
Reality is that if you do your homework and need a home and interest repayments are less than renting then you should go for it!
For professional Investors now is a great time for investing!

Fact: Auckland has 1/3 of the population and $100 billions in GDP. I think most people care about Auckland.

https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/auckland-economy-hits-100-billion

Awesome comment THE SPAM 2! So much so, that you have gained a phenomenal 2 number of thumbs up...

Mate, Im actually starting to feel sorry for you. The desperation is evident.

Me: Look over there, the Titanic is sinking.
THE SPAM 2: No its NOT! They are only giving it a comprehensive wash, thats all!

Bro....

The REINZ data does not reflect the Auckland environment and what all of the agencies are reporting with average selling prices. Very strange...

beware the median!!!!

HPI is the real measure although it does have s lag.

The tide has definately turned and its all down from here for the next couple of years, unless there is another GFC then who knows how low it can go in Akld...............

Sales fall by 9.5% is just a reflection of sellers not accepting what they see are rubbish offers and sellers not wanting to pay too much.
Nothing to see here.

10
up

Eventually they have to sell.. the ex-wife won't wait forever for the divorce settlement, the kids want their share of the inheritance, 4 kids in a 2 bedroom unit doesn't work etc. Then they have to take what the market is willing to pay.

Yes however you may well be surprised how long people hold on in decent numbers...

Unemployed real estate agents? Music to my ears :)

And unemployable.

Capital Gains Tax is now becoming a total yawn.
Firstly it isn’t coming in as the TWG has recommended and because this COL is doomed!
The Brains Trust are struggling with it big time and they can not understand it, that is why Cullen is still,on the gravy train.
The biggest negatives at the moment is firstly the Banks tightening up on lending to many people that they consider could be a risk if prices drop in Auckland and due to their age!
The other major is the ringfencing being brought in and therefore negatively geared investors will not be spending whether they are in Auckland or Wellington!

So, in a way, the Auckland market hasn't really fallen because HPI was already down about 2% YoY last month. But obviously the big drop in sales means sellers are holding out for the time being although it's unlikely they can do that for long. So HPI is due for a proper fall, i.e. down more than 2% YoY, in the next few months.

I actually predicted that Auckland HPI would be down 3.5% YoY this month, so didn't get the timing right. Fairly confident we'll see that within 3 months though.

The CGT and the lack of its facts is the main driver of the rapidly deflating market.
House prices were already at the tipping point - as I have warned many times before -and the uncertainty engendered by the CGT will be the last straw.
This is the time of year when most house sales should be closing, but at this rate, winter will be a disaster especially for the construction industry which is building straight into a vacuum.
It reminds me of 1972 when the then Labour Government under Norm Kirk, and later Bill Rowling introduced the Property Speculation Tax to stop rising house prices. No details were given for months and as a result the residential market fell off the cliff, helped by the Oil Crisis of 1973.
Same story today.
A report from the TWG, followed by delay on details, has been timed perfectly to destroy market confidence,
Labour was deservedly voted out in 1975 and the Tax was repealed in 1978.
Karma.

people should never think that houses go up forever, compounding growth is a serious business and leverage should be left to experts.

Big Daddy, Personally don’t think it is the Capital Gains Tax threat at all!
If it did come in Then it won’t be I but then again I do not beleive they will be power anyway.
The ringfencing is more of a worry for investors in Auckland plus the poor rental yields up that way

Credit heart attack underway. NSC sales down 35% last month and 36% this month compared to a year ago.
Listings well down on where ought to be. DTS worst since Feb 2009 in Auckland. Buyers market eh? Why are they not buying then? And its not because of a CGT in 2 years time (if government does it) Stanmore Bay best selling suburb in Hibiscus Coast this month and just by coincidence it has a lower median than all rest and its going down ($696k) Australian owner occupiers lent 15% less by banks last month than a year ago. That shows you what is coming. Also, areas where sales dropping and listings not rising just happen to be where there are most Chinese agents. Whose clients are more likely to be Chinese and what is happening to China economy?

Agree.... credit heart attack coming to a town near you.

Yes I agree all the other threats and measures such as extended bright line test, ring fencing, tougher tenancy regulations, tighter bank lending and a growing supply of unwanted houses and apartments all contribute to the fall in sales and prices. The CGT is going to be the straw that broke the camels back.
Greed and fear drive the market.
Greed takes a good while to build up.
Fear is the exact opposite. The reaction to fear is rapid and borders on panic.
Watch this space.

Takes lots of booster rockets were required to make current altitude, once they shut off gravity kicks in quickly. How quick does it take for terminal velocity to occur?

Well I am laughing all the way to the bank.
No way do I want competition of properties to let. Just let another one in Nelson. Had 1045 viewings on Trade Me and lots of applications. Winz so keen to help they put the money into my bank account two hours after giving the prospective tenant a letter for the money. Stupid government has scared the beginner investors away that is one of the multiple reasons they are struggling to sell their school boy dreamed up kiwi build

And this is exactly why kiwbuild needs to go and state house building be ramped up.

Yup an absolute case in point

Why would you let to a benny unless there is no one else half decent

Saving hard, waiting patiently ~ rinse and repeat.

Australia has CGT and stamp duty for years. They live with it, some made a bundle out of housing, very few went broke. I don't know what the big deal is unless you are making good profit and don't want to play fair by paying tax.

If there is no dramatic correction. Which seems the more likely scenario. What it means is that the huge amount of money now tied up in housing will not provide any return for years and years. That will continue to be a huge drag on the economy.

and that is the best case scenario!

Days to sell for Auckland has reached 57, which is levels last seen in February 2001. FYI, highest since Jan 1992 is 66 days.

https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/days-sell

These numbers can be manipulated downwards by vendors taking their property off the market and then re-listing at a later date.

The alarm bells are ringing.......

Buy a bolt-hole on the West Coast SI. Great place, cheap-as-chips, nice locals, and when the shit hits the fan, the rain washes it all away! Ahh the serenity...

It's great if you never want to fly overseas or have a career.

Why? Are you suggesting that westcoasters are unsuccessful and untravelled? Please explain

I mean there's no regularly scheduled flights from the West Coast to Auckland AFAIK. So to get out of NZ you have to drive or fly to Christchurch first. Not the end of the world, but it does make any overseas trip a lot less pleasant.

Anybodys career options are going to be severely limited there, you can't deny that.

My friend is a REA, had to sell her house recently because her income slowed down dramatically. Pretty unfortunate but she says that there are a few thats in her position as well.

I don't think the stats tell the story of how gloomy it's looking. I know a couple of usually bullish RE agents who are decidedly bearish right now.

commission earners are always at extremes, its either hitting the roof or the sky is falling, no middle ground!

The smart ones stash away when the going is good and work hard for every penny when its a struggle. few and far between....

TradeMe listings for Auckland seem to be up a couple of hundred in the last couple of days. Almost at 14,000.

Wonder if they'll top 14,000 by the end of the day.

20 to go.

10

And Thar she blows... 14010.

FYI, there are 2 numbers on trademe - there is a different number for the number of listings after page 10 of the listings

After page 10, the number of listings is higher - that number is currently 15,081 vs 13,998 on the first page.

https://www.trademe.co.nz/browse/categoryattributesearchresults.aspx?cid...

Australian housing market in free fall :)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=122...

Investors, hold tight for a rough ride.

Cheers.