The power struggle between the two Te Pāti Māori (TPM) factions is still far from resolved, but already Labour is eyeing up possible victories in the Māori electorates.
Labour campaign manager and Māori caucus co-chair Willie Jackson said he was excited by the chance to reclaim the seats and push TPM out of Parliament, as in 2017.
He said the Māori Party’s internal turmoil had sparked new interest from potential Labour candidates for 2026.
“The reality is, we've got a real opportunity,” he told reporters. “I think people don't like division, and they like what they're seeing from Labour”.
“We want to get all the seats back. I'm the campaign manager for Labour; we are going very strongly for those seven seats.”
If the expelled MPs stand as independents in Te Tai Tokerau and Te Tai Tonga, they could split the TPM vote and open a path for Labour candidates to win.
But it is not obvious reclaiming those seats would help change the Government.
Parliament’s seats are distributed in proportion to each party’s share of the vote — first to electorate winners, then to list candidates. An extra seat is added when a party wins more electorates than its party vote would normally allow.
There are now three overhang seats because TPM won six electorates with only enough party votes for about three or four, and National added another seat through a by-election.
Overhang seats can change the balance of power. Had Labour won the Māori electorates in 2023, all else equal, the right-leaning Coalition might have held a 10 seat majority instead of seven.
National and Act could even have scraped together a majority without New Zealand First. That would be a very different government.
No cups of tea
All that is to say, Labour winning the Māori electorates wouldn’t help the Opposition unless its party vote also rose.
In the short term, the smarter tactic might be to let TPM take the seven electorates while keeping the party vote with Labour, maximising the overhang and the Opposition’s total seats.
But Labour leader Chris Hipkins told Interest.co.nz the idea was absolutely out of the question for 2026 and beyond.
“We're not going to be doing any electorate seat deals. We've been very clear about that. That's a principal position that the Labour Party has taken that is very long standing,” he said.
“We don't do cup of tea deals in the way the National Party does. We believe that those decisions ultimately rest with the voters.”
It’s easy to see why. Right-wing activists already want to abolish the Māori seats, and if the left tried to game them for electoral advantage, that effort would intensify.
Voters also dislike unfair play and often punish parties seen to bend the rules. A deal could backfire and undo efforts to defend the seats.
As National leader, Judith Collins even committed to running candidates in the Māori electorates, ending a boycott that had stood since 2002.
Two National candidates ran in 2023, with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon upholding her pledge, though finding contenders may be tougher next time.
Polling push
Still, running a candidate may help pick up a few extra party votes. Every bit counts in what’s shaping up to be a tight 2026 race.
The Coalition regained a modest lead in the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia November poll, with a net gain of 1.1 points and a corresponding 1.9 point loss for the left bloc.
The poll was conducted after Labour announced its tax and Future Fund measures, but before Tākuta Ferris and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi were expelled from TPM. Labour appeared to gain votes from its coalition partners compared with October, though some shifted into the “other” category.
Of course, these shifts come from a single poll and fall within the margin of error. But Interest.co.nz’s polling average shows the right bloc has regained a marginal lead after briefly losing it in March and again in late September.
Labour and NZ First have steadily grown support since the election, while National has lost votes and other parties have held steady.
Winston Peters’ recent attack on the Coalition’s economic management likely reflects the mood of voters drifting from National. It may also act as a firewall, keeping frustrated 2023 voters in the Coalition tent rather than leaving entirely.
3 Comments
I think it scares reasonable center based voters off the left entirely, a gift to National.
I do not think Hippy will be leading by next election.
I actually think he will because out of self interest, there is no contender willing to risk their future prospects by leading Labour to a loss in 2026. There is no magical “Ardern” wand bearer in the wings either. The coalition on present form can offer the electorate clear evidence of cohesion and stability, in fact a true form of a MMP government. On the other hand, Labour has hardly rectified the shambolic lot that they were in 2023 and now would require to convince the electorate that would provide, together with the raucous and dysfunctional activities of the Greens and TPM, a better prospect than the incumbents.
"Right-wing activists already want to abolish the Māori seats,... "
That's opinion not "analysis". It could equally be said that only separatist racists want to keep them.
There being no justification for keeping them for approx 150 years (universal male suffrage), ~130 years (universal suffrage) , ~40 years (MMP Royal commission recommendation). Take your pick.
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