First Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll of 2026 shows more people think NZ's heading in the wrong direction than the right direction

The first Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll of 2026 shows Labour ahead of National, and New Zealand First up strongly.

The poll, conducted between January 14 to January 18, and released on Thursday, has NZ First rising to 11.9%, a jump of 3.8 points from the group’s previous survey. In the 2023 general election, NZ First received 6.08% of the party votes, giving it eight seats.

From Thursday's poll numbers - if an election were held today, the current three-party coalition could form a government.  However, the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll also asks those surveyed about the country’s direction, and this wasn't good news for the Government.

Of the 1000 New Zealanders surveyed, 32.6% say the country is heading in the right direction while 49% say it’s heading in the wrong direction.

Although National is at 31.5%, up 1.5 points since the December poll, Labour is up 2.8 points, putting it at 34.4%.

The Greens are at 7.7% having dropped 3.1 points, and ACT sits at 7% having fallen 1.9 points.

Te Pāti Māori saw a 0.1 point decrease from December’s Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, placing it at 3.0%. Other parties are at 4.5%, dropping 3.1 points.

In terms of seats, National would have 39, Labour would have 43 (up by two) while NZ First would have 15, an increase of four.

The Greens would have 10, down four compared to the party's December polling, ACT would have nine (down two) and Te Pāti Māori would have four.

In terms of preferred prime minister, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon dropped 0.2 points to 19.5% while Labour leader Chris Hipkins saw a small 0.2 point increase, bumping him to 18%.

NZ First leader Winston Peters rose 1.2 points, putting him at 9.7%, while ACT leader David Seymour rose 1.1 points to 7.1%.

Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick was at 5.5%, dropping 2.1 points.

A Roy Morgan poll out last week showed the three government coalition parties slightly ahead of the opposition parties.

'I can make a coalition work'

The poll follows Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announcing November 7 as the date of the general election.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Luxon made it clear that he was focused on getting as many party votes for National as they could, but he was open to working with his current coalition partners again.

“We’re clear about who our partners could possibly be post an election,” he said.

“I can make a coalition work if I have to, my preference would be to make sure I’m maximising the National Party vote.”

‘Almost double their support’

Taxpayers’ Union spokesman James Ross says; “New Zealand First will definitely be happy with how they’re entering election year.”

“This is their highest ever result in a Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, at almost double their support during the last election.”

Although Peters has made it clear that he would not work with Hipkins, that hasn’t stopped people suggesting so.

ACT leader David Seymour said Peters was “getting ready to go with Labour again” after he announced that he would be campaigning on repealing the Regulatory Standards Bill (a Bill put forward by ACT) in November.

In an interview with Newsroom at the end of 2025, Peters said Seymour’s suggestion was “just laughable”.

“I made it very clear when I found out after the 2020 election what they’d withheld from me … I looked back and thought to myself, I’m never going to deal with that sort of person again,” he said.

“When you give people that sort of opportunity, which they would have never got, you expect that they can keep their deal and they never did.”

Peters told Newsroom to go ask other political parties whether they’d work with him and his party.

“The last election I was ruled out by everybody else, remember?

“So I think you should go and ask them, ‘Would you work with New Zealand First?’ Because this will be a very apposite question for them come the ‘26 election.”

Peters said he has a “rejuvenated” party and lots of keen, young people.

“A lot of realists out there are contacting us, even sometimes through the back door, saying; ‘you guys have got to go for it, because we don’t think we’re going to make it without you’.”

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Wednesday 14 January to Sunday 18 January 2026, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 7.6% were undecided on the party vote question.

Individual polls are just a snapshot in time and have a 3.1% margin of error, which means party support could be significantly higher or lower than these numbers suggest.