Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says the media has “gone a bit bananas” over speculation about his leadership after National’s slump in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll.
It follows his party’s disastrous 28.4% result in the latest Taxpayers’ Union - Curia poll released publicly on Friday. A deeper look at the results, with additional details obtained by Interest.co.nz, sheds light on the voter sentiment that helped spark last week’s turbulence.
Luxon's reaction
Luxon on Monday said the poll had been raised “in general” over the weekend.
“Last week wasn't the perfect week. And it's not surprising that I've raised that or talk that in passing. But only in passing.”
He said the media had “gone a bit bananas on it all, frankly”.
Asked if he thought the media reported on the speculation without talking to people in Luxon’s orbit, Luxon said, “I'm just reassuring you that our team is solid, we are good, and I know it's a big deal for you guys for last week, it's one of many public polls”.
“I'm talking to Kiwis every day and every week, and the key thing is their poll, which they tell me is they're frustrated with the cost of living and they're frustrated with the speed of the economic recovery, as Nicola [Willis] and I are as well, and that's what they want us to do. And come November 7, they get a great chance to have their say.”
Inside the poll
The poll also looked at the top issues for New Zealanders. The top issue - down slightly - was the cost of living at 30%, then the economy and then health.
Just over a third thought the country was going in the right direction, and 51% thought it was going in the wrong direction.
For preferred PM, Labour leader Chris Hipkins received a boost of 4.7 percentage points to 22.7%, while Luxon dipped slightly to 21%.
Further down, National MP Chris Bishop was the 7th most preferred, on 1.3%, Nicola Willis also on 1.3% and Erica Stanford was on 0.9%.
Those polled were also asked about the favourability of certain politicians. Hipkins had a net favourability of -5% (33% favourability and 38 unfavourability) and Luxon was at -19% (28% favourability and 46% unfavourability). ACT leader David Seymour was at -31% and NZ First leader Winston Peters was at -8%.
They were also asked about Bishop and Stanford. Stanford’s was -16% (20% favourability and 36% unfavourability) and Bishop’s was -14% (21% favourability and 35% unfavourability).
Speculation has surrounded Bishop and Stanford as being potential leadership contenders.
In previous recent Curia polls, National only went below 30% in January and October last year, both at 29.6%. In comparison, Labour went below 30% in April 2025, and in December, September, June and July in 2024.
It still leaves a very tight, volatile race between the left bloc and right bloc - with 61 projected seats to the left to the right’s 59.
In February it was even tighter - 60-60. In January it was 57 to the left and 63 to the right, which would give the coalition parties a more comfortable win.
Translated to seats in Parliament, Labour had 44, National 36, the Green Party and NZ First both had 13, ACT had 10 and Te Pati Māori had 4.
The poll was taken between March 1-3 of 1000 New Zealanders and weighted to the adult population. The maximum margin of error was +/- 3.1%.
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