Anna Whyte looks at Christopher Luxon's second National Party leadership confidence vote, his brutal ministerial sacking and what a new political poll means

• Christopher Luxon is still the country’s Prime Minister
• He sacked Chris Penk as a minister for a leadership challenge
• New polling sees large moves and Opportunity on 8%

In what feels like dejavu, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has swotted away yet another round of leadership speculation. This time only three months ahead of the election and only four months after his last leadership vote.

Standing in the exact same position in Parliament’s banquet hall with Nicola Willis on his right, Luxon read out another short statement, citing unity and a successful confidence vote by his caucus, before leaving media without taking questions.

Exactly like April’s confidence vote, where he moved a formal motion to confirm his leadership after reports of discontent in his caucus began to circulate and polls showed a sharp decline in public confidence.

In April, his notes were printed, this time they were handwritten. He and Willis stood alone in April. This time he stood with his top MPs, including Erica Stanford who was tipped as a potential leadership contender, and National Party president Silvia Wood.

"The caucus has answered clearly and decisively. It has backed my leadership. That matter is now closed, and it won't be, and I won't be commenting further on it,” Luxon said in April.

“I have the full support of our caucus,” he commented this week. “Our caucus is united and it is determined to win this election.”

But this time, Luxon delivered a brutal ministerial sacking. Defence Minister Chris Penk, widely viewed as a capable up and comer, lost his place in Cabinet following what Luxon said was a leadership challenge.

His position was untenable.

The country was more than six months out from the election last time, and now it’s only three.

Meaning for National, without the potential new leadership buoyancy most parties experience after a change, a rabbit out of the hat in the way of a turbo-driven election campaign will be needed to convince the country to come back on board.

The 1News Verian Poll, which was in the field up until Tuesday evening, had National steady on 29% and Labour down 2 %-points to 30%.

The Green Party was on 12%, ACT on 9%, NZ First on 8% and Opportunity Party was up to 8%. Interestingly, ACT was up by 3%-points and NZ First was down 3%-points since 1News’ last poll in June.

The right bloc would have 57 seats with those numbers if reflected on election day. Labour would have 38 and the Green Party would have 15 and Te Pati Maori would have six if they won back all their electorate seats, giving that side 59. Opportunity would have nine seats.

The magic number is 61, and Opportunity may be looking like an attractive coalition partner for Labour following Te Pati Maori’s recent internal troubles.

Parliament wraps up at the end of next month, rising on September 24 and dissolving on October 1 before the November 7 election. It's all at stake for these parties, and you can bet there will be even more drama as the country heads closer to the polls.