The following very useful Note was released by Alexanders, a Christchurch accounting firm that specialises in advice for agribusinesses. We thank them for permission to repost it.
1. Total food and fibre exports for the 2023 year ended: $57.4 billion.
2. Percent of total New Zealand merchandise trade from food and fibre: 81.8%.
3. New Zealand actual export revenue for the year ended 31 March 2023:
| Dairy | $25.425 billion | 44.3% |
| Meat and Wool | $12.375 billion | 21.6% |
| Forestry | $6.685 billion | 11.6% |
| Horticulture | $7.064 billion | 12.3% |
| Seafood | $2.007 billion | 3.5% |
| Arable | $0.242 billion | 0.4% |
| Processed Food and Other Products | $3.602 billion | 6.3% |
| -------- | ------ | |
| $57.4 billion | 100% |
4. Top 10 export countries in the 2023 year:
| China | $19.191 billion | 33.4% |
| USA | $5.842 billion | 10.2% |
| Australia | $4.848 billion | 8.5% |
| EU (excl. UK) | $3.709 billion | 6.5% |
| Japan | $3.099 billion | 5.4% |
| South Korea | $1.883 billion | 3.3% |
| Indonesia | $1.845 billion | 3.2% |
| Taiwan | $1.523 billion | 2.7% |
| Malaysia | $1.257 billion | 2.2% |
| Thailand | $1.206 billion | 2.1% |
| Other Destinations | $12.997 billion | 22.7% |
| -------- | ------ | |
| $57.4 billion | 100% |
5. Percent of exports to China of New Zealand total in the 2023 year:
| Rank | ||
| Forestry | 54% | (No 1) |
| Meat and Wool | 37% | (No 1) |
| Seafood | 36% | (No 1) |
| Dairy | 34% | (No 1) |
| Processed Food | 19% | (No 2) |
| Horticulture | 14% | (No 3) |
| Arable | 6% | (No 4) |
6. Percent of exports to Australia of New Zealand total in the 2023 year:
| Rank | ||
| Processed Food | 37% | (No 1) |
| Seafood | 14% | (No 3) |
| Horticulture | 13% | (No 4) |
| Arable | 12% | (No 2) |
| Forestry | 10% | (No 2) |
| Dairy | 5% | (No 3) |
| Meat and Wool | 3% | (No 5) |
7. Percent of exports to USA of New Zealand total in the 2023 year:
| Rank | ||
| Meat and Wool | 20% | (No 2) |
| Horticulture | 16% | (No 1) |
| Seafood | 15% | (No 2) |
| Arable | 9% | (No 3) |
| Processed Food | 8% | (No 3) |
| Forestry | 6% | (No 4) |
| Dairy | 5% | (No 4) |
8. Estimated overall financial effects of Cyclone Gabrielle on food and fibre in the 2023 year:
| Apples and Pears | $875 million |
| Forestry | $375 million |
| Vegetables | $250 million |
| Sheep, Beef and Deer | $250 million |
| Dairy | $150 million |
| Other Fruit | $150 million |
| Wine | $50 million |
| ------------ | |
| $2.1 billion |
9. Estimated food and fibre export revenue for the year to end 30 June 2027:
| Dairy | $28.250 billion |
| Meat and Wool | $11.920 billion |
| Horticulture | $8.630 billion |
| Forestry | $7.330 billion |
| Seafood | $2.350 billion |
| Arable | $0.260 billion |
| Processed Food and Other | $3.290 billion |
| -------------- | |
| $62.030 billion |
Note:
This $62.030 billion estimate is an increase on the 2023 year actual figure ($57.4 billion) of $4.630 billion or 8.07% - this represents over the four years an annual compound increase of 1.96%.
10. Peak New Zealand inflation rate was 7.2% at 30 September 2022 - is approximately 5.6% at 31 October 2023 - the USA at 31 October 2023 is 3.2%.
11. Number of New Zealand people employed directly and indirectly in the food and fibre sector: Approximately 360,000, which is around 12.3% of the total New Zealand labour force.
12. Increase in New Zealand consumer food prices over the year ended 30 April 2023: 12.5%.
13. Increase in New Zealand farm expenses price index from March 2022 to March 2023: 11.7%.
14. Key farm price increases were interest 51.6% and fertiliser 13.3% relative to the previous point.
15. Over the last 9.5 years the New Zealand Dollar has weakened relative to the USA Dollar by 31% - that is from $0.8675 in April 2014 to $0.5988 on 17 November 2023 - a $10,000 USD holiday in the USA at the present time would cost just on $16,000 NZD today.
16. Fonterra actual payouts for the last 15 years (per kg of milk solids):
| Year | Milk | Dividend | Total | ||
| 2009 year | 4.75/kg | $0.45/kg | $5.20/kg | ||
| 2010 year | $6.10/kg | $0.27/kg | $6.37/kg | ||
| 2011 year | $7.60/kg | $0.30/kg | $7.90/kg | ||
| 2012 year | $6.08/kg | $0.32/kg | $6.40/kg | ||
| 2013 year | $5.84/kg | $0.32/kg | $6.16/kg | ||
| 2014 year | $8.40/kg | $0.10/kg | $8.50/kg | ||
| 2015 year | $4.40/kg | $0.25/kg | $4.65/kg | ||
| 2016 year | $3.90/kg | $0.40/kg | $4.30/kg | ||
| 2017 year | $6.12/kg | $0.40/kg | $6.52/kg | ||
| 2018 year | $6.69/kg | $0.10/kg | $6.79/kg | ||
| 2019 year | $6.35/kg | $0.00/kg | $6.35/kg | ||
| 2020 year | $7.14/kg | $0.05/kg | $7.19/kg | ||
| 2021 year | $7.54/kg | $0.20/kg | $7.74/kg | ||
| 2022 year | $9.30/kg | $0.20/kg | $9.50/kg | ||
| 2023 year | $8.22/kg | $0.50/kg | $8.72/kg | ||
| ---------- | ---------- | ---------- | |||
| 15 year Average | $6.56/kg | $0.26/kg | $6.82/kg | ||
17. Estimated dairy stock and production:
| Actual | Estimates | |
| 30 Jun 23 | 30 Jun 27 | |
| Cows and Heifers in Milk | $4.78 million | $4.71 million |
| Milk Solids Production | 1,865,000 kg | 1,906,000 kg Milk |
| Solids per Average Cows Milked | 390 kg | 405 kg |
| Milk Solids Payout | $8.28/kg | $9.40/kg |
Notes:
- An estimated drop in cows in milk of 700,000 (14.64%).
- An estimated increase in production of 410,000 kg (2.2%).
- An estimated increase in kilograms per average cows milked of 15 kg (3.84%).
18. New Zealand actual and estimated meat and wool exports
| Year Ended | ||
| 30-Jun-19 | Actual | $10.176 billion |
| 30-Jun-20 | Actual | $10.617 billion |
| 30-Jun-21 | Actual | $10.373 billion |
| 30-Jun-22 | Actual | $12.310 billion |
| 30-Jun-23 | Estimate | $11.940 billion |
| 30-Jun-24 | Estimate | $11.440 billion |
| 30-Jun-25 | Estimate | $11.510 billion |
| 30-Jun-26 | Estimate | $11.700 billion |
| 30-Jun-27 | Estimate | $11.920 billion |
Note:
The 2027 year increase from the 2019 year is 17.13% - over the eight years this represents an annual compound increase of 2%.
19. New Zealand actual and estimated meat and wool export split:
| 2019 (Actual) | 2027 (Estimate) | |||
| Beef and Veal | $3,324 million | $4,420 million | ||
| Lamb | $3,227 million | $3,300 million | ||
| Mutton | $576 million | $590 million | ||
| Wool | $549 million | $450 million | ||
| Venison | $186 million | $160 million | ||
| Other Meat | $610 million | $700 million | ||
| Hides and Skins | $354 million | $260 million | ||
| Animal Co-Products | $729 million | $990 million | ||
| Animal Fats and Oils | $115 million | $300 million | ||
| Animal Products for Feed | $376 million | $650 million | ||
| Carpet and Wool Products | $130 million | $100 million | ||
| --------------- | --------------- | |||
| $10.176 billion | $11.920 billion | |||
20. Ten major New Zealand meat and wool export destinations for the year ended 31 March 2023:
| China | $4,602 million |
| USA | $2,441 million |
| EU (excl. UK) | $1,543 million |
| Japan | $551 million |
| UK | $413 million |
| Australia | $381 million |
| South Korea | $356 million |
| Taiwan | $313 million |
| Canada | $272 million |
| Indonesia | $176 million |
| Other Destinations | $922 million |
| --------------- | |
| $11.940 billion |
21. New Zealand five year average sheep and beef farm profitability to 30 June 2022: $162,315,
estimated for 2023 year: $146,300 per farm - will be significantly lower for the 2024 year.
22. Sheep and cattle numbers - actual and estimated:
| Actual 2019 |
Actual 2023 |
Estimated 2027 |
|
| (a) Beef Cattle | 3.9 million | 3.8 million | 3.6 million |
| (b) Dairy Cattle | 6.3 million | 6.1 million | 6.0 million |
| (c) Sheep | 26.8 million | 24.9 million | 23.2 million |
| (d) Deer | 800,000 | 700,000 | 700,000 |
| (e) Breeding Ewes (1) | 16.8 million | 15.4 million | 14.5 million |
| (1) Included in total sheep numbers in line (c). | |||
23. Estimated overall sheep numbers in Australia at 30 June 2023: 79 million.
24. Estimated New Zealand shearing costs per head in 2024 year: $6.15 per head.
25. New Zealand strong wool (above 31.4 microns) constitutes 71% of New Zealand wool processed for export.
26. Estimated horticulture export revenue in the year to end 30 June 2027:
| Kiwifruit | $3.75 billion |
| Wine | $2.60 billion |
| Apples and Pears | $0.92 billion |
| Fresh and Processed Vegetables | $0.81 billion |
| Other Horticulture | $0.55 billion |
| -------------- | |
| Total Export Value | $8.630 billion |
27. Comments from an accountant's desk:
- New Zealand exports of technology of various kinds is now around $11.5 billion and is around 14% of New Zealand total export income. This sector employs 63,000 people.
- Another key export industry is personal and business travel.
- One of New Zealand's weaknesses is its poor productivity record - working more hours is not productivity as measured but it is what many New Zealand people do - such as the writer.
- The New Zealand Government tax take from dairy, sheep and beef is going to be lower than they have budgeted for in the 2024 year and probably also the 2025 year at this point.
- The pathway/direction of forestry planting in New Zealand for carbon farming effectively is confusing and needs more focus and involvement of key parties in the forestry and farming camps.
- The tax take from New Zealand agriculture is much smaller than might be anticipated even in a so-called normal year, but their contribution towards New Zealand exports is a quite different story.
- The new New Zealand Government needs to make some hard decisions early on - deferring hard decisions is what the bottom group in every sector do.
14 Comments
It's a great list, and I will refence it from time to time.
But it is missing the two most important figures; calories in and calories out.
And essential portion of the former (as I keep trying to get into the conversation) is from a finite resource. The question are then: How long will that keep going? And: how do we do 'calories out' beyond that?
Exactly PDK, it isn't the land providing the produce and income as it has only a very limited supply of nutrients.
NZ AG is based on imported NPKS particularly phosphate. These nutrients are imported from countries as far away as Morocco Nth Africa.
As the price goes up for these nutrients the viability of farms to produce becomes harder without subsidies. And who pays the subsidies?
Thanks Hans .
I think there used to be a lot more cropping land around Marton etc, if only as a rotation with sheep . the old mixed farm in school c geography. i would have thought Covid supply problems would have taught us to be at least minimally self sufficent .
Crops like quinoa seem promising, and would be a good ingredient in Fart (plant based ) burgers.
This is always the problem Ag Man, traditional crops we need are hard to produce in NZ so we are stuck with heaps of protein.
I have never tried quinoa knowingly so can't say if it is good or not. I do agree that it is unlikely to make the list of wanted items on the global dietary list.
Sobering numbers. Great collection, thanks.
I read the increases in production per cow as productivity increases? Less cows, more milk.
As a former small scale sheep and beef farmer, I remember the confusing signals as we thought carefully about what we needed to do about strong wool. So carefully that, as Pita observes, this industry was in the lower quarter, did nothing, now a remnant.
Who also remembers the hype around the change in the diary industry lead by a member of a professional organization that Pita and I were members of?
Compared to Hort, it seems our pastoral sector is less well managed. But this collection shows it is still the pastoral sector with the big numbers. Big thinking is needed, asap.
As we struggle with our deficit in infrastructure, cynically I could say that the poor policy from central government to support the primary sector, in fact the disdain it is held, will assist NZ meet it's global warming targets. If it becomes uneconomic to farm, I guess we won't earn the overseas funds, so won't have the imports. Suddenly we are clean and green? Pass me my knitting neddles, the emperor needs new clothes.
Good data
When you break it down in the last 2023 figures (land area from Stats NZ)
Export Revenue per ha Land used
Dairy $11,557 2.2mill ha
Meat and Wool $1,820 6.8mill ha
Forestry $4,178 1.6mill ha
Horticulture $53,515 132k ha
IT Massive might be 200ha if lucky
Since 2002 land area by landuse has changed (Stats NZ)
Dairy + 1 million ha
Meat and wool - 2.9 million ha
Forestry - 200k
Horticulture +23k
Where has all the 1.9 million ha other meat and wool land gone after Dairy?? - my guess is mainly native reversion and some Tenure review.
Looking at the 2027 export forecasts - difference to 2023
Dairy + 2.8 billion
Meat and Wool - 450k
Forestry + 650k
Horticulture + 1.6 billion
IT ??? But I would say a lot more
Income per person employed in 2023
All Primary Sector - $159,000
IT sector - $182,000
The trend is clear.
Watch the IT sector - it will only keep getting bigger - bets on how long before it overtakes Dairy??
Trouble is we've been watching the IT sector for years and still dairy is top of the tree. I would have thought the $ difference per employed would have been way more than $20k, but then lucky you didn't add in tourism just for laughs.
I'm not pro dairy even though it's what I do. But I am cynical that there is something out there to earn NZ more as I've been waiting my whole life.
Well you never know but at the end of the day we need them both - I'm not anti dairy just pointing out where things are trending and the rise of IT - Tech has done this around the world and whos to say it will continue? maybe something else - I dont know.
Hort and Dairy look like the big gainers going forward as well.
What these numbers don't show is what is the cost associated with producing this income? - I would guess that tech has a much lower input cost - apart from labour.
Thats the key really all good selling something but is there anything left after costs - if not you are better to stop, or will be forced to by going broke!!
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.