November log prices were little-changed, but China is anticipating more NZ supply keeping a lid on prices there. India prospects depend on FTA progress. Seasonal domestic prices are usually firm from here

November AWG (At Wharf Gate) prices for export logs were relatively unchanged from October. Sawlog prices increased by an average of +NZ$1 per JASm3 while prices for pruned logs increased +NZ$4 per JASm3.

CFR log prices in China have recently dropped -US$2 and prices remain under pressure, with a recent drop in wholesale log prices.

Demand remains stable but the market is anticipating increased supply from New Zealand over its summer period. Lower shipping costs and a weaker NZD are offsetting the lower sale prices in China. Movements in freight and currency over the coming days will influence December AWG prices. 

There are a variety of reasons to expect that Quarter 1 2026 may prove a little more favourable for New Zealand sawmillers, after what has been an especially challenging 2025. An increase in domestic demand will mean less sawn timber needs to be exported.

The PF Olsen Log Price Index increased $1 to $122. This is $2 above the two-year average and $1 above the five-year average.

Domestic Log Market 

Log Prices are anticipated to remain stable during Quarter 1 2026. Demand for industrial-grade timber typically increases at this time of year, driven largely by demand for pallets and packaging used for exporting seasonal fruit harvests. This increase in domestic sales will reduce the amount of volume that needs to be exported to Asia.

The supply chain disruption around the US tariffs for pruned sawn timber to the US will settle down as well. For new sales contracts, the tariff cost will be built into pricing from the outset. There was uncertainly and negotiation around who was paying the tariff for existing supply agreements. This clarity around cost allocation should remove a major source of uncertainty that has recently weighed on domestic producers and marketers.

There are also very early signs of a modest domestic recovery in sawn-timber demand. Given that structural sawn-timber supply has been trimmed substantially, small regional shortages may emerge in Quarter 1, which could tighten the market, particularly for structural grades.

Export Log Markets

China  

CFR prices for A-grade logs for December vessel arrivals are currently in the range of USD 112–119 per JASm³. This is one of the widest price ranges in recent times. Prices are based on customer relationships with longevity and consistency of supply, grade and length mix, port, and vessel timing.     

Daily pine log port offtake remains steady at around 55,000 m³, with no expectation of increased demand in the near term. The market anticipates higher log supply from New Zealand over the summer months, although this will be tempered somewhat by extended Christmas–New Year shutdowns among larger forest owners.

From January to September, China imported 23.96 million m³ of logs - 22% lower than the same period last year. Softwood log imports were 18.02 million m³, down 8%, while hardwood log imports fell more sharply to 5.94 million m³, a 25% decline. New Zealand supply remained stable, recording a 1% increase year-on-year and now accounting for 75% of China’s total softwood supply and 57% of total log imports.

On 10 November, China’s General Administration of Customs lifted its suspension on imports of US logs. Although the official rationale cites the implementation of corrective phytosanitary measures by the United States, the decision is widely interpreted as reflecting broader improvements in China–US trade relations. Historically, US log exports to China have been weighted toward hardwood logs rather than softwood logs. Vietnam is also currently oversupplied, meaning some volume may divert to China, particularly higher-grade A-log material that Vietnam typically consumes. While neither of these developments is expected to materially increase total supply into China, any additional volume is unhelpful for an already fragile supply–demand balance.

The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI eased to 50.6 in October, down from 51.2 in September, reflecting slower growth in both new orders and output. Export sales declined at their fastest pace since May, highlighting ongoing global trade uncertainty and persistent pressure on China’s manufacturing sector.

In regulatory developments, the European Parliament has voted to delay and simplify the implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), potentially pushing its entry into force out by up to two years. The regulation seeks to prevent products associated with deforestation from entering the EU market and requires strict supply-chain traceability back to the exact land parcel of origin. New Zealand’s log supply chain was relatively well positioned to comply compared with many competing origins. However, this does mean the supply chain won't have the increased administration costs.
 
Additionally, the European Commission has imposed final anti-dumping duties of 86.8% on imports of Chinese hardwood plywood—substantially higher than the provisional 62.4% duty introduced in May. The increase reflects findings that some Chinese exporters attempted to reclassify hardwood plywood as softwood plywood by adding an extremely thin softwood veneer layer purely to achieve a different customs code and lower duty rate. In most cases this softwood veneer could be scraped off. The Commission has now closed this loophole by introducing a revised customs classification, bypass duties, and enhanced monitoring measures.

India

A New Zealand Timber Trade Delegation — comprising forest owners, sawmillers, and log exporters, and led by Hon Todd McClay, Minister for Trade — recently visited Mumbai, Kandla, and New Delhi. The delegation engaged with sawmills, inspected operations at Kandla Port, and held discussions with the Indian Phytosanitary Authorities.

A reception hosted by New Zealand’s High Commissioner to India at his New Delhi residence brought together the delegation and key Indian pine-trade stakeholders. New Zealand delegates expressed cautious optimism regarding the potential for progress on a New Zealand–India free trade agreement and for possible easing of India’s phytosanitary requirements for radiata pine imports.

If both developments were to eventuate, the combined effect could reduce transaction costs for New Zealand radiata pine logs by approximately US$10 per JAS m³. Such a reduction would materially improve New Zealand’s competitiveness in India and likely shift demand further away from South American supply.

Anticipating stronger demand, around 10 vessels are expected to arrive at Kandla Port during December. New Zealand radiata pine logs are currently being sold at US$137 CFR per JASm3 for A-grade logs for December shipment and January arrival.

In Gandhidham, green sawn-timber prices for radiata pine are INR 551 per cubic foot. Comparative prices include INR 561–571 per CFT for Southern Yellow Pine from the United States and INR 521–531 per CFT for South American Pinus taeda. 

Tuticorin continues to experience its north-east monsoon, which will persist until mid-December. Green sawn timber derived from New Zealand radiata pine is currently trading at INR 651 per CFT.

Ocean Freight

Shipping costs often reduce slightly in December and January as ocean freight demand drops.

The BDI is a composite index derived from three sub-indices representing different vessel sizes: Capesize (40%), Panamax (30%), and Supramax (30%). It reflects the average daily USD hire rates across 20 major ocean freight routes. While most New Zealand log exports are transported via Handysize vessels (not directly included in the BDI), this segment remains closely influenced by broader trends in the index.

^{Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Source: TradingEconomics.com}

^{Singapore Bunker Price (VLSO) (red line) versus Brent Oil Price (grey line)
Source: Ship & Bunker}

PF Olsen Log Price Index - November 2025 

The PF Olsen Log Price Index increased $1 to $122. This is $2 above the two-year average and $1 above the five-year average.

^{Basis of Index: This Index is based on prices in the table below weighted in proportions that represent
a broad average of log grades produced from a typical pruned forest with an
approximate mix of 40% domestic and 60% export supply.}

Indicative Average Current Log Prices – November 2025

Note: Actual prices will vary according to regional supply/demand balances, varying cost structures and grade variation. These prices should be used as a guide only.

A longer series of these prices is available here.

This article is reproduced from PF Olsen's Wood Matters, with permission.