OPINION: Jon Morgans catch-cry has always been "Follow the science". I believe that science, with its rigid and thorough testing of ideas and experiments, followed by peer review of the methods and results, shows us the truth of a matter. Late last year, I put up the idea that to reduce nitrogen leaching in sensitive catchments perhaps organic dairying might be worth a try. Organic farmers can't grow grass as well as conventional farmers and therefore their stocking rates are lower. But they are paid a premium by the dairy companies and the farmer converting to organics would not have lost money. The response was mixed, to say the least. Organic industry people welcomed me with open arms. Conventional farmers abused me for falling for the tosh spouted by greenies. But I could also have followed the science. It's a good thing I have Doug Edmeades to put me right. Dr Edmeades is a soil scientist who works independently of local and central government, crown research institutes and fertiliser, meat and dairy companies. His firm is called agknowledge. He is no fan of organics, saying it harms soil health long-term, but put that aside. He thinks that in their rush to meet the industry's incessant demand for more milk from more cows, farmers are undermining their biggest asset - the clover-based pasture our climate produces. The cost of growing a kilogram of our ryegrass-clover pasture is 2-3c, compared with 10-12c in the northern hemisphere where it is too cold to keep cows outside all year and too cold for clover. "And what are we doing with our competitive advantage?" he asks. "Nitrogen fertiliser, supplements, feed pads, herd homes, irrigation. They all add costs, but do they increase profits?" In many cases, it appears not. He produces DairyNZ research that shows a huge range in profitability of farms producing 100,000kg of milksolids, around the industry's average per farm, ranging from a loss of $200 a hectare to a profit of $2000. Further DairyNZ research demonstrates the gamble intensive, high-stocking dairy farmers take. Using more supplements at the expense of pasture only pays off when the payout is higher than $5.50 a kg of milksolids. Pasture-only farms are always profitable, and more so if the payout is below $4.50.
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