Prime lamb prices may be soaring, but analysts still predict a 3% reduction in ewe numbers this year, following a 10% decline last year. M&WNZ's Economic Service executive director Rob Davison said the expected decrease of one million ewes would be accentuated by an ageing flock, low retention of females, drought and continued land-use change, albeit at a slower rate than in previous years. This would take the ewe flock to about 33 million, but Mr Davison forecasts a heavier lambing due to favourable conditions when ewes went to the ram reports The ODT. He expected 27.85 million lambs to be born this spring, 850,000 more than last spring. "This outlook, as usual, depends on a normal spring and variations in the outcome depend on actual spring conditions." A continued shortage of lamb could see sheep farmers enjoy a second year of close to $90 for their prime lambs. Alliance Group chief executive Grant Cuff could see no reason for lamb prices to ease next year, other than an unfavourable exchange rate. Sales through retail outlets in Europe and the United Kingdom were strong, as the recession encouraged consumers to eat at home. While exchange rate movement remained a threat, banks and observers have forecast it to weaken in the coming year due to a low official cash rate of 2.5%. Silver Fern Farms chief executive Keith Cooper said another reason for strong prices was the greater volume of lamb being sold as chilled and earning premium prices. "There is a totally different matrix of product types and forms," he said. The ANZ commodity price index, which tracks movement in the price of commodities, reported this week the index for lamb hit a 23-year high and indications from companies were that that momentum was unlikely to slow. Mr Davison said this season's 27 million lamb crop was the smallest in 51 years and resulted in a 23% decline in the number of lambs available for slaughter. Next season's lamb crop would be the second lowest in 52 yearsLast year's lambing was 113%, the lowest in five years, but the better condition of ewes this autumn could see, weather permitting, a lambing of 118% to 119% next spring.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.