Part One of a Four part series that looks at the direction of New Zealands research priorities for the future, given in a speech to the NZ Institute of Agricultural and Horticultural Science.
By Dr Willam Rolleston
It is my pleasure to speak to you on research priorities for agriculture and horticulture.
Before I begin to outline some thoughts that will be challenging at times, I first wish to make comment to you on the research priorities according to New Zealander of the year, Sir Paul Callaghan.
I quote: “We are brilliantly successful at dairying, but sadly we cannot scale up this industry because of the risk of further environmental damage.” What’s more, apparently, “our dairy industry exports milk powder, rather than developing new products. Our forestry industries send raw logs offshore and despite the past capacity to invest in processing, have shown no inclination to do so.”
So there you have it. We can all pack our bags, go back to our offices, send dismissal notices to our staff and report to Ministers, the scientific community and the public, that biologically, we are as good as we can ever possibly be.
On TVNZ’s Back Benches, I was asked if we could have a vibrant agricultural sector and other exporters. It was a simple question that demanded an equally simple answer.
Of course we can.
This is not a question of ‘either or’, yet that thinking tends to bedevil our approach to research and to economic development.
I know Sir Paul has low regard for the biotech sector. In fact he wrote in the Herald: “I saw the waste of the last 10 years when we biased our science “system” to chase the Biotech fashion. We should not make the same mistake again”.
However, isn’t he making the exact same mistake in his dismissal of the biological economy and his promotion of the physical sciences economy? What I would call, “tricks and gadgets”.
Sir Paul is passionate about physics every bit as I am passionate about agriculture, biotechnology and science in general. I celebrate that our top 100 technology companies collectively export around $5 billion per annum; a quarter of Fonterra’s revenue. I would celebrate even more if 500 more technology companies existed to match what we export each year from the primary sector.
We don’t have to have a ‘tricks and gadget’ or a purely biological economy, we ought to have both. I will take it as a given that this audience has a view that our biological economy is worth investing in, so before we address the issue of priorities, let us try and put our agricultural production in a global context.
Population and food security
As a species we currently face our largest challenge ever - that is, the two people who join humanity every second, of every minute, of every hour.
In the time my session takes today, the human race will have grown by around 3,600 people.
That sobering number represents an enormous challenge to international order and our modern civilisation. Our rate of population growth means 1.2 million more people are born each week. By the end of 2012, there will be something like 64 million more people on earth than at the beginning of the year.
At the Cairns Group meeting in Canada recently, food security was the dominant issue because it influences global security. Future wars could flare over access to land, water, food or energy. Or even the freedom to gain from their use.
There are those in the environmental movement who consider population can only be brought under control though resource limitation; in other words starvation.
We have seen in countries like Haiti, that overpopulation coupled with resource and technology limitation, leads only to environmental destruction. Perhaps those statues on Easter Island are the oldest warnings underscoring this point.
It is quite clear that economic prosperity and the increased certainty for survival that prosperity brings, are key drivers for smaller families and population control.
Market demand
The second global issue is that, as families reduce in size, children become more precious to their parents who become more risk adverse.
They want safe food for their children and life prolonging products for themselves.
The environment
Third, there is a concern, in the first world at least, for the environment. This is manifested in numerous forms the most notable being organic foods, opposition to genetic modification and climate change.
Locally, the pressure on our waterways and biodiversity is a concern for many.
Land
Fourth, while the population expands we are not making any more land.
The number of hectares available for food production per person has steadily dropped from 0.44 hectares in 1960 to 0.26 hectares in 1999.
By the time world population is expected to peak at 9-10 billion in 2050, the number of hectares available per person is predicted to be 0.15.
The green revolution of the 1960s, with the use of pesticides, fertiliser and new hybrid seeds, gave us a quantum lift in production.
These were not New Zealand inventions but New Zealand farmers and scientists adopted and adapted them to maintain our agricultural leadership. It is obvious that the world needs new technologies to make similar quantum leaps.
The competition
Fifth, New Zealand also exists in a competitive market.
The developing sophistication of agriculture, in places like South America, is a competitive threat.
The rapid deployment of genetic modification around the world is eroding our competitiveness through increased productivity and reduced environmental impact.
Location
Finally, we live in a globalised world.
Technology allows the ready movement of people, capital and ideas across borders.
Physical technology companies can be based anywhere there is a skilled labour force, sufficient energy and capital. Technology, in the physical sense, is fast moving and highly mobile.
Out of the top 10 technology kiwi high fliers, Fisher and Paykel Appliances, Fisher and Paykel Healthcare and Rakon have moved significant manufacturing offshore.
Of “NZ's technology top 20”, Fisher & Paykel Appliances is partially overseas owned, Navman is partially Kiwi owned while Nextwindow is no longer New Zealand owned at all. Allied Telesis is a Japanese company.
By contrast, the global population growth curve demands solutions from those economies with the vital resources of water, land and people.
In that respect, New Zealand’s geopolitical position and economic profile, makes it attractive in a resource hungry world. There is major scope to develop highly profitable companion industries off our primary base. To ensure our research efforts make a difference we need to have an appropriate research spend and an effective science system with the right incentives.
---------------------------
Dr William Rolleston is a South Canterbury farmer and founding shareholder and director of South Pacific Sera. The current Federated Farmers South Canterbury provincial president and current Vice President of the national organisation. Dr Rolleston also chairs the Ministry of Science and Innovation's Innovation Board.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.