The Weekly Dairy Report: Some farmers hit with feed shortages and low prices but as yet production holds on

I'm sure the New Zealand government is more determined than ever to increase that agricultural output and productivity.

best rethink your drink - water is free? add a slice of lemon if you need some flavour

but hats off to nestle (something out of nothing)

http://www.nestle.com/brands/allbrands/spellegrino

With a tradition of excellence and fine taste since 1899, S.Pellegrino sparkling mineral water is an extraordinary combination of exceptionally pure water and minerals. It has a distinct sophisticated taste which has help make it the sparkling mineral water preferred by top restaurants worldwide.

- they even have to tell people how it tastes (cause nobody knows - lol)..

having said that, their milk price is up against the supers...

and well played by the massively over-captalised supermarkets (with dairy coolers at the back of the shop enabling punters to load you on sugar laced impluse purchases [&chippes]), within the highly leveraged retail centres

I like your logic but think the RBNZ's 10% is conservative unless it is based on operating units (where 10% made up of mainly larger corporates could easily represent 15-25% of production).

It is past time the RBNZ updated their analysis.

(A) is from a political decision to try and preserve racial mixes.  If your race is a minor portion of your prefecture then you can have several children.  If you are of the dominant race of the area you are limited to one child..



Due to a growing elderly population compared to working population China is re-evaluating this policy - after all why should they limit their population if no-one else is, their families love their babies and children just as much as other countries.

A+B+C (D was A+B) The interest in imported milk and formula in particular was that local milk could/cannot be trusted layered over that local volume could not be found. 

The per capita figures are comparatively low, you need look at comparative income/asia product (cheese, yoghurt, fluid milk) elasticity’s i.e. lactose intol. not the issue.

E.g. After allowing for average income levels, overall the consumption per capita picture is superior for fresh dairy and milk powders over cheese and butter. Over the last ten years, worldwide consumption per capita for fresh dairy and milk powders has risen 15% compared to 7% for cheese. Within fresh dairy and milk powders category, milk powders is the standout performer with worldwide consumption per capita increasing by 21% over the last ten years. In particular, milk powders is the only dairy product with no obvious variance in consumption between Asian and non-Asian countries. We believe this reflects limited availability of fresh milk products and greater reliance on paediatric milk formulas in Asia.

E You need see the whole GS report/s, eg they also say global clearing price will revert to $3,900 (happy days). Problem was the SS/DD was the only one liner a sub editor/s could use.....

Integrating country-specific assumptions with our macro-economic forecasts through our global dairy demand/supply model reveals five dominant global themes over the next five years or so, being:

· A move to above-trend global production growth (2013-2018E CAGR of 2.6% vs. longrun

average of 2.3%) through removal of EU quota restrictions, higher US farm

profitability helped by lower feed costs, and substantial commercial farm investment in

China.

· Below-trend growth in global dairy consumption (2013-2018E CAGR of 2.0% vs. longrun

average of 2.5%) with a more moderate income stimulus with Asia being the key

source of growth. We expect lowest demand growth amongst major countries in EU,

Russia and Japan.

· After a short-term bounce due to ongoing Chinese production shortfall, WMP (whole

milk powder) prices trend back towards US$3,900/tonne as the world adsorbs greater

milk supplies. The short-term risk to this forecast is probably to the downside due to

lower feed costs.

· A shift to a feed-based marginal producer, like the US, with higher production costs.

This creates a floor in global commodity prices and sees continued spread of private

label and discount retailers of everyday dairy products with raised price sensitivity

associated with structurally high (versus long-run average) farmgate milk prices.

(think through what this would mean)

· A gradual recovery in the cheese price, relative to WMP, due to stronger US demand

and new processing capacity skewed towards milk powder in key exporting countries.

F.   Sadly many in finance and economic sectors don't believe that is true.  The more education they have the more they "know" it isn't true.    If the costs go up, then it's the business persons fault, and they will be replaced by a business person who is better skilled.



Yes they really do believe it.

Some even see the business failures as a good sign that "all the poor performers are dropping out of the market" and "will be replaced by more productive performers".



This is because that is what is taught in that economic model.



they see such things as "freeing up opportunities for better business people and passing on the savings to the consumer"



This is the fallacy of the infinite ability to improve.  And goes hand in hand with the broken window fallacy (that as long as money is spend then economic advancement is happening).