Jason Wong

Fed speakers stick to the party line on much more policy work to do to reduce inflation. Market wakes up and drives US rates a lot higher, up 17-23bps across much of the curve. Higher rates drive USD higher

Fed speakers stick to the party line on much more policy work to do to reduce inflation. Market wakes up and drives US rates a lot higher, up 17-23bps across much of the curve. Higher rates drive USD higher

US ISM manufacturing weaker, but not as weak as feared; Still, components are consistent with a developing economic recession. As a further indicator of recession, US 2s10s fall deeper into negative territory, now minus 30bps

US ISM manufacturing weaker, but not as weak as feared; Still, components are consistent with a developing economic recession. As a further indicator of recession, US 2s10s fall deeper into negative territory, now minus 30bps

Fed hikes by 75bps but Chair Powell not as hawkish as feared. Dotplot showing 100bps over remaining 3 meetings this year. US equities extend rally, US Treasury rates fall, USD weakens as Powell speaks

Fed hikes by 75bps but Chair Powell not as hawkish as feared. Dotplot showing 100bps over remaining 3 meetings this year. US equities extend rally, US Treasury rates fall, USD weakens as Powell speaks

Negative economic news flow continues with weaker US data and IMF global growth outlook downgrade. EU agrees to cut gas consumption by 15%; gas prices surge again

Negative economic news flow continues with weaker US data and IMF global growth outlook downgrade. EU agrees to cut gas consumption by 15%; gas prices surge again

Gasprom to cut Nordstream gas supply to 20% of capacity from Wednesday. EUR unperturbed and weak Germany business confidence data has little impact as well. US Treasury yields higher, reversing some of Friday's fall

Gasprom to cut Nordstream gas supply to 20% of capacity from Wednesday. EUR unperturbed and weak Germany business confidence data has little impact as well. US Treasury yields higher, reversing some of Friday's fall

US market pares back rate hike expectations after Fed-speak on preference for "only" a 75bps hike later this month; curve unwinds some of yesterday's flattening

US market pares back rate hike expectations after Fed-speak on preference for "only" a 75bps hike later this month; curve unwinds some of yesterday's flattening

Oh dear, another US CPI inflation shocker. Market brings a 100bps hike into play for late July. BoC doesn't mess about and surprises with a 100bps hike. Significant US Treasuries curve flattening, signaling recession

Oh dear, another US CPI inflation shocker. Market brings a 100bps hike into play for late July. BoC doesn't mess about and surprises with a 100bps hike. Significant US Treasuries curve flattening, signaling recession

Oil down -7% on global recession fears. German rates tumble on recession fears. USD strength reverses course overnight; EUR comes within a whisker of parity before recovering

Oil down -7% on global recession fears. German rates tumble on recession fears. USD strength reverses course overnight; EUR comes within a whisker of parity before recovering

Risk appetite weaker, not helped by China COVID flare-up and angst over US CPI this week and start of US earnings season. Global equities weaker, global rates lower

Risk appetite weaker, not helped by China COVID flare-up and angst over US CPI this week and start of US earnings season. Global equities weaker, global rates lower

Stronger than expected US jobs data while average hourly earnings inflation on a weaker trajectory, consistent with no evidence of wage-price spiral or sense of a "real" US economic recession ... yet. Global rates push higher on the data

Stronger than expected US jobs data while average hourly earnings inflation on a weaker trajectory, consistent with no evidence of wage-price spiral or sense of a "real" US economic recession ... yet. Global rates push higher on the data

Global recession fears hit markets on little fresh news. Europe hit the hardest, not helped by renewed focus on gas shortages. EUR tumbles to a near 20-year low. NZ rates set up for lower levels today

Global recession fears hit markets on little fresh news. Europe hit the hardest, not helped by renewed focus on gas shortages. EUR tumbles to a near 20-year low. NZ rates set up for lower levels today

European rates higher as wild ride continues. Hawkish ECB talk continues as well. Media suggest Biden will roll back some Chinese import tariffs this week

European rates higher as wild ride continues. Hawkish ECB talk continues as well. Media suggest Biden will roll back some Chinese import tariffs this week

Weak US spending data could mean their economy was in recession in first half of 2022; PCE deflators also softer than expected. Global rates show big falls; Germany 2-year rate down 20bps; US Treasuries 5-year down 14bps

Weak US spending data could mean their economy was in recession in first half of 2022; PCE deflators also softer than expected. Global rates show big falls; Germany 2-year rate down 20bps; US Treasuries 5-year down 14bps

Weaker US consumer confidence rocks US equities. US Treasury yields little changed. European rates higher on tough talking ECB

Weaker US consumer confidence rocks US equities. US Treasury yields little changed. European rates higher on tough talking ECB

Global rates reverse course and head higher again; UST yields up 6-8bps. NZ rates fall playing catch-up to global moves at the end of last week

Global rates reverse course and head higher again; UST yields up 6-8bps. NZ rates fall playing catch-up to global moves at the end of last week

Risk sentiment improves with less policy tightening priced into curves; S&P500 up over 3% on Friday. Data on PMIs and US inflation expectations drive global rates lower; NZ rates market to play catch-up after Friday holiday

Risk sentiment improves with less policy tightening priced into curves; S&P500 up over 3% on Friday. Data on PMIs and US inflation expectations drive global rates lower; NZ rates market to play catch-up after Friday holiday

Risk appetite appears weaker on increasing global recession fears. Chunky falls in global rates, commodities broadly weaker and NZD and AUD underperform

Risk appetite appears weaker on increasing global recession fears. Chunky falls in global rates, commodities broadly weaker and NZD and AUD underperform

Strong bounce-back in US equities after the US public holiday, with S&P 500 up 2.5%; global rates push higher

Strong bounce-back in US equities after the US public holiday, with S&P 500 up 2.5%; global rates push higher

Risk appetite slightly higher, with global equities and rates higher. Bullard sees inflation fight winnable without recession. Quiet trading in financial markets with the US public holiday

Risk appetite slightly higher, with global equities and rates higher. Bullard sees inflation fight winnable without recession. Quiet trading in financial markets with the US public holiday

Modest changes in US equities and USTs on Friday, but caps off a wild week in markets. Oil prices tumble 5-7%, commodities market generally weaker in the face of rising global recession risk. AUD under pressure

Modest changes in US equities and USTs on Friday, but caps off a wild week in markets. Oil prices tumble 5-7%, commodities market generally weaker in the face of rising global recession risk. AUD under pressure

Surprise 50bps hike by the Swiss National Bank. US economic dataflow much weaker than expected. USD tumbles as recession fears trump safe-haven bid, amid chunky falls in equity markets

Surprise 50bps hike by the Swiss National Bank. US economic dataflow much weaker than expected. USD tumbles as recession fears trump safe-haven bid, amid chunky falls in equity markets

Market prices in more aggressive Fed tightening, 75bps this week and a likely follow-up move next month. US Treasury yields continue rise across the curve; 10-year rate approaching 3.5%

Market prices in more aggressive Fed tightening, 75bps this week and a likely follow-up move next month. US Treasury yields continue rise across the curve; 10-year rate approaching 3.5%

Markets in turmoil; US equities down 3%; USTs up about 20bps across the curve. As inflation fears increase and market prices in much more aggressive tightening. UK has recession on its doorstep and possible trade war with EU

Markets in turmoil; US equities down 3%; USTs up about 20bps across the curve. As inflation fears increase and market prices in much more aggressive tightening. UK has recession on its doorstep and possible trade war with EU

Strong US CPI inflation data destroys the inflation-has-peaked narrative. Stagflation in focus as US consumer sentiment falls to a record low as well and long-term inflation expectations rise

Strong US CPI inflation data destroys the inflation-has-peaked narrative. Stagflation in focus as US consumer sentiment falls to a record low as well and long-term inflation expectations rise

ECB offers a hawkish policy update; guides a 25bps hike in July and 50bps in September. Commodity currencies whacked on weaker risk sentiment. NZ 10 year NZGB closes at a 7-year high

ECB offers a hawkish policy update; guides a 25bps hike in July and 50bps in September. Commodity currencies whacked on weaker risk sentiment. NZ 10 year NZGB closes at a 7-year high