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Nick Smyth
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Equities and bond yields fall after reports that a US-China ‘Phase-Two’ agreement will be difficult. USD weakens sharply after Powell says the hurdle for Fed hikes is very high. NZ rates rise as market pares back November OCR cut pricing to 50%.
1st Nov 19, 8:35am
Equities and bond yields fall after reports that a US-China ‘Phase-Two’ agreement will be difficult. USD weakens sharply after Powell says the hurdle for Fed hikes is very high. NZ rates rise as market pares back November OCR cut pricing to 50%.
Fed cuts 25bps, hints as rate pause – limited reaction so far as market waits for Powell Q&A. Bank of Canada signals easing bias – Canadian dollar and rates drop sharply. Little movement in NZD overnight; ANZ Business Survey this afternoon.
31st Oct 19, 8:23am
Fed cuts 25bps, hints as rate pause – limited reaction so far as market waits for Powell Q&A. Bank of Canada signals easing bias – Canadian dollar and rates drop sharply. Little movement in NZD overnight; ANZ Business Survey this afternoon.
Markets consolidate ahead of FOMC tomorrow morning. UK set for December election – GBP receives initial boost. NZ rates move sharply higher yesterday – some nervousness around a Nov OCR cut.
30th Oct 19, 8:02am
Markets consolidate ahead of FOMC tomorrow morning. UK set for December election – GBP receives initial boost. NZ rates move sharply higher yesterday – some nervousness around a Nov OCR cut.
Global rates and equities higher on trade optimism. GBP supported by EU offer of 3-month Brexit extension. NZD underperforms despite risk-on backdrop.
29th Oct 19, 7:54am
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Global rates and equities higher on trade optimism. GBP supported by EU offer of 3-month Brexit extension. NZD underperforms despite risk-on backdrop.
Optimism for a Brexit deal continues to build (although no news yet) - GBP hits 5 month high. Little movement in global rates and equities overnight. NZD underperforms after RBNZ's. Bascand says “reasonable prospect” of a lower OCR
17th Oct 19, 7:52am
Optimism for a Brexit deal continues to build (although no news yet) - GBP hits 5 month high. Little movement in global rates and equities overnight. NZD underperforms after RBNZ's. Bascand says “reasonable prospect” of a lower OCR
Market sentiment a bit more cautious to start the week. Trading activity light with some international holidays. Partial reversal of last week's move up with bond yields, NZD, AUD all lower
15th Oct 19, 7:53am
Market sentiment a bit more cautious to start the week. Trading activity light with some international holidays. Partial reversal of last week's move up with bond yields, NZD, AUD all lower
US-China agree ‘mini’ trade deal – China buys farm goods, US suspends October tariffs. Brexit optimism continues as EU and UK “intensify” negotiations over weekend – GBP +1.8%. Equities and bond yields head higher, USD weaker
14th Oct 19, 7:55am
US-China agree ‘mini’ trade deal – China buys farm goods, US suspends October tariffs. Brexit optimism continues as EU and UK “intensify” negotiations over weekend – GBP +1.8%. Equities and bond yields head higher, USD weaker
Very weak ISM non-manufacturing survey triggers large decline in US rates, fall in USD. Equities plunge, then recover sharply on Fed rate cut expectations. NZD and AUD outperform as risk appetite turns positive
4th Oct 19, 7:57am
Very weak ISM non-manufacturing survey triggers large decline in US rates, fall in USD. Equities plunge, then recover sharply on Fed rate cut expectations. NZD and AUD outperform as risk appetite turns positive
Risk-off market moves: equities and bond yields fall sharply again. NZD outperforms, likely on short-covering. NZ rates make new all-time lows as market starts pricing a chance of -50 bp RBNZ November cut
3rd Oct 19, 8:02am
Risk-off market moves: equities and bond yields fall sharply again. NZD outperforms, likely on short-covering. NZ rates make new all-time lows as market starts pricing a chance of -50 bp RBNZ November cut
US rates, equities, USD fall sharply after a very weak ISM manufacturing survey. AUD weakens after RBA cuts again. NZ OCR rate cut expectations rise after another dire NZ business confidence survey
2nd Oct 19, 7:56am
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US rates, equities, USD fall sharply after a very weak ISM manufacturing survey. AUD weakens after RBA cuts again. NZ OCR rate cut expectations rise after another dire NZ business confidence survey
Equity markets end September on positive note, brushing off reports of US restrictions on Chinese investments. USD strengthens again. NZD falls to fresh four year low after another miserable ANZ business survey
1st Oct 19, 7:56am
Equity markets end September on positive note, brushing off reports of US restrictions on Chinese investments. USD strengthens again. NZD falls to fresh four year low after another miserable ANZ business survey
Equities fall after reports that US had discussed restrictions on US investments in Chinese companies. Yuan falls, but only minor impact on NZD and AUD. Big week ahead: RBA meeting, Chinese PMIs, ISMs, payrolls, QSBO
30th Sep 19, 8:11am
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Equities fall after reports that US had discussed restrictions on US investments in Chinese companies. Yuan falls, but only minor impact on NZD and AUD. Big week ahead: RBA meeting, Chinese PMIs, ISMs, payrolls, QSBO
The ECB cuts rates, resumes QE. The EUR and German bond yields initially fell then moved higher. Market sentiment boosted by positive trade talk news giving both equity markets and the CNY a boost. NZD lower. The global bond sell-off extends
13th Sep 19, 7:54am
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The ECB cuts rates, resumes QE. The EUR and German bond yields initially fell then moved higher. Market sentiment boosted by positive trade talk news giving both equity markets and the CNY a boost. NZD lower. The global bond sell-off extends
The USD strengthens as markets await an ECB decision with new easing measures expected. Equity markets up in anticipation. Global bond yields stable. NZD stable
12th Sep 19, 8:00am
The USD strengthens as markets await an ECB decision with new easing measures expected. Equity markets up in anticipation. Global bond yields stable. NZD stable
NZD unchanged as global bond yields rise again on ECB news. Reports that China had offered to buy more US agricultural goods ahead of the October trade talks also supported rates
11th Sep 19, 8:16am
NZD unchanged as global bond yields rise again on ECB news. Reports that China had offered to buy more US agricultural goods ahead of the October trade talks also supported rates
Markets cautiously optimistic despite the US payrolls weaker than expected. Global equities and US Treasury yields consolidated. The NZD up. NZ rates up sharply across the curve
9th Sep 19, 7:53am
Markets cautiously optimistic despite the US payrolls weaker than expected. Global equities and US Treasury yields consolidated. The NZD up. NZ rates up sharply across the curve
Markets read positive signals from what China is implying rather than saying. Sentiment improves. Safe haven currencies underperform, as does the NZD on weak local data
30th Aug 19, 8:04am
Markets read positive signals from what China is implying rather than saying. Sentiment improves. Safe haven currencies underperform, as does the NZD on weak local data
Global rates have continued to grind lower on growing risk fears. British politics grabs headlines. NZD sinks lower. Eyes on local business confidence survey
29th Aug 19, 7:49am
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Global rates have continued to grind lower on growing risk fears. British politics grabs headlines. NZD sinks lower. Eyes on local business confidence survey
China ignores US trade talks claim. US Treasury yield curve inversions deepen. Progress in Italian political talks. Brexit optimism. NZD falls in risk-off mood. RBA sees lower rates
28th Aug 19, 8:01am
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China ignores US trade talks claim. US Treasury yield curve inversions deepen. Progress in Italian political talks. Brexit optimism. NZD falls in risk-off mood. RBA sees lower rates
Equity markets take Trump deescalation at face-value. Safe haven currencies give back some recent gains. Commodity currencies outperform. RBA confirms rate cut was part of currency defense
27th Aug 19, 8:28am
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Equity markets take Trump deescalation at face-value. Safe haven currencies give back some recent gains. Commodity currencies outperform. RBA confirms rate cut was part of currency defense
Furious trade war actions overshadow Powell at Jackson Hole although he takes friendly fire too. Markets tumble. NZD holds up reasonably well on the sidelines. Orr 'waiting & watching' for now
26th Aug 19, 7:42am
Furious trade war actions overshadow Powell at Jackson Hole although he takes friendly fire too. Markets tumble. NZD holds up reasonably well on the sidelines. Orr 'waiting & watching' for now
Equities, long-end bond yields rise after reports Germany considering relaxing fiscal rules. NZD weighed down by a weak PMI. Powell’s Jackson Hole address the highlight this week
19th Aug 19, 7:47am
Equities, long-end bond yields rise after reports Germany considering relaxing fiscal rules. NZD weighed down by a weak PMI. Powell’s Jackson Hole address the highlight this week
Local currencies fare relatively well as the bond yield dives gather pace. ECB policy makers primed for more QE. Equities whipsawed. Brexit gets even messier. Markets see further RBNZ cuts
16th Aug 19, 7:56am
Local currencies fare relatively well as the bond yield dives gather pace. ECB policy makers primed for more QE. Equities whipsawed. Brexit gets even messier. Markets see further RBNZ cuts
Chinese data very weak; German GDP contracts; Government bond yields have another massive move lower; AUD and NZD follow China lower
15th Aug 19, 7:54am
Chinese data very weak; German GDP contracts; Government bond yields have another massive move lower; AUD and NZD follow China lower
US to delay latest tariffs on some consumer goods, equities rally and AUD and CNY gain. NZD separates from its correlation to the yuan. Eyes on China, Australian and EU data
14th Aug 19, 7:49am
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US to delay latest tariffs on some consumer goods, equities rally and AUD and CNY gain. NZD separates from its correlation to the yuan. Eyes on China, Australian and EU data