Roger J Kerr

Roger J Kerr says when there is a decisive break to the downside below 84 USc it will trigger a whole series of stop-loss NZD sell orders as carry-trade investors exit

Roger J Kerr says when there is a decisive break to the downside below 84 USc it will trigger a whole series of stop-loss NZD sell orders as carry-trade investors exit

Roger J Kerr looks at the likelihood the risk premium for New Zealand debt could change if we get either a change of Government or a different set of coalition partners

Roger J Kerr looks at the likelihood the risk premium for New Zealand debt could change if we get either a change of Government or a different set of coalition partners

Roger J Kerr says investors will soon get the idea that the once attractive yield return is not enough to outweigh the risk of currency depreciation

Roger J Kerr says investors will soon get the idea that the once attractive yield return is not enough to outweigh the risk of currency depreciation

Roger J Kerr says the next push upwards in US yields will be the real deal as bond investors seek better real returns

Roger J Kerr says the next push upwards in US yields will be the real deal as bond investors seek better real returns

Roger J Kerr says because of hedging, the NZD can depreciate significantly over the next 6-12 months and the impact on inflation will be muted

Roger J Kerr says because of hedging, the NZD can depreciate significantly over the next 6-12 months and the impact on inflation will be muted

Roger J Kerr says confidence levels remaining high is understandable, however not that sensible. But he also sees an 'unexpected' opportunity to fix interest rates long-term

Roger J Kerr says confidence levels remaining high is understandable, however not that sensible. But he also sees an 'unexpected' opportunity to fix interest rates long-term

Roger J Kerr says our 'rock star' economy is suffering from smaller audiences and declining fan interest because our rosy economic picture has wilted

Roger J Kerr says our 'rock star' economy is suffering from smaller audiences and declining fan interest because our rosy economic picture has wilted

Roger J Kerr sees six reasons consumer demand, labour market conditions and supply-side inflation pressures should be seen by the RBNZ as more important than high house prices

Roger J Kerr sees six reasons consumer demand, labour market conditions and supply-side inflation pressures should be seen by the RBNZ as more important than high house prices

Roger J Kerr says the 'stark reality' is the strong NZ dollar is causing weaker economic fundamentals which are about to hit the economy

Roger J Kerr says the 'stark reality' is the strong NZ dollar is causing weaker economic fundamentals which are about to hit the economy

Roger J Kerr says migration trends have been misinterpreted and housing activity levels are moderating; prices follow the activity levels. He doubts that inflation risks have increased

Roger J Kerr says migration trends have been misinterpreted and housing activity levels are moderating; prices follow the activity levels. He doubts that inflation risks have increased

Roger J Kerr says lower commodity prices, a slowing housing market, and better US prospects should have the RBNZ aggressively talking down the NZD

Roger J Kerr says lower commodity prices, a slowing housing market, and better US prospects should have the RBNZ aggressively talking down the NZD

Roger J Kerr points to seven things that just do not add up, seemingly showing that markets seem unable to price risk properly

Roger J Kerr points to seven things that just do not add up, seemingly showing that markets seem unable to price risk properly

Roger J Kerr is frustrated the kiwi dollar remains so high for exporters, especially as the RBNZ spurns every opportunity to encourage realignment to more sustainable levels

Roger J Kerr is frustrated the kiwi dollar remains so high for exporters, especially as the RBNZ spurns every opportunity to encourage realignment to more sustainable levels

Roger J Kerr asks whether monetary policy should be tightened when the majority of the inflation pressures are coming from a single source, construction costs

Roger J Kerr asks whether monetary policy should be tightened when the majority of the inflation pressures are coming from a single source, construction costs

Roger J Kerr says the return of the NZD to 80 USc has been postponed in timing by RBNZ policy choices but not fundamentally changed

Roger J Kerr says the return of the NZD to 80 USc has been postponed in timing by RBNZ policy choices but not fundamentally changed

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ has invited global financial markets awash with cash to buy more NZ dollars to gain a higher yield return

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ has invited global financial markets awash with cash to buy more NZ dollars to gain a higher yield return

Roger J Kerr says respite is on the way for exporters; the USD is strengthening and milk powder prices are falling

Roger J Kerr says respite is on the way for exporters; the USD is strengthening and milk powder prices are falling

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ needs to be innovative if it wants to rein in the strong NZ dollar

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ needs to be innovative if it wants to rein in the strong NZ dollar

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ can only retain credibility for its warnings of divergence between dairy prices and the NZD if it acts to get the currency realigned

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ can only retain credibility for its warnings of divergence between dairy prices and the NZD if it acts to get the currency realigned

Roger J Kerr says the low 2/10 differential is just not sustainable in the medium to longer term, presenting options for borrowers with fixed rate swaps maturing over the next 2 years

Roger J Kerr says the low 2/10 differential is just not sustainable in the medium to longer term, presenting options for borrowers with fixed rate swaps maturing over the next 2 years

Roger J Kerr says retreat by the NZD has been due to unwinding of carry trades and NZD/AUD speculative positions

Roger J Kerr says retreat by the NZD has been due to unwinding of carry trades and NZD/AUD speculative positions

Roger J Kerr says lower dairy income and lower growth means that the RBNZ won't be as aggressive with their OCR hikes

Roger J Kerr says lower dairy income and lower growth means that the RBNZ won't be as aggressive with their OCR hikes

Roger J Kerr says the FX markets are waiting to be told that the NZ economic fundamentals have weakened

Roger J Kerr says the FX markets are waiting to be told that the NZ economic fundamentals have weakened

Roger J Kerr says our economy is highly dependent on climate, export prices and currency and therefore has high vulerabilities and economic risk

Roger J Kerr says our economy is highly dependent on climate, export prices and currency and therefore has high vulerabilities and economic risk

Roger J Kerr sees the tide turning in favour of the USD internationally; the local FX market is now expects the RBNZ to revise down their GDP growth and inflation forecasts

Roger J Kerr sees the tide turning in favour of the USD internationally; the local FX market is now expects the RBNZ to revise down their GDP growth and inflation forecasts