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Roger J Kerr

About

Roger J Kerr is Executive Chairman of Barrington Treasury Services NZ Limited. He has written commentaries on the NZ dollar since 1981.

Member for

16 years 7 months

Latest articles

Roger J Kerr asks whether monetary policy should be tightened when the majority of the inflation pressures are coming from a single source, construction costs
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Roger J Kerr asks whether monetary policy should be tightened when the majority of the inflation pressures are coming from a single source, construction costs
Roger J Kerr says the return of the NZD to 80 USc has been postponed in timing by RBNZ policy choices but not fundamentally changed
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Roger J Kerr says the return of the NZD to 80 USc has been postponed in timing by RBNZ policy choices but not fundamentally changed
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ has invited global financial markets awash with cash to buy more NZ dollars to gain a higher yield return
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ has invited global financial markets awash with cash to buy more NZ dollars to gain a higher yield return
Roger J Kerr says respite is on the way for exporters; the USD is strengthening and milk powder prices are falling
Roger J Kerr says respite is on the way for exporters; the USD is strengthening and milk powder prices are falling
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ needs to be innovative if it wants to rein in the strong NZ dollar
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ needs to be innovative if it wants to rein in the strong NZ dollar
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ can only retain credibility for its warnings of divergence between dairy prices and the NZD if it acts to get the currency realigned
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ can only retain credibility for its warnings of divergence between dairy prices and the NZD if it acts to get the currency realigned
Roger J Kerr says the low 2/10 differential is just not sustainable in the medium to longer term, presenting options for borrowers with fixed rate swaps maturing over the next 2 years
Roger J Kerr says the low 2/10 differential is just not sustainable in the medium to longer term, presenting options for borrowers with fixed rate swaps maturing over the next 2 years
Roger J Kerr says retreat by the NZD has been due to unwinding of carry trades and NZD/AUD speculative positions
Roger J Kerr says retreat by the NZD has been due to unwinding of carry trades and NZD/AUD speculative positions
Roger J Kerr says lower dairy income and lower growth means that the RBNZ won't be as aggressive with their OCR hikes
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Roger J Kerr says lower dairy income and lower growth means that the RBNZ won't be as aggressive with their OCR hikes
Roger J Kerr says the FX markets are waiting to be told that the NZ economic fundamentals have weakened
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Roger J Kerr says the FX markets are waiting to be told that the NZ economic fundamentals have weakened
Roger J Kerr says our economy is highly dependent on climate, export prices and currency and therefore has high vulerabilities and economic risk
Roger J Kerr says our economy is highly dependent on climate, export prices and currency and therefore has high vulerabilities and economic risk
Roger J Kerr sees the tide turning in favour of the USD internationally; the local FX market is now expects the RBNZ to revise down their GDP growth and inflation forecasts
Roger J Kerr sees the tide turning in favour of the USD internationally; the local FX market is now expects the RBNZ to revise down their GDP growth and inflation forecasts
Roger J Kerr sees interest rate yield curve steepening giving a good opportunity to fix more debt or extend the maturity on existing fixed rate debt
Roger J Kerr sees interest rate yield curve steepening giving a good opportunity to fix more debt or extend the maturity on existing fixed rate debt
Roger J Kerr says if the markets don't rescue the RBNZ they could surprise by cancelling the June OCR increase. That would get their attention
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Roger J Kerr says if the markets don't rescue the RBNZ they could surprise by cancelling the June OCR increase. That would get their attention
Roger J Kerr sees a market opportunity that should not be missed by borrowers with a high level of swap maturities over the next 12 to 24 months
Roger J Kerr sees a market opportunity that should not be missed by borrowers with a high level of swap maturities over the next 12 to 24 months
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ may consider cancelling OCR increases in June/July if the exchange rate stays high
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ may consider cancelling OCR increases in June/July if the exchange rate stays high
Roger J Kerr sees the golden run ending as the 'upcoming winter months may be somewhat tougher for the economy than most expect'
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Roger J Kerr sees the golden run ending as the 'upcoming winter months may be somewhat tougher for the economy than most expect'
Roger J Kerr says both the upcoming US jobs report and the Aussie budget are likely to be negative for the NZD, reinforcing the drop in milk powder prices
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Roger J Kerr says both the upcoming US jobs report and the Aussie budget are likely to be negative for the NZD, reinforcing the drop in milk powder prices
Roger J Kerr advises the RBNZ to select their words much more carefully this time than they did in March as the currency needs to follow dairy prices down
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Roger J Kerr advises the RBNZ to select their words much more carefully this time than they did in March as the currency needs to follow dairy prices down
Roger J Kerr reminds us that the demand to invest into NZ’s higher yields dissipates quickly if the currency ceases to appreciate and starts to depreciate
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Roger J Kerr reminds us that the demand to invest into NZ’s higher yields dissipates quickly if the currency ceases to appreciate and starts to depreciate
Roger J Kerr warns that interest rate increases could be a lot sooner and more severe if the NZ dollar falls sharply
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Roger J Kerr warns that interest rate increases could be a lot sooner and more severe if the NZ dollar falls sharply
Roger J Kerr says a surprise 'no change' OCR decision would be much more effective to pull the NZ dollar down than jawboning
Roger J Kerr says a surprise 'no change' OCR decision would be much more effective to pull the NZ dollar down than jawboning
Roger J Kerr wonders who will buy US bonds now that the Fed is cutting back; selling pressure will force yields higher
Roger J Kerr wonders who will buy US bonds now that the Fed is cutting back; selling pressure will force yields higher
Roger J Kerr says the Trade Weighted Index is looking down the barrel of a significant drop
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Roger J Kerr says the Trade Weighted Index is looking down the barrel of a significant drop
Roger J Kerr says because mortgage holders aren't fixing long, OCR increases this year and next will bite the retail and housing sectors earlier and harder
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Roger J Kerr says because mortgage holders aren't fixing long, OCR increases this year and next will bite the retail and housing sectors earlier and harder