About
Roger J Kerr is Executive Chairman of Barrington Treasury Services NZ Limited. He has written commentaries on the NZ dollar since 1981.
Roger J Kerr
Latest articles
Roger J Kerr says it would be more effective for the RBNZ to not increase the OCR in April, surprise the markets causing NZD selling and depreciation
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Roger J Kerr says it would be more effective for the RBNZ to not increase the OCR in April, surprise the markets causing NZD selling and depreciation
Roger J Kerr looks at the official interest rate 'forecasts' by the RBNZ and sees them more as working assumptions, changeable as circumstances alter
Roger J Kerr looks at the official interest rate 'forecasts' by the RBNZ and sees them more as working assumptions, changeable as circumstances alter
Roger J Kerr says that Yellen's timing and the wholemilk powder prices drops are not positive for the Kiwi dollar
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Roger J Kerr says that Yellen's timing and the wholemilk powder prices drops are not positive for the Kiwi dollar
Roger J Kerr says there's a major inflation problem in the NZ economy that the RBNZ seems unable or unwilling to address
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Roger J Kerr says there's a major inflation problem in the NZ economy that the RBNZ seems unable or unwilling to address
Roger J Kerr sees the lack of flow-through since the OCR decision as confirming offshore investors are wary of the high NZD
Roger J Kerr sees the lack of flow-through since the OCR decision as confirming offshore investors are wary of the high NZD
Roger J Kerr looks at the risks or developments that could force the RBNZ to re-assess and adjust the expected pace of OCR increases
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Roger J Kerr looks at the risks or developments that could force the RBNZ to re-assess and adjust the expected pace of OCR increases
Roger J Kerr expects the long-term resistance for the NZ dollar around US85c to prevail again
Roger J Kerr sees US growth, capacity utilisation and inflation as the main drivers of global interest rate directions and he sees big rises over the next year
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Roger J Kerr sees US growth, capacity utilisation and inflation as the main drivers of global interest rate directions and he sees big rises over the next year
Roger J Kerr says despite the diverging economic paths, the NZD and the AUD will both find their own separate lower levels against the USD
Roger J Kerr says despite the diverging economic paths, the NZD and the AUD will both find their own separate lower levels against the USD
Roger J Kerr sees a lot of interest rate risk being taken with mortgages, which may foreshadow subdued consumer spending over the next two years
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Roger J Kerr sees a lot of interest rate risk being taken with mortgages, which may foreshadow subdued consumer spending over the next two years
Roger J Kerr finds that smaller exporters with NZD/AUD risks manage their financial affairs in a superior manner to the big boys
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Roger J Kerr finds that smaller exporters with NZD/AUD risks manage their financial affairs in a superior manner to the big boys
Roger J Kerr tells Graeme Wheeler to take the slow boat to the normalisation of our short-term interest rates
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Roger J Kerr tells Graeme Wheeler to take the slow boat to the normalisation of our short-term interest rates
Roger J Kerr reminds us that our structural current account deficit requires NZ to be liked by foreign investors; he warns of consequences from arbitary political change
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Roger J Kerr reminds us that our structural current account deficit requires NZ to be liked by foreign investors; he warns of consequences from arbitary political change
Roger J Kerr looks at why the NZD has not fallen to US$0.80 yet and what is ahead
Roger J Kerr looks at the underlying reasons long term base rates and related spreads are set to increase
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Roger J Kerr looks at the underlying reasons long term base rates and related spreads are set to increase
Roger J Kerr worries that inflation risks loom large if our exchange rate falls, exposing us to unpleasant consequences
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Roger J Kerr worries that inflation risks loom large if our exchange rate falls, exposing us to unpleasant consequences
Roger J Kerr looks at how Canada's currency has fared recently, and finds senarios that could see the NZD 'suffer' similarly. Your view?
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Roger J Kerr looks at how Canada's currency has fared recently, and finds senarios that could see the NZD 'suffer' similarly. Your view?
Roger J Kerr says because the exchange rate plays a massive role in our economy, the RBNZ has only tough choices as markets expect OCR rises this year
Roger J Kerr says because the exchange rate plays a massive role in our economy, the RBNZ has only tough choices as markets expect OCR rises this year
Watch for the NZD to be sold down below 0.8200, probably before the OCR review on Thursday says Roger J Kerr
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Watch for the NZD to be sold down below 0.8200, probably before the OCR review on Thursday says Roger J Kerr
Roger J Kerr says history says the NZD/AUD forays into the 0.9000’s never last long and the two economies eventually re-align
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Roger J Kerr says history says the NZD/AUD forays into the 0.9000’s never last long and the two economies eventually re-align
Roger J Kerr gets specific and looks at what is in store for the NZD in the year ahead
Roger J Kerr says borrowers need to use longer dated swaps to get the positive values to immunise year to year interest costs against adverse market movements
Roger J Kerr says borrowers need to use longer dated swaps to get the positive values to immunise year to year interest costs against adverse market movements
Roger J Kerr says US bond yields could provide a surprise for the New Zealand swap market next year
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Roger J Kerr says US bond yields could provide a surprise for the New Zealand swap market next year
Roger J Kerr wonders if the usual NZ dollar holiday strengthening will happen this summer
Roger J Kerr says short-term interest rates will be increasing sooner and in larger jumps in 2014 if the NZ dollar depreciates
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Roger J Kerr says short-term interest rates will be increasing sooner and in larger jumps in 2014 if the NZ dollar depreciates