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Roger J Kerr

About

Roger J Kerr is Executive Chairman of Barrington Treasury Services NZ Limited. He has written commentaries on the NZ dollar since 1981.

Member for

15 years 4 months

Latest articles

Roger J Kerr says the next push upwards in US yields will be the real deal as bond investors seek better real returns
28th Jul 14, 4:31pm
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Roger J Kerr says the next push upwards in US yields will be the real deal as bond investors seek better real returns
Roger J Kerr says because of hedging, the NZD can depreciate significantly over the next 6-12 months and the impact on inflation will be muted
28th Jul 14, 3:58pm
Roger J Kerr says because of hedging, the NZD can depreciate significantly over the next 6-12 months and the impact on inflation will be muted
Roger J Kerr says confidence levels remaining high is understandable, however not that sensible. But he also sees an 'unexpected' opportunity to fix interest rates long-term
21st Jul 14, 1:37pm
Roger J Kerr says confidence levels remaining high is understandable, however not that sensible. But he also sees an 'unexpected' opportunity to fix interest rates long-term
Roger J Kerr says our 'rock star' economy is suffering from smaller audiences and declining fan interest because our rosy economic picture has wilted
21st Jul 14, 1:20pm
Roger J Kerr says our 'rock star' economy is suffering from smaller audiences and declining fan interest because our rosy economic picture has wilted
Roger J Kerr sees six reasons consumer demand, labour market conditions and supply-side inflation pressures should be seen by the RBNZ as more important than high house prices
14th Jul 14, 1:04pm
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Roger J Kerr sees six reasons consumer demand, labour market conditions and supply-side inflation pressures should be seen by the RBNZ as more important than high house prices
Roger J Kerr says the 'stark reality' is the strong NZ dollar is causing weaker economic fundamentals which are about to hit the economy
14th Jul 14, 9:11am
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Roger J Kerr says the 'stark reality' is the strong NZ dollar is causing weaker economic fundamentals which are about to hit the economy
Roger J Kerr says migration trends have been misinterpreted and housing activity levels are moderating; prices follow the activity levels. He doubts that inflation risks have increased
7th Jul 14, 1:39pm
Roger J Kerr says migration trends have been misinterpreted and housing activity levels are moderating; prices follow the activity levels. He doubts that inflation risks have increased
Roger J Kerr says lower commodity prices, a slowing housing market, and better US prospects should have the RBNZ aggressively talking down the NZD
7th Jul 14, 11:50am
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Roger J Kerr says lower commodity prices, a slowing housing market, and better US prospects should have the RBNZ aggressively talking down the NZD
Roger J Kerr points to seven things that just do not add up, seemingly showing that markets seem unable to price risk properly
30th Jun 14, 10:45am
Roger J Kerr points to seven things that just do not add up, seemingly showing that markets seem unable to price risk properly
Roger J Kerr is frustrated the kiwi dollar remains so high for exporters, especially as the RBNZ spurns every opportunity to encourage realignment to more sustainable levels
30th Jun 14, 8:49am
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Roger J Kerr is frustrated the kiwi dollar remains so high for exporters, especially as the RBNZ spurns every opportunity to encourage realignment to more sustainable levels
Roger J Kerr asks whether monetary policy should be tightened when the majority of the inflation pressures are coming from a single source, construction costs
23rd Jun 14, 11:46am
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Roger J Kerr asks whether monetary policy should be tightened when the majority of the inflation pressures are coming from a single source, construction costs
Roger J Kerr says the return of the NZD to 80 USc has been postponed in timing by RBNZ policy choices but not fundamentally changed
23rd Jun 14, 10:59am
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Roger J Kerr says the return of the NZD to 80 USc has been postponed in timing by RBNZ policy choices but not fundamentally changed
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ has invited global financial markets awash with cash to buy more NZ dollars to gain a higher yield return
16th Jun 14, 2:32pm
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ has invited global financial markets awash with cash to buy more NZ dollars to gain a higher yield return
Roger J Kerr says respite is on the way for exporters; the USD is strengthening and milk powder prices are falling
16th Jun 14, 1:31pm
Roger J Kerr says respite is on the way for exporters; the USD is strengthening and milk powder prices are falling
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ needs to be innovative if it wants to rein in the strong NZ dollar
9th Jun 14, 11:29am
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Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ needs to be innovative if it wants to rein in the strong NZ dollar
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ can only retain credibility for its warnings of divergence between dairy prices and the NZD if it acts to get the currency realigned
9th Jun 14, 11:20am
Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ can only retain credibility for its warnings of divergence between dairy prices and the NZD if it acts to get the currency realigned
Roger J Kerr says the low 2/10 differential is just not sustainable in the medium to longer term, presenting options for borrowers with fixed rate swaps maturing over the next 2 years
4th Jun 14, 9:24am
Roger J Kerr says the low 2/10 differential is just not sustainable in the medium to longer term, presenting options for borrowers with fixed rate swaps maturing over the next 2 years
Roger J Kerr says retreat by the NZD has been due to unwinding of carry trades and NZD/AUD speculative positions
4th Jun 14, 9:03am
Roger J Kerr says retreat by the NZD has been due to unwinding of carry trades and NZD/AUD speculative positions
Roger J Kerr says lower dairy income and lower growth means that the RBNZ won't be as aggressive with their OCR hikes
26th May 14, 3:30pm
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Roger J Kerr says lower dairy income and lower growth means that the RBNZ won't be as aggressive with their OCR hikes
Roger J Kerr says the FX markets are waiting to be told that the NZ economic fundamentals have weakened
26th May 14, 1:36pm
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Roger J Kerr says the FX markets are waiting to be told that the NZ economic fundamentals have weakened
Roger J Kerr says our economy is highly dependent on climate, export prices and currency and therefore has high vulerabilities and economic risk
19th May 14, 3:00pm
Roger J Kerr says our economy is highly dependent on climate, export prices and currency and therefore has high vulerabilities and economic risk
Roger J Kerr sees the tide turning in favour of the USD internationally; the local FX market is now expects the RBNZ to revise down their GDP growth and inflation forecasts
19th May 14, 1:53pm
Roger J Kerr sees the tide turning in favour of the USD internationally; the local FX market is now expects the RBNZ to revise down their GDP growth and inflation forecasts
Roger J Kerr sees interest rate yield curve steepening giving a good opportunity to fix more debt or extend the maturity on existing fixed rate debt
12th May 14, 12:13pm
Roger J Kerr sees interest rate yield curve steepening giving a good opportunity to fix more debt or extend the maturity on existing fixed rate debt
Roger J Kerr says if the markets don't rescue the RBNZ they could surprise by cancelling the June OCR increase. That would get their attention
12th May 14, 11:53am
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Roger J Kerr says if the markets don't rescue the RBNZ they could surprise by cancelling the June OCR increase. That would get their attention
Roger J Kerr sees a market opportunity that should not be missed by borrowers with a high level of swap maturities over the next 12 to 24 months
5th May 14, 9:35am
Roger J Kerr sees a market opportunity that should not be missed by borrowers with a high level of swap maturities over the next 12 to 24 months