A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; no retail rate changes, card spending rises, job ads high, BNZ reports stellar result; Fonterra pushes on with capital restructure, swaps and NZD firmish, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Nothing to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Nothing here either. Update: Heartland Bank has raised its term deposit and PIE rates.

IMPROVING
Stats NZ reported retail card spending for October today, citing a rise from September. Westpac analysts noted: "Retail spending levels rose by 10% in October. That reversed much of the weakness seen in August and September following the dialing up of the Covid Alert Levels. Even so, spending levels remain around 10% below those we saw prior to the Delta outbreak. ... Today’s result was lower than our forecast."

HOLDING UP
New job ad levels are holding up, according to the BNZ-Seek data. Low candidate availability gels with the low jobless rate they say.

DODGY ROAD SIGNALS
Lockdowns are affecting road traffic activity a lot. ANZ has a "truckometer" series as an early indication of national economic activity. But with lockdowns they say: "Differing regional lockdown restrictions mean that the Truckometer indexes are unlikely to be a reliable GDP indicator in the near term." For what it is worth we can note that the Light Traffic Index (for cars) fell -6.4% in October from September, while the Heavy Traffic (for trucks) lifted +1.0.

A "FLEXIBLE SHAREHOLDING STRUCTURE"
Fonterra said today that it is pushing ahead with its capital restructuring. It is feeling defensive. "“We see total New Zealand milk supply as likely to decline, or flat at best. Our share of that decline depends on the actions we take with our capital structure, performance, productivity and sustainability. If we do nothing, we are likely to see around 12-20% decline by 2030 based on the scenarios we have modelled." More here.

TAXPAYER ON THE HOOK
The Government has decided to back the holiday season music festivals against Covid disruptions. They have promised to underwrite up to 90% of the losses on festivals that are cancelled.

STONKING RESULT
BNZ posted a +74% surge in annual profit to $1.3 bln and a record high, as income jumped +14% and expenses tumbled -9%. BNZ is the last of the big Aussie banks to report, and delivered one of the more impressive results. That means the big 4 banks' combined annual profit reached just under $5.5 bln in 2021.

A TIGHTER HUG
ASB has signed on as the anchor tenant in Microsoft’s Azure data centres in New Zealand. Shifting to the cloud is a core part of ASB’s digital transformation ambition and Microsoft has had a decades-long relationship with ASB.

FEELING ALRIGHT, MATE
In Australia, business conditions and confidence rose in October according to the widely-watched NAB survey, as lockdowns came to an end in both NSW and Victoria. Each of the trading conditions, profitability and employment subcomponents contributed to the improvement in conditions, which was driven by gains in NSW. Confidence also rose, and to a six month high.

RAPID REVERSAL
The size of the reversal in Chinese steel production is becoming apparent, and it is impressive - in a car-crash sort of way. The iron ore price has fallen more than -60% since its peak in May.

LOCAL PANDEMIC UPDATE
In Australia Delta cases in Victoria have leveled out at the 1069 cases reported there today. There are now 15,607 active cases in the state and there were another 10 deaths yesterday. In NSW there were another 223 new community cases reported today with 2,817 active locally acquired cases, and they had another 4 deaths yesterday. Queensland is reporting no new cases. The ACT has 18 new cases. Overall in Australia, just under 81% of eligible Aussies are fully vaccinated, plus 8% have now had one shot so far. In contrast, there were three new cases again in New Zealand at the border, and 125 new community cases. Now 89.3% of Kiwis nationally aged 12+ have had at least one vaccination, while the Australian rate is now at 89.4% of all aged 16+.

GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trading, gold is at US$1824/oz and up +US$8 from this time yesterday. It is similar to the closing New York price and above the earlier London fix.

EQUITIES UNINSPIRING
The S&P500 ended its Monday session just in plus territory (+0.1%) in an unimpressive session. The NZX50 is similarly flat near the end of its session here today. The ASX200 is singing the same flat tune in early afternoon trade. In Tokyo is up a minor +0.1% in late morning trade. Hong Kong is up +0.4% in their early trade, which Shanghai's gain is very minor (+0.1%).

SWAP & BONDS RATES RISE
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are probably firmish. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 0.82%.The Australian Govt ten year benchmark rate is now at 1.79% and up a minor +1 bp. The China Govt 10yr is now at 2.93% and up +2 bps. The New Zealand Govt 10 year rate is now at 2.55%, up +3 bps and still above the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.53% (+4 bp). The US Govt ten year is up +2 bps from this time yesterday to just on 1.49%.

NZ DOLLAR FIRM
The Kiwi dollar is now at 71.5 and and firmer than this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +½c at 96.7 AUc. Against the euro we are firm at 61.8 euro cents. The TWI-5 is now at 75.3 and close to a four year high.

Appreciate this coverage? Support us in lockdown and go ad-free. Find out how.

BITCOIN HIGHER AGAIN
The bitcoin price is now at US$67,542 and a +3.6% rise since this time yesterday - and another record high. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.1%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep ahead of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».