A review of things you need to know before you go home on Wednesday; dairy prices rise, house prices waver, retail sales firm, UST10yr yield jumps, ANZ goes hawkish, swaps unchanged, NZD holds & more

They are not accepting that the previous loose or non-existent standards were a problem.

Of course they're not. Could you imagine the banks admitting that creating credit to bid up house prices is a 'problem' when you have the privilege to do what they do and with the understanding that the taxpayer is ultimately on the hook if you fk up? The sheeple don't really see it as a problem either because they don't really understand how it works. 

ANZ now forecast that there will be a 3.00% OCR top in early 2023. This is almost in synch with what the current fixed rates markets are showing. 

I now personally think that the OCR peak will actually be above that, possibly closer to 4% than 3%, also considering what is happening overseas. Be ready for much higher mortgage rates. 

The Financial Services Federation, "the industry body for responsible non-bank lenders", has written an open letter asking the Government to back off its CCCFA responsible lending requirements. They don't want to take the hit to their business and see a credit crunch being triggered by these new regulations

I thought the non bank lenders were saving the day already and were some how not impacted by CCCFA? Isn't that what the head of Squirrel was saying and claiming that they were going to win all the business... 

ANZ has raised its view of where the OCR will end up in this rising cycle. It had picked a 2.00% top. Now it says it will be a 3.00% top in early 2023.

Basically, the Chinese strongman warned Western leaders not to count their inflationary/recovery chickens before they hatch. As in 2021, Xi in 2022 warns that not all is aligned right for those things – only beginning with China.



As if to emphasize the message, Ning Jizhe, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics’ current director, admitted to reporters the state of the diseased cat. In Ning’s press conference announcing the latest batch of economic data from the world’s second largest economy, the Big Three (IP, FAI, and ugly retail sales) to go along with Q4 2021 GDP, the typical Communist platitudes which he dispatched with the required emphasis suddenly dissipated in his summary in favor of Xi-like clarity:

At the same time, we must be soberly aware that the current downward pressure on my country’s economy is still relatively large…

You can only spin so much before such context of a wingless and ailing tiger cuts straight through such semantic reflexiveness. Link

Can someone explain me why the NZD is still approximately where it was 2 years ago relative to other major currency like Euro, But has lost around 50% for its purchasing power on the local scene ?

The say "the changes will not just affect housing lending but lending for essential items like motor vehicles and household appliances." They are framing their objection as one that will hurt consumer access to goods. They are not accepting that the previous loose or non-existent standards were a problem.

FSF is right. The Labour government hasn't proved that the current system is a generating wide spread problem in the consumer credit space. Kris Faafoi could had updated the bill to restrict it to his own community before passing it if he sees that as a problem.

As expected and proven by history, socialist ideologies eventually run any country's economy into the ground.

What's next to dig deeper? How about everyone pay exactly the same amount of tax?

The NZ borders are about to be fully closed again and the 30 April ‘reopening/self-isolating” is on ice now.  

Welcome to to the ongoing fully sealed off NZ.  

So the 2-Year UST Yield has been pounding higher and is now over 1%. But the CPI print is around 7%.

Is a little over 1% an appropriate 2-Year UST Yield?

Big jump in swap rates today, with the 2y up 16bps.

56 new cases of Covid at the border today.  What happened to the requirement to have a negative test result before getting on a plane???  I can understand a few developing Omicron variant after their pre-departure test but these numbers are getting beyond belief. Bloomfield, please explain!

Even of they where to half in value, they'd only be back where they where a couple of years ago. For New Zealand households that went "all in" on property it would be a chastening experience.

“In NSW, there were 32,297 new community cases reported yesterday, a small rise, now with 302,453 active locally-acquired cases (and undoubtedly an undercount), and 32 more deaths.”

The situation in Victoria & NSW should be a big warning to NZ. 

The media in NZ has not held the government to account for a lack of prepardness to get our hospital capacity up to Australian standards.  

Why isn’t the number of spare hospital beds at each hospital published weekly?

Why isn’t the increase in capacity of hospital beds published weekly?

Similarly why isn’t the number MIQ total spare beds & the increase in capacity of MIQ beds published weekly?

If the total number of spare beds in hospitals & MIQ are published regularly, as well as the increases in capacity, NZ can judge how effective this government is in preparing for the inevitable onslaught of Omicron over the next 12 months.