Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
TSB has raised its 9 month TD rate by +35 bps to 2.00% today.
FEWER SOLD, BUT AT HIGHER PRICES
Farms and lifestyle block sales halved in Q4 2021 compared to the same period a year earlier. But despite that, prices remained buoyant. Dairy farm prices rose a remarkable 37% on a $/ha basis although 2020 was low. Compared with December 2019, they are up +19% on a $/ha basis.
LEARNING TO AVOID SKY-HIGH INTEREST
Credit cards were used +2.5% more (in value terms) in December than a year ago, so after inflation that is not much of a change in 'real' terms, maybe even a slip. But users are not holding as much credit card debt, with the December balances down -6.7% from the same month a year ago and -18% lower than two years ago. There is no evidence of credit stress in these latest numbers. And in fact, the proportion of credit card debt that incurs interest has never been lower, now down under 54% of all personal balances. It was 56% a year ago, 59% two years ago and 68% ten years ago (and just because we have it, twenty years ago 73% of all credit card debt incurred interest).
LOOKING AHEAD
Tomorrow we get the New Zealand inflation result for the December quarter and it will be closely followed. Q3-2021 reported the number as +4.9%. Analysts' expectations range up to +6%, but the consensus is 5.7%. Much of that is now priced in, but an above-expectation result could bring volatility to financial markets. The 'end game' is the RBNZ rate review on February 23, and in between we will get the labour market stats for December which will also be closely watched on February 2. Westpac reckons the Q3 jobless rate of 3.4% will likely come in at 3.5%. Of course there is another dairy auction next week, and the RBA does its thing next Tuesday.
BROWN REPLACES McLEOD
SBS Bank has advised that lawyer and Southlander Sarah Brown has been appointed to the bank’s Board of Directors. She replaces long serving director Anne McLeod.
LOCAL PANDEMIC UPDATE
In NSW, there were 21,030 new community cases reported yesterday, another increase from the prior day, now with 209,326 active locally-acquired cases, and 29 daily deaths again. There are now 2,943 in hospital there and a record high. In Victoria they reported 13,507 more new infections yesterday. There are now 183,154 active cases in that state - and there were 34 more deaths there. Queensland is reporting 13,551 new cases (now more than Victoria) and 9 more deaths. In South Australia, new cases have slipped to 1869 yesterday with 5 more deaths. The ACT has 986 new cases and two deaths, and Tasmania 643 new cases. Overall in Australia, about 50,000 new cases have been reported so far although not all counts are in yet. In New Zealand, there were 36 cases stopped at the border, plus 23 new cases in the community. There are 481 active cases in isolation, 56 of them with Omicron and of those 44 in one extended family event. For more on the Omicron plan from here, see this.
GOLD FIRMER
In early Asian trading, gold is at US$1848 and up +US$8 from this time yesterday.
EQUITIES MIXED
Wall Street sank today ending down -1.2% and no last-minute recovery this time - although it was down -2.7% just after its open. After yesterday's large retreat, Tokyo which is down another -0.6% in morning trade. Hong Kong is up +0.4% in early trade and Shanghai is up +0.7% in their early trade. The ASX200 is not trading because it is a public holiday (Australia Day), while the NZX50 is up +0.2% in late afternoon trade.
SWAPS STABLE
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to be slightly firmer. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 1.08%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is little-changed at 1.95%. The China Govt 10yr is down -1 bp at 2.69% and its lowest level since May 2020. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 2.60% (up +5 bps) and back above the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.59% (also up +5 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.78% and up +1 bps although it has been volatile in between.
NZ DOLLAR STILL SOFT
The Kiwi dollar has stayed down and is now just a tad lower at 66.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are softish at 93.4 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 59.1 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now just over 71.3 and marginally lower.
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BITCOIN HOLDS
Bitcoin has held on to yesterday's recovery is now at US$36,638 and is up another +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.5%.
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50 Comments
It is vague and complex because none of the strategies sold to the public are actual road maps.
From a numbering system to a traffic lights system and then back to a numbering system; have people not realised that the underlying tactic is prolongation (aka. they got no real solutions)?
No strategies presented so far has a column, a phase number or any other indicator that says, "business as usual" and it has been almost 2 years.
We need a Carl Icahn to reorganise how things work in the Beehive.
Might get tricky if you need to take sick leave?
If your employer asks why you've been off and wants to see a dr's cert?
But yeah, I generally agree, gumint best kept out of it imo.
My employer has mandated that to go into the office we need to be fully up to date with vax, vax p/p and negative test at the door before entering.
So I'm wondering if (when...) I get omi-con and have the natural immunity from my current two jabs plus the natural immunity if my employer will accept that over 3 jabs.
Who will carry out the fines they will probably only have time to fine themselves and work colleagues. It will be the end of mandates booster shots and control of people if you don’t want to catch it don’t go out. Most of the people who have got omicron I know in UK are double jabbed and had booster it’s not stopping them catching virus fortunately wherever they are in vax process all have been fine.
It is confusing as government itself is confused. They themselves are not sure anymore. From their media briefing what I understood was that they will support when in level one and level two. Once it reaches level three, than everyone is on their own except few vulnerable, whom they want to please - vote bank politics.
Either you trust vaccination and booster or you don't and if not than why spending money on vaccination.
Be clear Jacinda Arden
Bikies will do unto omicron as they did unto delta. Who is going to stop them. The government has no idea of reality. Nobody is going to volunteer to hamstring their freedom & income unless simply, they are too crook to move. Government has no credibility. Couldn’t even think to secure RATs in time, now have to pinch them off private industry. Pharmacies are still completely confused about how they are to conduct testing. This is exactly what I predicted. Nationwide red, a lockdown when you are not having a lockdown, border closed indefinitely, still to come regional travel restrictions all while the stable door is a swinging, the horse long gone.
Correct, and if there's more than two people in the household it could be even longer.
Basically someone who doesn't catch it needs to isolate 24 days from when the most recent person in the household tested positive.
So basically, if it gets into your household, fastest way out of isolation is to catch it asap!
Meanwhile another good business closed down by govt policies.
https://www.thedailyexaminer.co.nz/public-statement-from-lone-star-new-…
Pete is over 65
Seventy-five percent of people who have died of the virus in the United States — or about 600,000 of the nearly 800,000 who have perished so far — have been 65 or older. One in 100 older Americans has died from the virus. For people younger than 65, that ratio is closer to 1 in 1,400.
So 2 people over 65 is 1 in 50.
And you're claiming what, 850 people total have died in the US as a consequence of contracting covid?
UPDATE (Dec. 15, 2021): Months after the original publication of this fact check, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released 2020 data that showed the U.S. recorded about 3,358,814 deaths over the course of the year. That was a 15.9% increase in the age-adjusted death rate from 2019 (when the agency documented 2,854,838 total deaths), and additional evidence to debunk the meme’s assertion.
Among all fatalities in 2020, the latest data showed 337,883 people had tested positive for COVID-19 —making the disease the third leading underlying cause of death after heart disease and cancer.
Sounds like a lot more than 900 or so people died in 2020 compared to 2019.
Highest ever daily inflow into GLD ETF this week. Price has hardly moved.
SPDR Gold Shares, the largest bullion-backed exchange-traded fund, on Friday recorded its biggest net inflow in dollar terms since listing in 2004 -- worth $1.63 billion. Changes in ETF holdings are monitored as a gauge of investor interest in longer-term bets on gold. Holdings declined in 2021, a lackluster year for gold prices.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-24/world-s-top-gold-etf…
Government is silent on border reopening and surprisingly no media person ask them as many whose loved one are stuck overseas and want to return are unable and government is giving no clarity.
Jenee should ask in next briefing as what are the plans - straight answere as nation wants clarity and not political manipulation of word.
In February, when most have got their booster ( not to forget 93% population is fully vaccinated - highest in the world), what are they planning.
Checking patience of it's citizen is not good. Have been supported so far in silence by all - bend stick to a level that it does not break.
Taim , stick has been broken for some of kiwis locked out . We had to go to Perth last March , family emergency .
My 86 year old Mother ( in nz )has had 3 hip surgeries cancelled over the last 2 years . All so cataracts the same .
ln Wheel chair last 6 months , now having to go into rest home..dont wont sympathy , just one of 1000s of storys
out there , from us stateless kiwis , team of 1 mil....just not Jacindas team
Not good. Even those with a state are taking hits. Heard from someone recently that their sister in the UK died of breast cancer because they kept putting off her treatment due to COVID overload. Apparently they recorded her death as COVID (which she didn't have) because plague conditions were the underlying cause.
A friend's father passed away and he had two choice : Attend funeral and leave the job ( only earning member with wife and small kid) or Keepthejob to support his family, who are alive and forget about dead father- not to attend.
Can understand the pain but hard to explain to politicians. This choice has been forced by Jacinda Arden either open the border like rest of the world or if want MIQ bring better system and number of rooms. Should remember that anyone travelling now is not for fun but family emergencies.
Also charging $250 for test, required before travel is too much, must be highest in the world. A family of four, if have to go to Australia will have to chip in $1000 for just one test - This is exploitation.
We actually needed "Intelligent" people to "Plan" our future so that we understand what a liability we have had to suffer over the past few years.
A false narrative and a Band of Debt, before dishonour, does not a "financial wonder make" Tweeking and increasing our debt is not cost effective.
Capitalism is unbelievable...with this Mob.
I still say, debt is not money...neither is print more and be damned. Spendthifts are the problem. Sadly, we employ em.
Here is the simple version.
We are going to try and suppress it for a while so people can get booster and children can get vaccinated.
But after a week or so it will be a raging fire so we’ll use rapid antigen testing to keep the workforce available for essential services.
We need to keep cases down to protect the health system so if things get out of hand we might need further measures.
25'000 property listings on Trademe already. The panic selling is real. Some prices are so unrealistic its almost comical.
Bought 10th Feb 2020 for $235k
Now on Trademe as SMART BUYING, KEENLY PRICED, enquiries over $495k
The problem is their neighbours sold high so why shouldn't they? The parties over, that's why!
And people think a 50% retrace is impossible?
https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/property/residential/sale/manawatu-whanganu…
https://homes.co.nz/address/marton/marton/19-vera-street/nnwLy?searchLo…
Yes I noticed this over 25000 and 9800 in Auckland going up quickly. People who buy now or in next couple of months would be crazy or desperate to move.As more and more come on market the prices will crumble just wait a few months rates will be higher but prices down so much it will be like time warp getting them at 2018 prices some areas back to 2016.
"minor expenses that you could give up if you really had to anyway. "
The thing is they are not one-off minor expenses. They are regular (habitual) expenses. I have posted about the difference between a treat and a habit before, on this site and others. But as some examples:
- Brunch at a cafe once every 3-6 months is a minor expense. Brunch every 2nd sunday is a habit.
- After-work drinks every Friday is a habit. Golden Arches every sat morning to "recover" is a habit.
- A coffee a day is a habit.
- Pizza on payday is a habit.
- Movies on the first tuesday of the month is a habit.
- That reward (clothes/shoes/beautician/restaurant/etc...) that you buy each weekend as a "treat" for a tough work week, is a habit.
- That trip to the hairdressers/barbers every 4 weeks is a habit.
Most people can give up a minor expense. However it takes a surprising amount of willpower and dedication to break a habit.
Rob,Smart investors would have already sold and will wait till it hits a place where just cannot help themselves. But a lot of the investors on this website were still recommending people buy in November and December no sure if smart investors use this website or are just playing simply.
Your numbers appear meaningless. How many property listings were there a years ago, two years ago ? I know what the Tauranga numbers were 2 years ago and they are still half of what they were then and why would it be any different down here to anywhere else ? How do you not know there was not 50,000 properties for sale 2 years ago ? Your going to be another of the departed when prices continue to rise, all logic has gone from the housing market from the very start of Covid.
I work with a guy like him. House prices will go up 10% in the next 12 months apparently because of demand. I’m not sure if it’s blinkered naivety or they need to take the red pill or something. It’s the end of the cycle, it’s time to tighten the belt and hope the low isn’t very low. All the money that has been sloshing around from the careless printing has been invested and without more printing… the tide recedes. It’s pretty basic and fundamental, my 9 year old has a better handle on it than most. (Must take after his mum :-))
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