Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB have cut their two year rate to 3.99%, a -31 bps reduction. More here.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Westpac have raised a range of term deposit rates by about +20 bps.
NEW RECORD HIGH
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index climbed +1% in January from December to hit a new record high. Dairy and a strong lift in aluminium prices pushed the index up. The overall index is now just a whisker shy of +20% gain for the year in international price terms, up more than +26% in NZD terms.
SALES DOWN, LISTINGS UP
There were big drops in dominant Auckland realtor Barfoot & Thompson's average and median prices at the start of the year - and sales numbers were also sharply lower (-26% from year ago levels although 2020 sales activity was unusually high). Their median selling price was down -$55,000 in January from December. They now have 3827 listings, up +5% from the end of December and up +22% from a year ago
FEWER NEW CAR SALES IN JANUARY
New car sales fell almost -8% in January from the same month a year ago. But sales of new commercial vehicles rose more than +9% on the same basis. There were 470 BEVs, 208 PHEVs and 828 hybrid vehicles registered in January. This represented 11.2% of the fleet with some form of electrification in their drivetrain - and little different to the prior month. Tight supply issues might have been a reason. But the industry also noted that "tighter lending restrictions for private purchases" might have been too. Going forward, the much lower exchange rate will be driving up prices. The FX effect alone over the year is greater than 6% more expensive. More here.
MORE USED IMPORT SALES IN JANUARY
Imported car sales rose +5.4% in January from the same month a year ago, so those "tighter lending conditions" may not have hurt this sector as much (?) Again, the FX effect will impact these sales going forward too, but might give them an advantage over the new-car options.
HOW & WHEN THE BORDER REOPENS
The Government has released details of the dates for the phased reopening of the border. It will start gradually from February 27 to New Zealanders and migrants ahead of tourists. Full details here.
DEFERRAL REBOUNDS
The Kiwibank tracking of their electronic card spend data rebounded in the final quarter of 2021, rising 13%. The rise in spend was supported by Auckland moving out of a 90-day (level 4 and level 3) lockdown in mid-November. They say this data again confirms that demand is not destroyed by lockdowns, but is instead deferred.
"ANY ADVANCE ON ..."
NZX dairy analysts raised their estimate of the 2021/22 farm gate milk price to 9.37/kgMS, even higher than yesterday's ANZ forecast.
LOWER YIELDS
Two $100 tranches of NZ Govt Bonds were tendered today. Both brought slightly lower yields. The April 2027 $100 mln attracted $360 mln in bids from 26 bidders. Eleven won something averaging 2.34% and down from 2.44% six weeks ago. The $100 mln May 2051 tender attracted 21 bidders, but only 2 won anything. They won at a yield of 2.87%, down from 2.99% two weeks ago.
LOCAL PANDEMIC UPDATE
In NSW, there has been a drop to 12,632 new community cases reported yesterday, now with 110,892 active locally-acquired cases, but a rise to 38 daily deaths. There are now 2,578 in hospital there, off their high. In Victoria they reported 12,157 more new infections yesterday. There are now 73,886 active cases in that state - and there were 34 more deaths there. Queensland is reporting 8,648 new cases and 9 more deaths. In South Australia, new cases have slipped to 1583 yesterday and one death. The ACT has 529 new cases, and Tasmania 656 new cases and 1 death. Overall in Australia, about 36,000 new cases have been reported so far although not all counts are in yet. In New Zealand, there were 44 cases stopped at the border, plus 147 new cases reported in the community.
GOLD UP AGAIN
In early Asian trading, gold is at US$1806 and up +US$5 from this time yesterday.
EQUITIES MIXED
In New York, the S&P500 closed up another +0.9% after generally good earnings results (except Facebook/Meta's horror result). Tokyo has opened today down -0.9% after a string of strong rises. And recall that Hong Kong and Shanghai are both closed for Chinese New Year. The ASX200 is giving up some ground today, down -0.4% in early afternoon trade. The NZX50 is flat in late trade.
SWAPS LOWER ON CONFUSING MOOD
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely lower. The 90 day bank bill rate dropped back -3 bps to 1.14%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is down -7 bps to 1.86%. The China Govt 10yr is still at 2.72%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 2.51% (down -8 bps from this time yesterday) and now below the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.55% (down -3 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.77% and back down -2 bps from this time yesterday, so range trading recently, presumably waiting to see how bad the Omicron-affected US non-farm payrolls report data is this weekend.
NZ DOLLAR TURNS BACK SOFTER
The Kiwi dollar is marginally softer from this time yesterday to 66.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down fractionally at 93 AUc. Against the euro we are soft at 58.7 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now back down at 70.9.
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BITCOIN LOWER
Bitcoin has retreated today and is now at US$36,977 which is down -4.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.9%.
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67 Comments
"FEWER NEW CAR SALES IN JANUARY... the industry also noted that "tighter lending restrictions for private purchases" might have been too. Going forward, the much lower exchange rate will be driving up prices."
This is good news for garages that specialises in servicing WINZ clients. As prices rise, credit tightens and subsidies goes into electric cars, the lower socio will have to ride it out in their old junk and claim more on car emergencies from WINZ.
I won't be surprise there'll be a high growth and expansion in those garage franchises for the next few years.
Aside from all the carry on today from government announcements and flak thereupon from opposition parties, saw that the Associate Minister of Housing Ms Poto Williams saw fit to contemplate the likelihood of a rent freeze to assist keeping the cost of living down while the work of other work on housing is being worked on. Simultaneously a rumour has sprung up in Christchurch that the Three Waters proposal is being abandoned? There is quite a bit of fuss & feathers flying around indeed. Suggests to me our current government is on the hop, losing its grip, fighting rearguard, looking for cover, not so cocky, and generally like landlubbers on a yacht on a sloppy sea.
I shop at Countdown down here in Tauranga. Stopped shopping at Pak n Slave when they stopped selling my milk. Their roast chickens are also way nicer with the new Pita Bread stuffed ones. Their meat otherwise is terrible, I shop at a butcher for that. Basically you cannot get everything from a single supermarket.
Yes the one in the green bag, yes its okay. The Countdown Garlic Pita stuffed one is better but it also comes down to the cooking time and how long its been sitting in the warmer. They can overcook and dry out. I suspect the Countdown Chicken is Inghams. The worst Chicken begins with a T and its totally inedible cold. Varies from Countdown to Countdown the same a a burger does from one Burger King to the next. I should have been a food Critic.
Overall, for quality and experience NW is definitely best, and I go there a fair bit, especially for meat which is much better quality than the other supermarkets.
But we are already ripped off enough in this country as it is, which is why I go to Pak n Save quite a lot too, and by doing so probably save $30-40 pw compared to just going to NW.
Facebook down 23% today.
Paypal down 18% in an hour.
Netflix down 25% not long ago.
All of a sudden Bitcorn doesn't seem unique.
Why would anyone want to work in a supermarket for $20 per hour just to pay $400 for a room per week and $150 for basic food? You will never get a house or any sort of life that way. Join the giant capitalist casino of shares and crypto and you at least have a shot of making it. By making it I don't mean living a flash life, just owing a nice 3 bedroom house and being able to afford a 1kg block of tasty cheese, not much to ask right? And for those who say it all goes down, you can short these assets or play the volatility.
ETS CO2 is where the money is right now and it's up relentlessly despite NZ50 is struggling to breathe- your ultimate hedge against NZ50 and food price inflation!
Let the Wokes pay for being woke.
Nothing like milking Wokes for their ideologies and getting subsidies from them for the food price inflation.
Some of us wokes bought a stack of CO2 funds last year as a hedge against our general disappointment with the emissions trading scheme and the lack of action on the environment. I am actually embarassed about (a) how obvious the explosion in price was (once govt lost control last year); and (b) just how much the price would go up once NZUs became a speculative asset. By my calculations 37 million carbon units (about 1 in 5) are now owned by people who will never use them (non-participants or speculative investors) and those investors have made about $400m on paper in the last two months (a 17% return). Now, to work out when to cash out...
As in throwing a new Merc or Audi on the mortgage is now a no go for many? Probably should have happened some time ago. Wanting to own your own home is understandable and taking on debt to achieve that a necessity, driving around in a new Merc that you can nowhere near afford......not so much!
Border reopening was a bit lame. Not sure why they can’t open it fully, what’s a few more cases of omicron when we will have thousands a day soon anyway. Still another 6 months apparently till full reopen, by then we will have another 2 or 3 variants to lock down for.
And why do Aus get special treatment, they probably have the worst omicron rates in the world!
Yes, let’s wait and see if Labour actually deliver on the border opening dates.
May pay not to add to your horde of AirNZ credits immediately.
Once we get a few 1000 cases, watch the fear machine crank up, and the border open dates get pushed out. Then it’s back to the PM making more announcements about upcoming announcements. Today was just a bit of theatre to let a bit of steam escape from the public unrest.
Talking of crypto, there has just been $500m hack of ETH:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TXjNlJDnLOo&t=1434s
Wormhole protocol was exploited for over 200,000 Ethereum (valued at half a billion dollars) tonight.
Not quite correct.
Ethereum was not hacked, a smart contract on the Solana network was exploited to create over 200,000 Wrapped Eth.
So now the Wrapped Eth on the Solana Network is no longer backed by any Ethereum.
So again, shitty smart contracts, poor engineering and rushed, centralised networks are to blame.
Ergo, Bitcoin not shitcoins.
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