Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB have cut their two year rate to 3.99%, a -31 bps reduction. More here.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Westpac have raised a range of term deposit rates by about +20 bps.
NEW RECORD HIGH
The ANZ World Commodity Price Index climbed +1% in January from December to hit a new record high. Dairy and a strong lift in aluminium prices pushed the index up. The overall index is now just a whisker shy of +20% gain for the year in international price terms, up more than +26% in NZD terms.
SALES DOWN, LISTINGS UP
There were big drops in dominant Auckland realtor Barfoot & Thompson's average and median prices at the start of the year - and sales numbers were also sharply lower (-26% from year ago levels although 2020 sales activity was unusually high). Their median selling price was down -$55,000 in January from December. They now have 3827 listings, up +5% from the end of December and up +22% from a year ago
FEWER NEW CAR SALES IN JANUARY
New car sales fell almost -8% in January from the same month a year ago. But sales of new commercial vehicles rose more than +9% on the same basis. There were 470 BEVs, 208 PHEVs and 828 hybrid vehicles registered in January. This represented 11.2% of the fleet with some form of electrification in their drivetrain - and little different to the prior month. Tight supply issues might have been a reason. But the industry also noted that "tighter lending restrictions for private purchases" might have been too. Going forward, the much lower exchange rate will be driving up prices. The FX effect alone over the year is greater than 6% more expensive. More here.
MORE USED IMPORT SALES IN JANUARY
Imported car sales rose +5.4% in January from the same month a year ago, so those "tighter lending conditions" may not have hurt this sector as much (?) Again, the FX effect will impact these sales going forward too, but might give them an advantage over the new-car options.
HOW & WHEN THE BORDER REOPENS
The Government has released details of the dates for the phased reopening of the border. It will start gradually from February 27 to New Zealanders and migrants ahead of tourists. Full details here.
DEFERRAL REBOUNDS
The Kiwibank tracking of their electronic card spend data rebounded in the final quarter of 2021, rising 13%. The rise in spend was supported by Auckland moving out of a 90-day (level 4 and level 3) lockdown in mid-November. They say this data again confirms that demand is not destroyed by lockdowns, but is instead deferred.
"ANY ADVANCE ON ..."
NZX dairy analysts raised their estimate of the 2021/22 farm gate milk price to 9.37/kgMS, even higher than yesterday's ANZ forecast.
LOWER YIELDS
Two $100 tranches of NZ Govt Bonds were tendered today. Both brought slightly lower yields. The April 2027 $100 mln attracted $360 mln in bids from 26 bidders. Eleven won something averaging 2.34% and down from 2.44% six weeks ago. The $100 mln May 2051 tender attracted 21 bidders, but only 2 won anything. They won at a yield of 2.87%, down from 2.99% two weeks ago.
LOCAL PANDEMIC UPDATE
In NSW, there has been a drop to 12,632 new community cases reported yesterday, now with 110,892 active locally-acquired cases, but a rise to 38 daily deaths. There are now 2,578 in hospital there, off their high. In Victoria they reported 12,157 more new infections yesterday. There are now 73,886 active cases in that state - and there were 34 more deaths there. Queensland is reporting 8,648 new cases and 9 more deaths. In South Australia, new cases have slipped to 1583 yesterday and one death. The ACT has 529 new cases, and Tasmania 656 new cases and 1 death. Overall in Australia, about 36,000 new cases have been reported so far although not all counts are in yet. In New Zealand, there were 44 cases stopped at the border, plus 147 new cases reported in the community.
GOLD UP AGAIN
In early Asian trading, gold is at US$1806 and up +US$5 from this time yesterday.
EQUITIES MIXED
In New York, the S&P500 closed up another +0.9% after generally good earnings results (except Facebook/Meta's horror result). Tokyo has opened today down -0.9% after a string of strong rises. And recall that Hong Kong and Shanghai are both closed for Chinese New Year. The ASX200 is giving up some ground today, down -0.4% in early afternoon trade. The NZX50 is flat in late trade.
SWAPS LOWER ON CONFUSING MOOD
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely lower. The 90 day bank bill rate dropped back -3 bps to 1.14%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is down -7 bps to 1.86%. The China Govt 10yr is still at 2.72%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 2.51% (down -8 bps from this time yesterday) and now below the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.55% (down -3 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.77% and back down -2 bps from this time yesterday, so range trading recently, presumably waiting to see how bad the Omicron-affected US non-farm payrolls report data is this weekend.
NZ DOLLAR TURNS BACK SOFTER
The Kiwi dollar is marginally softer from this time yesterday to 66.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are down fractionally at 93 AUc. Against the euro we are soft at 58.7 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now back down at 70.9.
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BITCOIN LOWER
Bitcoin has retreated today and is now at US$36,977 which is down -4.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.9%.
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
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