A review of things you need to know before you go home on Tuesday; Westpac & others change rates, emigration likely, more corporate bond issuance, good dairy auction expected, swaps slip, NZD up, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Westpac has now raised their carded fixed rate offers by between +10 and +20 bps across the board.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Westpac has also raised TD rate offers by +10 bps for most terms of two years and less  ASB has raised some savings account rates, but only by +5 bps. First Credit Union, and Gold Band Finance have raised term deposit rates by more substantial margins. Xceda Finance (ex Asset Finance) has raised some rates too.

UNCERTAINTY INHIBITS RECOVERY
Employment rose over the whole country in January with the strong outcome raising hopes of rising economic activity in an expanding labour market which should fuel demand. But that data is unlikely to be sustained in February as people self isolate and firms pull back hiring as Omicron spreads across the country. The pervasive mood to self-isolate in the face of Omicron will hurt the recovery. NZIER also warned today that fast-rising uncertainty will hamper the local recovery.

EMIGRATION IMMINENT?
ANZ economists say a significant drain of people out of the country could put pressure on the housing market and have ramifications for RBNZ monetary policy.

DIVESTED BUT STILL CROSS SELLING
Westpac said it had completed the sale of its life insurance unit to Fidelity for $400 mln. The sale involves moving 50 staff and 150,000 customers to Fidelity. Fidelity funded the acquisition by taking on Ngāi Tahu Holdings as a new cornerstone equity investor. They now have a "strategic alliance partner in Westpac".

UP +2.2% IN A YEAR
There are now 4.2 mln people with life insurance in the country, up +92,000 in 2021, according to the industry lobby group the Financial Services Council.

CENSURED
The FMA has has censured CTRL Investments for contravening the conditions of its derivatives issuer licence. CTRL offers trade in contracts for difference. Although it is based here it is beneficially owned by two individuals in London, England via an Isle of Man tax haven.

MORE CORPORATE BONDS
Genesis Energy (GNE, #22) is in the bond market for up to $125 mln of 6-year fixed-rate unsecured, unsubordinated green bonds. They will be priced at a minimum of 4% or 1.05% to 1.20% above the swap rate on Friday, which yesterday was 3.0025%. They are guaranteed under Genesis's negative pledge deed. The funds will be used to to finance or refinance renewable energy assets.

RESHORING
NZ Post has acquired Fliway Group, extending its parcels business into larger items and broadening its logistics and supply chain capability. Fliway is one of the largest fully integrated logistics providers in New Zealand and specialises in the delivery of items that are typically too big to be carried by courier networks but are still transported as individual items rather than in bulk. It is headquartered in Auckland and employs over 400 people. Flyway is currently in logistics hell and unable to meet all its delivery promises. NZ Post acquired Fliway from Yang Kee Group, a Singaporean logistics enterprise who purchased it in 2018 from New Zealand owners.

SCRAP METAL NOW?
There were no coins minted in 2021, according the the latest RBNZ update. And it seem unlikely there ever will be again. There are $20 mln worth of coin "in circulation", a euphemism for "lost in a drawer somewhere".

UKRAINE STRUGGLES TO HOLD ON
Ukraine is buckling as Russia pours more troops and firepower into their invasion.

SMALL AS IT IS, IT IS EXPANDING
Both the official and unofficial PMIs were out for China today, and both recorded minor gains, but sufficient to take them from a stall to a marginal expansion. Their services PMI is little changed too, and still in a tepid expansion.

EYES ON THE GDT
The next Global Dairy Trade auction Wednesday morning is expected to show a strong, positive market shift again, building on the prior three events. The derivatives market is expecting WMP to gain more than 6%.

INVESTORS OUT IN FORCE
In Australia, mortgage lending to investors rose to a record high in January. And at 33% of all new housing lending (except refis) that proportion is back at a four hear high. (The record high was in 2015 when it hit 46%.) Currently New Zealand lending to investors accounts for just 17%. The NZ proportion peaked at 35% in mid 2016.

AWAITING LOWE
Eyes are on the RBA policy update at 4:30 this afternoon. Signals that rate changes might come earlier have been expected at this meeting, but Ukraine might hold them back.

GOLD DOWN
In early Asian trading, gold is now at US$1904 and down -US$5 from where we opened this morning.

EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER
Wall Street ended its Monday session down just -0.2% which was much better than earlier in the days' trading. Tokyo has opened up a very strong +1.7%. Hong Kong is flat at their open, constrained by a city-wide lockdown imposed from Beijing officials to test everyone in the city for Omicron. Shanghai is up +0.5% at its open today. The ASX200 is up +1.6% in early afternoon trade there. The NZX50 is also up +1.6% near its close

SWAPS SLIP AGAIN TODAY
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to have fallen again today across the board as a risk off mood settles in. But the 90 day bank bill rate jumped +7 bps at 1.26%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is down -2 bps from this time yesterday to 2.17%. The China Govt 10yr is little-changed at 2.81%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 2.76% (down -1 bp) and now above the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.73% (down -4 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.86%, a -6 bps fall from this time yesterday.

NZ DOLLAR HIGHER
The Kiwi dollar is much higher than this time yesterday, now at 67.6 USc and up +¾c from then. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 93.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up at 60.3 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is higher by +60 bps at 72.3.

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BITCOIN LEAPS
Bitcoin has shifted to a strong rising trend, now at US$43,288 and up almost +15% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been extreme at just on +/- 8.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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