Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
HSBC raised both its floating (+40 bps) and some of its fixed rates today. It also trimmed -5 bps from its three year fixed, down to 4.49%.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here today.
FMA DIRECTS SIMPLICITY TO REMOVE MISLEADING ADVERTISING
The Financial Markets Authority (FMA) is directing KiwiSaver provider Simplicity to remove advertising it says breaches fair dealing provisions of the Financial Markets Conduct Act, and ensure future advertising is compliant. The FMA direction relates to Simplicity’s "All Greys" advertising campaign, featuring the statement; “get out of the game when you want to, retire with up to 20% more than the average KiwiSaver plan”, encouraging people to switch to Simplicity. The FMA says the statement is unsubstantiated and likely to mislead or deceive.
ECONOMIC JUICE VIA FARMERS GROWS
ANZ economists now forecast a milk price of $9.30 per kilogram of milk solids in the 2022-23 season and $9.70 for the current season. Full details of all analyst forecasts here at the bottom of that page.
GENERAL RETREAT
Readers of our rural section will have noted a further sharpish drop in the carbon price. It is now down to NZ$72/NZU, down -15% in the past four weeks, and the sharpest one week drop ever. In fact it is going down faster than it ever went up. The EU carbon price dropped fast too, and we had earlier surmised that retreat would be felt in NZ markets soon. It has. Despite a small bounce yesterday, the EU carbon price is down -27% in just over a week.
FARMER SENTIMENT DETERIORATES TO RECORD LOW
Farmer confidence is the lowest it has been since Federated Farmers began twice-a-year surveys in 2009, the January survey results show. Of responses from nearly 1000 farmers from around the country, a net 7.8% considered current economic conditions to be good, a -10 point decline from the July 2021 survey, when almost 18% considered conditions to be good. Looking forward, a net 64% of farmers believed general economic conditions would worsen over the next 12 months, a 25-point deterioration from the 39% in the July survey. The previous low was in July 2020.
MAJOR BANKS LIFT MARKET SHARE
KPMG's FIPS Report says Kiwibank had the largest growth in their loan book in 2021. They were followed by ASB and BNZ, then ANZ. Westpac had the smallest growth. Overall these five grew market share in 2021.
A GRADUAL RECOVERY
ANZ's truckometer survey is still an uncertain metric. But in February at least neither the light (car) or heavy (truck) indexes fell. Hard to know what to make of these nowadays, but ANZ suggests they indicate a gradual recovery.
WHERE INFLATION STRUCK EARLY
In 2020, local authority rates and 'regulatory income' (that is fees and fines) rose +2.4% from 2019. But in 2021 they jumped +6.5% over 2020. Better (if you are a local authority - or 'worse' if you are not), the Q4-2021 rose even faster, up +7.3% from the same quarter in 2020. Here is a longer term perspective.
GETTING BACK SOME MOMENTUM
The almost-fast piece of the GDP data for Q4-2021 was released today by Stats NZ for manufacturing sales. This data was strong with sales up to over $35 bln in the quarter, to $122 bln in all of 2021. That seems to end a prior four year period where factory sales plateaued.
CHRIS LAMERS TO BE NEW MTF FINANCE CEO
MTF Finance has appointed Chris Lamers its new CEO, effective May. Lamers is currently Deputy Group CEO and Chief Customer Growth Officer at Humm Group, whose consumer operations are being bought by Latitude Group Holdings. In December MTF Finance announced Glen Todd, its CEO of seven years, was leaving in early 2022.
JB MOVES OVER
Ex-CEO of Cooperative Bank, David Cunningham has a new role as CEO of Squirrel Group, "replacing" John Bolton. Maybe 'replacing' isn't the right word in this case.
TEN DAYS BECOMES SEVEN
The isolation period for COVID-19 cases and their household contacts will be reduced from 10 to seven days, Minister for COVID-19 Response Chris Hipkins announced today.
THE AUSSIES ARE GLUM
Australian consumer sentiment is falling on a growing set of factors that compound each other, including the pandemic, floods, and war. Housing gets an honourable mention too. (This survey was taken before the demise of Shane Warne.)
'DEFAULT IMMINENT'
Ratings agency Fitch says Russia is about to default on its debt obligations. It has downgraded Russian Government bonds to C. (Russia paying its US dollar bond obligations in rubles is default, says Fitch.)
NO INFLATION IN CHINA
China's inflation rate is staying low, running at only +0.9% in February. This was as expected. Meanwhile China's producer prices rose +8.8% in February from a year ago, slightly higher than expected but lower than January.
GOLD UP SHARPLY
In early Asian trading, gold is now at US$2042/oz and up +US$49/oz or +2.5% from this time yesterday. It has been moving around a lot and closed in London at US$2039/oz, and closed in New York at US$2053/oz.
EQUITIES STOP FALLING
In New York, equities were volatile, being up sharply at one stage, down sharply earlier. The S&P500 ended down -0.7% in their Tuesday trade. In opening Wednesday trade, Tokyo is up +0.5%, Hong Kong is %, Shanghai is %. In earlier afternoon trade, the ASX200 is up +0.8% and the NZX50 is up +0.2%.
SWAPS PUSH UP EVEN HIGHER
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to be up again as the outsized ANZ view pervades financial markets. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +8 bps at 1.43%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is up +8 bps at 2.28% despite the RBA Governor reiterating they will be patient. No-one is listening. The China Govt 10yr is up +1 bp at 2.86%. The New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now at 2.92% (up +11 bps) and still higher than the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 2.88% (up +8 bps). The US Govt ten year is now at 1.85%. That is up another +8 bps from this time yesterday. Investors have added to their growing conviction the Fed will raise rates next week.
NZ DOLLAR SOFTISH
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from this time yesterday, now at 68.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up at 93.7 AUc. Against the euro we much lower at 62.4 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 73.5 and down less than -20 bps.
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BITCOIN UP
Bitcoin booked a smallish gain from this time yesterday, now at US$38,674 and up +1.3%. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.9%.
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73 Comments
If you need your money within a shortish timeframe then you should not invest in an aggressive fund in the first place. Otherwise it is gambling, not investing.
If you are not within a shortish timeframe, then the value on your account is only a snapshot in time of very relative value and meaning.
fortunr
Agree - one needs to be in a KS conservative fund and move to a cash fund when the likely purchase date gets closer.**
Only suggestion is that one also puts the $1000 minimum (along with any superannuation funds transferred from Australia) that can not be drawn on into a growth fund. Fund managers allow one to split one’s balance into different funds.
**Depending on one’s appetite to risk, and current situation, one could split some of the savings into a moderate fund.
Bigger problem for those due to retire soon.
Time in the market is irrelevant, what matters is the time when you exit.
I knew a lot of people in 2008 who had to go back to work after 50-75% losses. You can't just recover that with gains, you need to be sticking in more of your own cash as well.
Yip a big sharemarket crash and housing market crash could be brutal for boomers who have overextended themselves immediately at/after retirement.
Hopefully they're all cash/conservative in their funds and debt free/not relying on capital from investment properties down track because who knows what could happen.
Its hard. Should you be in conservative cash if you are 64 expecting to retire, but on average will live another 20 years? or 70 retired and still expecting another 15 years?
I would say partially but not fully. You still need to A) grow the fund and b) won't be contributing any more capital. So you are reliant solely on gains.
Easy for a homebuyer, they at least know the timeframe they need to plan for.
IO
Bollocks
You are totally wrong regarding KiwiSaver and those close to or in retirement Your advice is contrary to that of registered financial advisers and contrary to basic financial management principals.
Anyone with a bit of financial nous will know that retirees will be drawing on their funds over a period of twenty years and likely more and that advantage can be taken of higher risk and higher investment return over the longer term.
Approaching retirement one should structure their KiwiSave with sufficient funds in a low risk conservative/cash fund for short term need, some in a moderate fund for medium term and higher risk growth for funds unlikely to be required for long term.
Fund managers allow you to stipulate as to which fund you wish to draw your funds from and that is likely to be a conservative/cash fund. Overtime of many years, one can move funds from higher risk growth funds to more conservative funds.
To move all of one’s funds into a conservative funds as you suggest is a folly.
You are also incorrect to suggest that one’s funds should be moved to alternative managed funds. Unlike such alternatives, KiwiSaver funds do not have entry or withdrawal fees and have management fees that are often half that of other managed funds.
Lack of an entry fee and lower management fee for KiwiSaver is an advantage when one gets irregular sums of money.
Another advantage of KiwiSaver is that providers usually indicate that withdrawals will be processed and in one’s bank account within 10 to 15 days (my experience is five days) whereas managed funds is usually far longer.
One is also likely to look at a balanced portfolio and only if so one can look at a range of other investments SOME of which could be ETFs (although KS funds will have the same diversification at less management fee and entry cost).
The key point - KiwiSaver is one of the best investment vehicles available for the majority of retirees.
Not sure why but each comment you make feels like a blackhole trying to suck you into some form of dark insanity (an argumentative tone that leaves a bad taste in ones mouth - and unfortunately for someone of a given age, such personality traits are unlikely to change).
If you know best, good for you. I have offered some advice if people want to look into it they can. Or you can spread the word around the retirement village or what ever other village you come from.
I could have spent time writing a reasoned response (getting into liquidity, risk return, asset allocation, the capital asset pricing model, diversification, fees, currency risk and inflation), but I'm getting wiser at knowing when I'm completing wasting my time dealing with a closed book who already knows everything.
Have a nice evening.
HM
Cant do if there isn’t a reasoned response. More than happy to debate anytime.
The reality is that IO recognises his post for what it is . . . simply just bollocks and he is both unable to put up a reasoned response and acknowledge it for what it is. :)
Interesting that the cabal like to pontificate, pat each other on the back, but loath to be challenged without throwing their toys/packing a hissy.
Have a great night fellas - I’m smiling.
Cheers
No one should be in 100% stocks at retirement, should at least have some bonds and cash in there as any financial advisor would say. Plus both the NZX50 and the S&P500 fell by less than 50% in the 2008 crash, so to get falls like that they must have either been in far too risky investments.
Jeepy
Agreed
A “growth” or high risk fund has a higher degree of volatility but over the long term is expected to produce higher returns.
This is one of those volatile times.
Many would have learnt in March 2020 with the onset of COVID as to how KS growth funds especially were affected. The reality is that there is a time delay for your provider in switching your fund by which time the market will most probably have hit its low or close to it. Those who did switch funds at the time did so at considerable cost.
Due to the volatility of “growth” funds is that one needs to be prepared to accept that volatility. If one can’t, then they should look at more moderate risk.
One of the first things a financial manager will do is to before advising you is to assess your risk tolerance.
Gold, silver charts looking mighty fine. 5 mins in the sun for the community. Just noticed that GDX gold miners ETF is still 40% below 2011 price. Doesn't get any attention whatsoever.
Ol' ratty looking solid despite the carnage. Everyone waiting for the U.S. govt announcement.
Still opportunity to get a slice of the gold action via AUs miners. They seem to lag the gold price, I guess investors are waiting to see if gold rise is baked in.
Already primed my friend. Don't talk about at the BBQs as you always get funny looks as they decode the prophecies of Ashley Church and the rivers of riches from Synlait.
Yea gold miner don't hold their mined gold as an appreciating asset, they continuously dump on the market.
In contrast, Bitcoin miners (especially publicly traded ones) continue to not only hold most of the coins they mine (and finance operating costs with cheap debt) but sometimes buy Bitcoin as well.
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/top-bitcoin-miners-holdings-hash-ra…
And then we have the next halving coming up in 787 days (5 May 2024) which will further cut in half the new amount of coins being mined per day form 900 to 450. We are also not far off having mined 19m coins (just over 90%), so there are only 2m new coins left to come to market.....
https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/
All I can say is the supply crunch is going to be massive.
Its out apparently. Markets like it!
Yeah I decided last year to add to my inflation hedge with more gold, silver, australia resources, gold miners, food and fuel etfs. All seem to be going vertical at present.
As you say, nobody talking about it other than the hardcore fans I follow on twitter.
Moved a proportion of my portfolio to gold/GDX and some silver when the 2/10 inverted back in 2019. Its been pretty consistent in avoiding the bust/boom carnage the last few years - although missed some of the tech stock boom. Hopefully can get the timing right and move out of the gold/silver position at the top and this times in nicely to buy into the bottom of the main NYSE/ASX/NZX indexes.
Its possible - was reading somewhere...think it was from the dollar milkshake theory guy on twitter that if we end up having to fix fiat back to a gold standard as a result of all this madness...the Ruble is pretty much there based upon assets, while the US would require the price of gold to be refixed up to $24K USD.
Fuel prices will cripple some families, especially those South Aucklanders who work two jobs and just have to drive.
Here in Central Otago there are folk who live in one of Alexandra, Wanaka, Cromwell or Queestown. But work in the other. So forty minutes to an hour commute (not that much different to Auckland I guess) They get through a lot of fuel.
Cromwell actually has good prices. Better than Dunedin even with a 230km haul in the road tankers. And both places much better than Auckland, even accounting for the extra tax there . Odd.
About 18 months ago I scored diesel for 78c a litre. Today is quite different. Could triple that cost soon.
I use a "Farmlands" card which gives me a 12c a litre off at Z/Caltex/Challenge. And a price at Z/Caltex truckstop which is better.
Friday I filled at the Truckstop for Diesel at $1.75. At Z they were headlining $1.96 I think. (I can get it 12c less). Today I see Z at $2.23 !!!!!!!. Some families, already on the edge, will fall off.
Yes the price of crude is going up. And yes there is tax. But crude has not doubled, and refining and shipping has not doubled. So what is actually going on.
I would like to see a proper analysis and cost breakdown, as to how prices have tracked monthly over the last few years.
Broken down into Crude/refining/shipping/internal transport/ wholesaler cost and margin/retailer cost and margin/tax and also . David Seymour published a table the other day showing the tax. But showing the tax only is useless, underwhelming politics.
Don't know where to find it, and never seen such a breakdown. It would be good to know.
I think we do know that New Zealanders are farmed by these industries. And that the government and Commerce Commission don't see it their job to change it.
“We are deeply concerned about what will likely happen with energy prices.” Thus quoth our PM Adern. Well, good lady so are we but palaver, frowny words ain’t going to help us one little bit, afraid to say. Purely as a matter of interest though, when was the last time you paid to fill up a tank?
Marsden Point is owned by Refining NZ.
Refining NZ is an NZX top 50 listed company with around 5000 private and corporate investors. Major oil companies BP, Mobil and Z Energy are significant shareholders and well as our largest customers.
The decision to switch to fuel importation from refining is a commercial one undertaken by a private company.
I know that but read this, the government did unwisely dismiss the option:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127057188/no-last-minute-reprieve-for-….
I knew that. But defeated by auto correct once more. The last time I discussed this star, was a chance encounter mid 1980s in a pub near Daventry Northumberland, with Gordon Waller (also passed not so long ago and another nice guy) one of my questions what happened, that such a great voice hadn’t carried on. He said he had just disappeared from the scene, almost overnight.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/03/09/migrants-offered-big-money-to-fake-m…
So $30,000 is the price for NZ residency + a measure of risk. Surely it is time INZ put up their prices so it can process applications as fast as the passport office processes applications for a new passport. INZ always uses the excuse that their staff are over whelmed with work.
The isolation period for COVID-19 cases and their household contacts will be reduced from 10 to seven days
Looks like Hipkins is having more luck negotiating with COVID than Zelenskiy is with the Russians. I wonder what he had to concede in order to bring the infectious period down by 3 days.
I'm kind of expecting a mutiny in the Russian forces. It seems to me, although I could be a victim of disinformation, that they haven't been very effective at force protection. The parents of the soldiers will be angry and the soldiers themselves will likely be too. This is the 21st century not the 1930s.
Russian Soldier Says He Realised War Was Wrong When His Favorite Boxers Joined Ukraine Army
The Russian soldier admitted that people like him were fed another narrative and it was difficult to verify. "When we entered this territory I watched the address of your boxers (Olexander Usyk and Vasily Lomachenko). Back home I always loved watching them. "They said 'we didn't call you here'. I feel shame that we came to this country."
https://www.indiatimes.com/news/world/captured-russian-soldier-talks-ab…
Mutiny! Well wouldn’t that be ironic. It was the Kronstadt naval mutiny 1917 that kicked off the revolution that eventually saw the Bolsheviks prevail, thence the so called regime in Russia as of today. And certainly what was suppressed then and then again behind the iron curtain is electronically available right, left and centre today.
"In 2020, local authority rates and 'regulatory income' (that is fees and fines) rose +2.4% from 2019. But in 2021 they jumped +6.5% over 2020. Better... the Q4-2021 rose even faster, up +7.3% from the same quarter in 2020...."
Don't worry, increasing interest rates will sort this key source of domestic inflation out sharpish.
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