A review of things you need to know before you go home on Wednesday; no-one follows ANZ up, building consents surge, inflation 'moon-bound', insurers charge more but earn less, swaps soft, NZD firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
None to report today. No major has followed ANZ higher yet.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None here either from any bank but Mutual Credit Finance has raised its offers.

'CPI INFLATION IS MOON-BOUND'
Latest ANZ Business Outlook Survey shows inflation expectations reaching a record survey high, while a 'remarkable' 96% of firms expect higher costs and their pricing intentions have moved into 'uncharted territory'.

BUILDING CONSENT SURGE
Residential construction still booming with new dwelling consents up +25% in the year to February to a new record of almost 50,000 (49,773). There were 4195 dwelling consents issued in February, far higher (+30%) than the previous record for a February of 3238 in 2019. Auckland is building 40% of them (monthly and annually) and the surge is really noticeable in consents for townhouses. Will it continue into 2022? Westpac says they think so.

ALTERATIONS & ADDITIONS
The consenting of housing alteration and additions projects was also unusually high in February. These are usually reported by value (and an all-time record high for a February), but the number of these consents is now back to 2007 levels when they last spiked.

LONG TERM CHANGES COMING
Changes to the tax deductibility rules for residential investment property could bring significant long term changes to the housing market, says Greg Ninness. More here.

HIGHER PREMIUMS, LOWER PROFITS
According to RBNZ monitoring of the insurance industry (J10), life insurance premiums rose +24% in the year to December 2021, and rose +9% for the general insurance industry. If you are paying for house, contents or car insurance you probably already know that. The loss ratios rose for both types (life and general). Overall industry profitability was down to $889 mln industrywide, an -8% fall. You can't split the two sectors for profitability in this RBNZ data. The total of all investment assets (J20) fell to $16.7 bln, down from $17.0 bln a year earlier.

GOLD DOWN AGAIN
In early Asian trading, gold is down -US$2 from this time yesterday at just over US$1922/oz.

EQUITIES HIGHER EVERYWHERE, AGAIN
On Wall Street, the S&P500 ended its Tuesday session up +1.2% in a building gain. Tokyo has opened down -0.7% in Wednesday morning trade. Hing Kong is up another 1.2% in early trade. Shanghai is up +1.0% in their opening trade. The ASX200 is up +0.8% in early Wednesday afternoon trade. The NZX50 is also up +0.8% in late trade.

SWAPS SOFT
We don't have today's closing swap rates yet. They are likely to be soft following Wall Street bond market signals. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 1.60%. The Australian Govt ten year benchmark bond rate is down -7 bps from this time yesterday at 2.82%. The China Govt 10yr is back down -1 bp at 2.82%. And the New Zealand Govt 10 year bond rate is now lower at 3.32% (down -5 bps) but still higher than the earlier RBNZ fix for that 10yr rate at 3.31% (down -1 bp). The US Govt ten year is now at 2.37% and a -11 bps retreat since this time yesterday. The UST 2-10 curve inversion threat remains but it hasn't held yet.

NZ DOLLAR FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is now at 69.5 USc and back up more than +½c that this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down firmer at under 92.5 AUc. Against the euro we are a tad lower at 62.6 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now up to 74.7 and a +30 bps rise.

BITCOIN SLIPS
Bitcoin has fallen -1.4% today to US$46,803. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.6%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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