Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
NBS raised its floating rate today by +50 bps to 6.95%. Bank of China cut their home loan rates for terms 6 mths to 3 years
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
None to report here today - so far at least.
CAR LOAN RATE CHANGE
AA Money (t/a AA Finance, a 50/50 JV between the Automobile Association and Suncorp) has raised its car loans by +104 bps, "from 5.95% to 15.95% to "from 6.99% to 16.99%". Actual rates charged are risk-assessed.
DOUBLE-DIGIT SURGE
The average national build cost for a new stand-alone house, excluding land, increased by +$75,000 in the June year to $539,000, a +16% jump. These cost increases appear to be driving the push to more intensive housing, especially in Auckland. High prices are causing the construction pipeline to flattening off.
INFLATION EXPECTATIONS EASE BACK
The influential expectations survey run for the RBNZ by Nielsen among economists and other 'wise men' (35 business leaders and professional forecasters with field work for the survey was run between the 19th and 25th of July 2022), has seen this group pare back many of their expectations for both inflation and economic activity. But this easing off is unlikely to deter the central bank from another 50 point OCR hike next week.
'IT'S ALL THE SUPPLIERS FAULT'
New analysis from Infometrics, commissioned by Foodstuffs New Zealand, showcases the increasing cost of grocery supply as inflationary pressures build for suppliers. Foodstuffs says their buying costs are now rising at a +7.9% annualised rate. (That is more than the June CPI which was up +7.3%.)
MISERY RISING
Our misery index has risen to 10.6%, the highest it has been since 1994 which was 28 years ago (that is looking past the 2010/11 leap when GST was last raised). The inflation component is 7.4% and the unemployment component is 3.2%. The inflation component is the highest since at least 1990 because that is when we started this series. The 2010/11 jump was only to 5.3%. The unemployment component is bouncing along at its record low. It peaked at 11.1% in 1992. The Australian misery index is now 9.6% and has been lower than ours for more than a year now.
NOT SO SUNNY
In Australia, insurance major Suncorp is pushing through some chunky premium hikes. Their premiums are rising at the highest pace in almost a decade, the company’s full-year results indicate. Profits are falling in all their key divisions (and recall they have agreed to sell their bank to ANZ). Even their New Zealand profits are retreating. And this is despite rising premiums across all their brands.
WE ARE HIRING
If you are an experience economic or business journalist and would like to work in the Press Gallery in Wellington, we have a position open. Details here.
SWAP RATES RISE
Wholesale swap rates probably moved up sharply today on the back of the international trends over the weekend. But the impact of the RBNZ Expectations survey on these rates won't be known until trading closes. The 90 day bank bill rate jumped +6 bps at 3.29%. That is a new 7-year high, its highest since June 2015. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.24% and down -2 bps from this morning. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 2.75% and little-changed. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 3.43%, up +10 bps from this morning, and now just below the earlier RBNZ fix for this bond which was up +6 bps at 3.45%. The UST 10 year is now at 2.83% and unchanged from this morning and holding all the rise generated by the US payrolls data.
EQUITIES CRAWL ALONG
After another good weekly rise last week, the NZX50 has opened today down -0.4% in late trade today. The ASX200 is unchanged in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.2% in its Monday opening. Hong Kong is down -0.5% in its early trade. Shanghai is flat. The S&P500 futures suggests that Wall Street will open down -0.2% tomorrow. Remember, August is northern hemisphere holiday season, so volumes are light and key traders are not at their desks.
GOLD LITTLE-CHANGED
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$2 where we opened this morning, now at US$1,774/oz.
NZD STUTTERS
The Kiwi dollar has firmed today to 62.6 USc from where we opened this morning (but recall it was over 63 this time Friday). However, the RBNZ Expectations survey took -15 bps off these rates, now back at 62.4 USc. Against the AUD we are little-changed at 90.3 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 61.5 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is now at just on 71.1.
BITCOIN ON HOLD
Bitcoin is now at US$23,246 and essentially unchanged from where we opened this morning. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/-1.1%.
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57 Comments
Our misery index has risen to 10.6%
I'd have thought it was over 100%. Things are literally the worst, the boomers stole muh money and everything is all woke.
Not really.
But there is a wikipedia page on the subject: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woke that contains a suggestion of it being a "single-word summation of leftist political ideology, centered on social justice politics and critical race theory"
Speaking of misery. What hope is there for a civilised society if this is the calibre of politicians we are being asked chose from?
- he was 16 when he admits he beat the younger 13 y.o boy, and can't recall if he used a bed leg to do so, or not. But doesn't discount the possibility.
I would recall the facts of what I did at 16 if an event of that magnitude was involved, and no amount of political expediency would alter that.
Just lucky I'm not contemplating a noble career in politics, I guess.
Some of its a representation of the people we produce, but also how we measure and judge people.
What half decent person would want the job. At least half the population won't like you from the onset, and any significant change is going to be grossly unpopular by some of your own voter base.
We seem to be careening down a road of short sighted populism, that rarely results in wise decisions.
Pa1nter… great comment! I had an interesting convo with the miss’s last night, she used to be a press sec to one of the more popular PM’S.. he was a Key figure. She admitted to me that the private sector is relied on in NZ to take up the housing responsibilities as the government just can’t get shit done. It’s amazing how much wheel spinning goes on in politics. I mean, truely amazing!
Let's face it, if you wanted to help people you'd be better off becoming a professional Tik Tok influencer or black market smuggler than being a politician.
Blows my mind that National would have had this guy disclose his past and think "yep, that's the sort of candidate we could do with" (especially considering they could have run an SPCA rescue dog in Tauranga and won anyway - with the added bonus of Tux biscuits being a cheap form of fundraising) ... unless I read the news wrong and he didn't disclose it?
If he didn't disclose, then they need to send him packing today - even if it means losing another by-election.
If he did disclose, well I don't even know how you come back from that as a party that stands for law and order, but more pertinently a party that has a track record of iffy selections for past/current personal behaviour? Did they not think such an incident would one day come to light?
I suppose Labour had Trevor Mallard do his best impersonation of Muhammad Ali on another MP, which is even more egregious but a heck of a long time ago ... hard to use that as a defence the best part of 20 years later.
It's one thing to be involved in a dust-up at school - but this sounds more like a "hazing" gone wrong or something like that?
People do dumb things when they are young, particularly that young. A beating like that was not uncommon at that time, and I don't think it is that uncommon now. I took some beatings at high school and gave some too. Some I regret, some I don't. Either way. I would not be expecting any apologies from people who dished it out to me, and I would not call to apologize to someone 22 years later. It's water under the bridge. Explaining is losing. He shouldn't have done anything. That was the mistake
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/national-mp-sam-uffindell-asked-to-leave-…
exceprts;
Police were not involved but he was reportedly asked to leave King's College, finishing his schooling at St Paul's Collegiate in Hamilton.
It was reported the now MP for Tauranga apologised to his victim 22 years after the attack and nine months before he revealed his political aspirations.
The victim, who was not named, told Stuff Uffindell contacted him through a mutual acquaintance in July last year to apologise, which the victim eventually accepted.
"But then a few months later I sat down to watch the news on the couch with a beer and there he was, running for Parliament," the victim said. "I felt sick."
Uffindell had reportedly not mentioned his political intentions during the interaction.
And from Stuff;
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300656643/national-mp-sam-uff…
Uffindell said he decided to apologise after returning to New Zealand from overseas, after a long stint away. He worried about the emotional damage he might have done, he said. He was thankful the victim had talked to him.
He said there was no link between wanting to enter politics and the apology, which is why he didn’t mention the fact he would be entering politics at the time of the call.
Uffindell does not mention King’s College in his biography online.
He gave his maiden speech to Parliament last week, speaking at length about how Tauranga was beset by gang issues and a “growing culture of lawlessness, lack of accountability, a sense of impunity, and significant underlying generational social problems.”
Perhaps National could bring in a policy to deal with the wave of youth crime by placing them in prestigious boarding schools where they could have better role models,it certainly worked for Sam.Imagine if poor Sam had been placed in a youth offenders facility at that tender age,he may have ended up dealing meth with the Comancheroes instead of becoming a fine upstanding citizen ready to serve his country...all in all,it's a success story for the Nats...like Luxon said,no easy ride with the Nats,a bit of tough love and Sam has turnedaway from the slippery slope of crime.Well done son.
I don’t think you understand, or you never went to high school. I meant at high school. No booze involved. High school hostels things like this happen all the time……and most probably this has been blown out of proportion anyway.
Does happen. Doesn't mean that all senior boarders bashed 3rd formers. Hazing yes.
Yes hazing is common, but four Seniors with weapons is not hazing, that is just a brutal assualt.
I mean the fact the school got rid of them, clearly shows it must have been a lot worse than the normal, given all the other stuff that was brushed under the rug back then.
It wasn't a "dumb thing".
It was a cruel thing. It was a despicable thing. And if you are a cruel bully at 16, you will still be a prize jerk with zero empathy as an adult. Guaranteed.
This is from Spinoff:
That the man who was violently beaten by Sam Uffindell in a school dormitory has been left feeling that an apology, more than two decades on, was cynical and incomplete, while Uffindell stands in parliament to bemoan a “culture of lawlessness, lack of accountability, a sense of impunity” suggests that problem may yet take some fixing.
I don’t think that’s true, many good people did cruel things at that age, especially boys and especially with peer pressure. I would say the party he has chosen says more about him than something he did years ago: he’s no labour or greens, but not at ACT unkindness level.
If your 13 year old son was woken in the night by a bunch of 16 year olds who were bashing him (possibly with a bed leg - Uffindel "can't remember" whether or not he used a bed leg to beat the boy) would you feel differently?
Would you say that the 16 year olds were just "behaving badly"?
If a Maori 16 year old did that, they would likely be sent through the juvenile court system.
16 is well old enough to know right from wrong.
No they wouldn't - this kind of thing was a common in schools 20-30 years ago. Source i was at one.
Shock horror sometimes Maoris were violent when their pre frontal cortex wasnt even half developed yet at age 16. 16 year olds do dumb things period.
Know nothing about this guy but the fact this is an issue is incredible. There was a fully developed adult joking about killing his political opposition a few weeks ago.
And what's the correct way to punish him? How many professions would you bar him from other than Politics? Is there any hope of redemption, turning over a new leaf?
You are probably right that he was shielded by privilege. I'm not necessarily saying the punishment was adequate, not knowing the facts, but once someone has been punished and in some way atoned for their crimes, should they not be allowed to live a normal life?
Does the same apply for someone punished and atoned for their crimes if they want to be a Police Officer? Given how generous our MP pay scales are, when compared to policing, surely our candidates must be scrutinized accordingly? I mean, isn't that the whole argument behind their level of pay? He stuffed up, there's probably 1000 other students who didn't stuff up and would perform similarly in a role as a list MP if they were given the opportunity.
To be fair, the previous police commissioner was convicted of drink driving in his early 20s and then continued the "present day" policy of drink driving convictions preventing you from joining the police ... hypocrisy isn't limited only to MPs it seems!
There are some offences (like drink driving - unless you're Mike Bush) that are an immediate "no go" for recruitment, but there are others for which you can have a second chance but typically have to plead your case to a senior officer during the recruitment process, who will decide whether you can proceed or not.
That is not trying to defend this guy - and from National's perspective I struggle to see why they would have put him forward as a candidate knowing this kind of history (as the skeletons are all-but-certain to walk out of the crypt at some point).
I'm sure we all did dumb stuff as teenagers, and I do think that everyone should get a second chance - but from a perspective of public perception alone this looks terrible and he needs to go. If it had been disclosed prior to the by-election, then it wouldn't be such an issue.
Adolescent admittedly. But it was a pack of ‘em on to one, from the sound of it. This is not good however you might look at it, despite making atonement many many years later, which appears to have been suddenly prompted by thought towards the obligations and profile of public office. Certainly everyone deserves a second chance but the question is, was this episode & expulsion disclosed to the selecting panel?
ps. edit. Oh the incident was disclosed to the party. After the shenanigans, of Barclay, Walker & Boag, Ross, Falloon one might have thought the National Party was a bit leery of skeletons that might just come jumping out of the cupboard? Right here now, they have wilfully, unnecessarily created distraction, negativity & outright scandal right back in the same self destructive mode leading up to the last election. Blimey! When will they ever learn.
Thing is some of those adolescent's were actually decent people - most weren't. To use they were adolescent as an excuse is poor if not the most appalling attempt at rationalizing what is appalling behaviour in any circumstances. Physical assault is physical assault at any age.
https://www.thoughtco.com/robbers-cave-experiment-4774987
and how people will behave if allowed
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_prison_experiment
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milgram_experiment
The thing is that this Sam Uffendil guy was all "law and order".
His very first speech to parliament was all about being tough on law and order. "Accountability".
His political position would be that groups of 16 year old boys must face "law and order" consequences if they go around beating 13 year olds with bed legs.
Hypocrisy. One rule for me, another rule for everyone else.
I get your point, I really do (and I suffered terribly at the hands of bullies when I was a dweeb of a 13 year old, fortunately by age 15 I was 6 foot 1 and nearly 80 kilograms - quite big by mid 1980s standards, and could take care of myself - still didn't erase the horrid experience though).
I'm on the fence about whether it is hypocritical, again plenty of 16 year-olds do bad things, that is potentially the product of hormones and peer pressure, although this was at the nastier end of 'bad things', for sure.
Also the bad shit I saw at school was usually committed by 14-15 year-olds, most had grown out of it by 16...
Hmmm, let me mull on it further.
4 x 5th formers vs 1 x sleeping 3rd former? All the bullying I experienced was more or less isolated to the forms, you might get the odd 5th on 4th form etc. Picking on 3rd formers was strictly limited to calling them "turds". It was an unwritten rule.
Man watch out if people found out a group of 5th formers beat up a 3rd former. We all make mistakes when we're young, but this isn't the sort of mistake most people with half a brain should be making.
Not going to happen. They are currently subsidising mortgage holders rates with reduced TD rates. Compare to Robo and heartland who don’t hold significant house debts. How can the big banks, including Kiwibank reduce their mortgage rate while while interest rates are rising. TD are the cash cow to retain their margin.
NACTional can form government in poll: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/political-poll-national-and-act-can-form-…
lord help us.
Good piece at Macrobusiness on the economic (not military) warfare needed on China. All the CCP fanboys here will hate it:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/08/if-china-wants-a-wargame-lets-…
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