A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; housing markets at turning point; population becalmed & older, house building out of steam; dairy prices in focus, swaps await RBNZ signals, NZD slips, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Non changes to report here today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
No changes here either.

TURNING POINT
CoreLogic says more properties selling at a loss with housing market at a turning point.

BECALMED & OLDER
New Zealand's population is growing at its slowest in at least 36 years. It rose only +12,700 in the past year, about +35/day, as births slowed, deaths rose (from the pandemic) and the borders were shut. There are now 5,124,100 residents according to the latest update. The median age is now 38 years. It is now rising its fastest in ten years, only beaten on that measure during the 1998/99 recession. There are now less than four working-aged people (15-64) than those over 65, a new low. At the rate those over 65 'demand' services and benefits, it is clearly not sustainable.

WE'VE HAD THE START, NOW THE STOP
The BRANZ-Pacifecon annual forecast of the construction project pipeline sees an -$11 bln slump in housebuilding by 2025 which is a fall by more than a third, driving an overall construction fall of -$9 bln. But they still see infrastructure and non-residential construction activity staying 'solid'.

RENT FREEZE ADVOCATED
The Human Rights Commission is calling for a rent freeze and an increase in the Accommodation Supplement to help those hit hardest by the cost-of-living shocks to rent and food.

STILL GRINDING LOWER?
There is another dairy auction tomorrow morning. The past four have seen overall prices fall -15%. Tomorrow's auction is likely to continue that trend with WMP likely to be -4% lower and SMP likely to be as much as -7% lower. Convictions by analysts that the 2022/23 farm gate payout forecasts can be held will probably be tested.

'DISHONEST & MISLEADING'
The FMA has made an interim stop order that applies to Wisdom House Investment Partners Limited and Yuen Pok (Paul) Loo, to prohibit them from distributing any restricted communication that relates to the supply of a financial advice service to any person; and supplying a financial advice service to any person; and supplying the financial service of keeping, investing, administering, or managing money, securities, or investment portfolios on behalf of other persons. The FMA considers making this interim stop order is necessary to prevent Wisdom House and Paul Loo causing harm arising from what appears to be dishonest and misleading activities.

'INVESTING' IN GREEN HYDROGEN
New Zealand and Germany are to do some research on green hydrogen projects. It will see the NZ Government 'invest' $5 mln into three green hydrogen projects, and our research teams will get access to European green hydrogen research facilities and expertise. Funded through the Catalyst fund, each project will receive $2 million over three years. These are the development of safe, low-cost hydrogen storage (led by Professor Sally Brooker from the University of Otago), investigating ways of producing low-cost green hydrogen (led by Dr Aaron Marshall from the University of Canterbury), and the creation of a New Zealand-German platform for green hydrogen integration (led by Dr Jannik Haas from the University of Canterbury).

NO SURPRISES
In Australia, an unsurprising RBA set of minutes from the last meeting has most observers convinced they will raise their policy rate another +50 bps again in early September to 2.35%.

SWAP RATES HOLD (NERVOUSLY)
Wholesale swap rates are probably little-changed today at the short end but lower at the long end. The 90 day bank bill rate slipped -1 bp to 3.30% ahead of tomorrow's OCR review. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.26% and down a very sharp -15 bps since this time yesterday. China isn't helping. The China 10 year bond rate is at 2.67% and another -2 bps slip and a two year low. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 3.39%, down -9 bps from this morning, and now just below the earlier RBNZ fix for this bond which was down -11 bps to 3.40%. The UST 10 year is now at 2.78% and down -6 bps from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES MIXED
The S&P500 ended its Monday Wall Street session up +0.4%. Tokyo has opened its Tuesday session flat. Hong Kong has recovered +0.2% and Shanghai is up +0.3% in early trade. The ASX200 is up +0.6% in early afternoon trade. But the NZX50 has given up earlier gains to be trading marginally lower near the end.

GOLD SLIPS OFF FURTHER
In early Asian trade, gold fallen -US$18 to US$1,779/oz.

NZD SLIPS
The Kiwi dollar is much softer today, down nearly -¾c at 63.6 USc. Against the AUD we are little-changed at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are marginally softer at 62.6 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is now back down at 72.

BITCOIN SLIPS TOO
Bitcoin is down -2.9% from this time yesterday to US$24,199. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 3.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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