Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
TSB raised all their fixed term rates today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
First Credit Union raised some TD rates.
A SUDDEN BURST OF ENTHUSIASM
The BusinessNZ-BNZ service sector PSI for October surprised with a strong expansion reported. Given the slip into contraction by factories in the same month, it is unlikely the surveyers saw this coming. The two key sub-indexes of new activity/sales (61.0) and new orders/business (59.9) remained in a very healthy position and employment (57.0) experienced its highest level of activity since April 2021. In line with an improvement in expansion levels, the proportion of positive comments for October (55.4%) was up in September (47.9%). BusinessNZ tried to play the improvement down - it doesn't fit their theme public policy settings are hurting business, but clearly they are not, in the services sector anyway. We are doing way, way better than the global PSI measures.
PRIVATE MARKETS
For investor readers who may have overlooked some of our regular resources, recall we have detailed options listed on the page that sets out Secondary opportunities for many private markets, like farm funds and syndications, commercial property funds, etc. You can find them here. It is an effective way to connect to sellers who wish to quit a long-term private investment, of if you have one that needs to be sold, a place to do that too. The good thing about these listings is that they are connected to a robust and professional platform that ensures deals occur properly.
ASB HEAD OF BUSINESS BANKING QUITS
ASB says Tim Deane, its executive general manager of business banking, is leaving the bank. His last day will be February 10 next year with ASB to "undertake a process" to appoint his successor. ASB says Deane wants to focus on investments in the NZ food and fibre sector, and focus on the not-for-profit sector.
MORE GOVT FUNDING, AT 4.5%
The Treasury announced the launch of a new 4.25% coupon 15 May 2034 nominal green bond. Given the timing of the launch, it cancelled the tender scheduled for Thursday, November 17 2022. They expect to issue at least $2.0 bln of this maturity and the transaction will be capped at $3 bln. Initial price guidance is 5 to 8 basis points over the 14 April 2033 nominal bond, so they expect to pay about 4.5% pa, given that it was last tendered on November 3, at an average yield of 4.44% ap.
MORE CORPORATE FUNDING, AT 8.9%
EastPack, the largest post-harvest operator in the New Zealand kiwifruit industry and one of the country’s largest cooperatives, today announced that it intends to raise $30 mln via an issue of five-year subordinated bonds to New Zealand investors. They have the ability to take oversubscriptions of up to $10 mln. The minimum interest rate for the Notes will be 8.5% pa, paid quarterly in arrears. The interest rate is set annually and will be set at the higher of the minimum rate or the five-year government bond plus 4.5%. The initial interest rate is 8.9% pa.
BIG UPS, AND ONE BIG DOWN
Equity markets finished last week on a positive note, including by the NZX50. It's capitalisation rose +0.7%, on top of some prior weekly gains to that it is now +4.0% higher than a month ago. Last week, F&P Healthcare (FPH, #1) rose +2.3% and remains the only listed company with capitalisation higher than $10 bln. A2 Milk (ATM, #9) rose +9.3% for the week, and EBOS (EBO, #4) rose +7.0%. These heavyweights were trumped by Eroad (ERD, #50) up +19.5% followed by Pacific Edge (PEB, #41) up +10.6%. There were few significant falls, but the Property, Retirement Home, and Energy sectors all struggled. Manawa Energy (ex-TrustPower, MNW, #44) shed an eye-popping -10% of its capitalisation in just one week.
A SMALL PECK OF THE FLP
On Friday, $35 mln was drawn on the Funding for Lending program, taking the total to $16.9 bln. It won't be a major bank who took this latest draw.
INLAND FLOODING REDUX
In Australia, flash flooding is causing extreme stress in rural NSW, with evacuations ordered in a number of centers. The impacts on the NSW rural economy will be huge.
SWAP RATES TURN UP
Wholesale swap rates may have turned around and risen some today, but the real action comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +2 bps at 4.15%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.76% and up +8 bps. The China 10 year bond rate has zoomed up to 2.82% with an unusual +7 bps jump. That takes it to its highest four months. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.36%, and up +7 bps and back well above the RBNZ fix for the NZGB 10 year which up +4 bps at 4.27%. The UST 10 year is now at 3.90% and up +9 bps from this morning.
EQUITIES UNSURE WHICH WAY THIS WEEK
The NZX50 traded little-changed this morning, but has started to slip away in later trade today, heading for a -0.7% fall. The ASX200 gave up some early gains to be flat in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.4%. But Hong Kong is roaring, up +2.8% in very early trade on persistent rumours that China's official hard-line on Covid will in fact just be for show. They have a lot riding on that bet. Meanwhile, Shanghai is more modest about it, up +0.6% in early trade. The S&P500 futures suggests that Wall Street will open very little changed tomorrow.
GOLD DIPS
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1764/oz and down -US$7 from where we opened this morning.
NZD STAYS UP
The Kiwi dollar is slightly lower at 61 USc slipping -20 bps from this morning. Against the AUD we are unchanged at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we also unchanged at 9.1 euro cents from this morning. That all means our TWI-5 is now at 69.9 and very little-changed from where we opened.
BITCOIN SLIPS
Bitcoin is now at US$16,037 and down -3.2% from this morning's open. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/- 2.8%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
Daily swap rates
Select chart tabs
This soil moisture chart is animated here.
Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».
21 Comments
They will have to more than nudge them, 5% now offered by quite a few, including Kiwibank with the implicit government guarantee. I expect to see most banks with 5% TDs by dec. On a side note, I am hearing of alot of properties selling this month in Auckland with big drops in price. Last chance to get a settlement before next Feb.
It will take a while before the funding for lending effect will wear off because loan growth is low. Plus there is the steady kiwisaver cash coming into banks at the normal incredibly low interest rates.
But competition will eventually arrive next year sometime. Tempered by the slowing economy. So I am going really short with my term deposits at the moment.
About this time last year, borrowers didn't want to lock in at 2.99% for 5 years, because they thought % rates were going lower.
Perhaps it's the turn of depositors to ask themselves the reverse question right about now? 5% for 5 years might look good in 12 months time.
5% 1 year TD's will be here before Christmas at all the top 4 banks. FLP ends 6th December, another OCR hike 23rd November. I anticipate rates being to be pretty stable next year but will make the call in Feb and go 6 months if future hikes look likely and inflation is still not under control. I'm making a 6% TD 1 year rate call for March after the long Christmas break and the RBNZ has to hike again Feb.
When I say cutting rates by the election, I am only talking 25-50BPs from a peak OCR of somewhere between 5-5.5%. It will make minimal difference, and will simply be signalling/symbolic. It would take multiple cuts to an OCR back down to 3% or lower to meaningfully stimulate the housing market.
I think the OCR will be somewhere between 3 and 3.5% by the end of 2024.
The Treasury announced the launch of a new 4.25% coupon 15 May 2034 nominal green bond. Given the timing of the launch, it cancelled the tender scheduled for Thursday, November 17 2022. They expect to issue at least $2.0 bln of this maturity and the transaction will be capped at $3 bln. Initial price guidance is 5 to 8 basis points over the 14 April 2033 nominal bond, so they expect to pay about 4.5% pa, given that it was last tendered on November 3, at an average yield of 4.44% ap.
The declared syndicate banks will purchase these securities from the government and credit what they owe to the Crown Settlement Account at the RBNZ, on settlement date. Bank Settlement Accounts will be debited the same amount until the government dispenses these so called "deposits" into the bank accounts of authorised beneficiaries.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.