Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Nothing changed today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
BNZ raised some TD rates for most fixed terms 6 months to 5 years. But not for a one year term which stayed at 4.50%. Importantly however, they raised their 6 month rate to 4.00%, the first major bank to do so for that term.
ONE MONTH'S DATA INTERUPTS A TREND
The REINZ House Price Index shows prices increased in October but that doesn't mean it's a trend. But the October rise brought an end to almost a year of steady declines. But picking where they'll go from here is not for the faint-hearted.
COMPARING MORTGAGE FEES
In the fourth of a series of articles on bank fees, Matt Skinner looks at the mortgage fees the major banks charge, a useful reference record.
LOWER GEARING
New borrowers' debt-to-income ratios are still falling fast. The latest quarterly Reserve Bank figures show new mortgage borrowers are gearing themselves up notably less than has been seen in recent years.
DAIRY PRICES RISE
Dairy prices at the overnight auction rose +2.4% in USD terms but were -3.1% lower in NZD terms. Analysts saw some of this gain as buyers filling up on the lower prices over the past six weeks. China demand was light however. Local analysts looked past the NZD fall and have held their farmgate payout forecasts for 2022/2023.
IMPROVING AUDIT QUALITY
The FMA’s Audit Quality Monitoring Report for 2021/22, says audit firms have made improvements since previous reviews but audit quality remains inconsistent between firms. Auditors have better documented their judgements about accounting estimates and how they applied professional scepticism, continuing the trend from previous years.
A HESITANT START TO Q4
Japanese machinery orders fell -3.3% in September from a month ago, ending the quarter on quite a weak note and contributing to their GDP slip. However, they are expecting a strong rebound in Q4 and the October data kicks that off. However, the sub-sector machine tool order levels in October didn't show an increase from September, so the official forecast effect is yet to show up.
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SWAP RATES SETTLE SLIGHTLY LOWER
Wholesale swap rates may be slightly softer today, but the real action comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 4.15%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.70% and down -4 bps. The China 10 year bond rate has settled to 2.83% and down -2 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.23%, and down another -7 bps and now below the RBNZ fix for the NZGB 10 year which down a rather sharp -14 bps at 4.19%. The UST 10 year is now at 3.78% and down another -8 bps from this time yesterday.
EQUITY RISES HALTED BY MISSILE
The S&P500 ended its Tuesday trade up +0.9% and making back all of Monday's dip. Tokyo has opened down -0.8%. Hong Kong has opened down -0.9%. Shanghai has opened down -0.3%. The 'Russian' missile landing in Poland has raised risk aversion suddenly. The ASX200 is down -0.5% in early afternoon trade. The NZX50 is up another +0.2% late in the Wednesday session.
GOLD STAYS FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1775/oz and up +US$5 from this time yesterday.
NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar is +½c higher than this time yesterday at 61.5 USc. Against the AUD we are unchanged at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we firm at 59.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is now at 70.3 and up +40 bps from this time yesterday.
BITCOIN FIRMS
Bitcoin is now at US$16,810 and up +1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest also at just over +/- 1.5%.
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43 Comments
About four in five consumers now describe buying conditions for homes as bad, a record in data going back to 1978, according to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey for November. The number of people who attribute the erosion in conditions to higher interest rates is at the highest level in 40 years, figures showed Friday.
Some are even saying 'worse time in recorded modern economic history of the U.S.'
Just as well things in Aotearoa Rugbyland are diff'runt.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/worst-time-buy-home-generation-173852032…
One thing to keep in mind is that the US mortgage market is quite different to ours, 30 year mortgages are probably the most common.
People that bought recently, or refinanced an older mortgage may have rates of around 3% for that term, locked in for the whole period. However to buy a new house they would get bumped to current rates of 7%, which is a massive increase in repayments.
Unlike NZ where depending on how long you fixed for you move to the current interest rates in 1-5 years, in the USA your interest rate never goes up, though you can refinance down to a degree.
So even if people wanted to move, even to downsize, your repayments will go up a lot, so there's a huge financial penalty to losing that low rate that you have locked up deterring people from moving.
This didn't happen during the GFC as interest rates were reduced to handle that. Prices in the US have also started to fall after a massive rise over the last 10 years with a spike up like ours during the pandemic: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
"Even using basic probability" can you please explain what you mean by that?
Quite simple. If you take the entire history of BTC at look at say the daily price at 5 pm (NZT), the probability of the price being at zero is <0.01% (guesstimate).
How else are you going to estimate the probability? I'm open ears.
Is BTC going to hang out at $16k for a while before its next plunge?
Whisker off $17k at the moment.
Largest movement of BTC off exchanges ever this week. The majority of BTC for sale is on centralized exchanges. Large open interest short positions on BTC held by hedgies. They better hope they don't get squeezed.
Anecdotally, I'm seeing houses stopped at wrapped-in stage. One the grass is now so long you can't see the site sign. One is Kianga ora, I'm told.
Don't worry, Parker is back in the Triassic period, land supply for everyone, 2nd airports everywhere, Minister can override if money is at stake. Sounds like Luxon, come to think of it.
Not so much greenfields as baby-shit-brown ones.
We'll be hunky-dory,
For ever and ever
Ah, men......
Klaus Schwab says "You'll own nothing" — And "you'll be happy about it." - a global co-governance initiative?
NZ Tiny Homes goes into liquidation leaving customers with unfinished homes
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/130486707/nz-tiny-homes-goes-…
For those ones I see a ray of light.
They are almost certainly "only" 2 story developments. And cannot be financially viably changed to being 3 storey. The consent would have to be thrown away and the foundations would have to be broken up and completely replaced to be strong enough for a 3 storey development. Its cast in now. (If anything ever eventuates).
Atlas Property? Website is "under maintenance".
Sale of New Zealand Government Securities
DescriptionDetails
Sale date15 Nov 2022, Settlement date17 Nov 2022
NZGBs sold 15-May-2041, Amount sold ($m)415
I'm no fan of Donald Trump, the man, but I am of his capacity to rattle the establishment beehive.
And from what I saw today, he's pretty much thrown his chances of getting the Republican nomination. So what next?
A Third Party/Independent run, that splits party voters? That's doomed to traditional failure (think Ralph Nader or Ross Perot) unless....he takes Tulsi Gabbard on as his VP running mate? Disillusioned ex Democrat with her own following, and appears to be smart-as.
Anyway, let's see how it unfolds.
That’s the problem. That’s Trump’s ace. If you don’t nominate me, I run as an independent and split your vote. The dems win by default and there will be no gravy in the trough for you snouts. Politics aside the criminal & federal cases proceeding presently, might be the nobble to cauterise the campaign.
I am of his capacity to rattle the establishment beehive.
You should be more aware of people's ability to gaslight for their own self promotion.
Some people admire Putin for the same reasons,
oh look at the West, decadent and corrupt, they have lost their way. Only my brand of kleptocracy can save you!
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