A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; few retail rate changes, Barfoot sales activity sinks, commodity prices fall, new car sales stay high, swaps slip, NZD holds high, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
We are still waiting for BNZ to change either fixed or floating rates after most of their rivals moved last week. Para Loan adjusted their rates today. Updates: BNZ has raised its floating rate, but only by +45 bps to 7.74%, which makes it the lowest of any main bank (lower now than Kiwibank). Separately, the Co-operative Bank has raised fixed rates.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
First Credit Union raised some rates today.

PERSONAL LOAN RATE CHANGES
Unity Money have increased their secured personal loan rates by another +1.0% and their unsecured personal loan rates by another +1% today. Recall, they last raised these rates on Tuesday, November 22, 2022.

A 12 YEAR LOW
Barfoot & Thompson reported that their November sales volumes were down -41% compared with the same month a year ago. This is a 12 year low for a November month. Their listing inventory is at an 11 year high. Prices for dwellings that do sell have been stable over the past few months.

COMMODITY PRICES SAG
Commodity prices fell in November with a big sag. In world price terms they were down -11.5% year-on-year. But in NZD terms the change is actually very small. But the recent rise in the NZD in December won't be helpful going forward of those world prices stay lower.

THE SHIFT TO NEVs WELL PAST THE TRIGGER POINT
New car sales came in unchanged in November from the same month a year ago, but that remains a high level at 11,175 and matching the year's best month (March). 76% of these are SUV's but with the rise of the Tesla Model 3 (a sedan), that is keeping the SUV category from pushing higher. But used imports are really struggling to match past glories. The shift to hybrids and EVs isn't helping this class of import. These used imports registered just 7,149 cars, the lowest since May and a rather large -37% retreat from year-ago levels.

BUSINESSES PULL BACK
Commercial vehicles sales fell yet again, and are now running at less than a 50,000 annual rate, its slowest level in 2017 (if you ignore the pandemic period).

CLIPPED BY REGULATION
Westpac joins other banks in changing credit card rewards schemes with a new tiered system, as regulation of revenue banks receive from interchange fees kicks-in

MORE TRADE, LOWER PROFITS
In Australia, they reported that company profits fell an unexpected -12% in Q3-2022 from Q2, missing market expectations of a small growth, and following an upwardly revised +7.8% rise in Q2. This was the first decline in company profits since the fourth quarter of 2020, amid falling commodity prices. Inventories rose almost +8%.

DANGERS RISE AS NO GOOD OPTIONS LEFT
In China, more big tier 1 cities are easing pandemic restrictions. There is clearly a revised approach to pandemic control underway there, and it comes as case numbers rise sharply. China missed some good options by dismissing Western vaccines.

SWAP RATES SLIP
Wholesale swap rates were likely lower today on global trends. The real action comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +2 bps at 4.45%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.38% and and up +4 bps from this morning. The China 10 year bond rate is at 2.94% and back up +2 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.00%, and down -3 bps today and similar to the earlier RBNZ fix for the NZGB 10 year which is down -4 bps to 3.99%. The UST 10 year is now at 3.53% and up +4 bps from this morning's open although little-changed from where it ended last week.

EQUITIES MIXED
After last week's good gains, the NZX50 has started this week slightly lower, down -0.3%. The ASX200 is up +0.4% in early afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened little-changed. Hong Kong is still excited about the prospect of eased pandemic restrictions in China and has opened up another +2.3%. Shanghai has opened up +0.8%. Wall Street futures suggest that the S&P500 will open tomorrow down a minor -0.2%.

GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1803/oz and up +US$5 from this morning.

NZD HOLDS
The Kiwi dollar has firmed from this morning's open, now at 64.2 USc. But against the AUD we are down to 94 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 60.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 is now at 72.3 and little-changed

BITCOIN FIRMS
Bitcoin is now at US$17,202 and up +1.1% from where we were this morning. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.0%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».