A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; BNZ raises less than rivals, real estate agents gloomy; construction peaks, mountains of cash lying around, swaps firm, NZD slips, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ raised fixed rates today, but less than their rivals. More here. The Cooperative Bank also raised all fixed rates. And three buildings societies did too, Wairarapa, Nelson and Heretaunga. Update: SBS Bank has now raised all its floating, fixed, and reverse equity rates

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
Those same three building societies also all raised term deposit rates (independent of each other), as did NZCU Auckland. Update: SBS Bank has raised almost all its savings and TD rates.

AGENTS THINK HOUSE PRICES ON WAY DOWN
House prices are expected to resume their downward trajectory according to the latest survey of agents by Tony Alexander and REINZ. They are anticipating another wave of house price falls in the new year.

CONTRUCTION PEAKED?
A record $9.3 bln of construction work was completed in the September quarter, taking the annual total to $33 bln, both new records. $5.6 bln was new residential construction ($20 bln for the full year). Of that $3.6 bln was in Auckland ($13 bln for the year). Will it continue? It seems unlikely with Infometrics observing that "residential activity [will decline] more rapidly as the downturn in the housing market filters through to consent numbers and building activity".

NZ FINTECH COLLAPSES
NZ Fintech Group, which owns high-cost high-risk lenders moola.co.nz and Zooma car finance is being liquidated after failing. Controlled by Edward Recordan of Christchurch, the Group went on a funding binge to scale up. But ironically, its debts overwhelmed it. (Interest.co.nz refused to take any ads for NZ Fintech when they were pitching for public subscriptions.)

DOMINANCE UNDER REGULATORY ATTACK
The Commerce Commission has found that rebates paid to merchants to sell building supplies like GIB are hampering competition. The focus is squarely on Fletcher Building and its strategies to hold on to its dominant position.

A LOT LYING AROUND
According to a new RBNZ survey, more of us are using cash to pay for everyday things, and less of us are using credit cards. The use of cash is now up to 50% of the population, having started at 47% at the beginning of the year. For credit cards, it started at 46% and slipped to 44% by December. But now 80% of us use debit cards for those everyday transactions which is a new high, and 16% of us swipe with our phone digital wallet. Interestingly, more than 22% of us no longer have a personal store of cash, and 28% of us have less than $50 stored somewhere. 29% of us have between $50 and $500 stored for a rainy day. 6% have $500-$1000 stored, 5% have $100-$5000 stored, and 2.4% of us are hoarding more than $5000 in cash notes & coins. That equates to about 130,000 people with more than $5000 salted away at "home" for emergencies, in total probably more than $6 bln. That seems rather a lot just lying around.

EYES ON THE RBA
Markets are awaiting the RBA rate decision at 4:30pm today. We will update this item when the result is known. a +25 bps rise is expected taking the current 2.85% rate to 3.10%. Update: The RBA did indeed raise its cash rate target by +25 bps to 3.10%.

AUSSIE RURAL SECTOR HITS ITS STRAPS
We all know of the damage storms have caused on Australia south east states. But La Niña will push farm gate output there to a near-record AU$85 bln this year as those problems are offset by almost perfect conditions elsewhere.

SWAP RATES FIRM
Wholesale swap rates were likely firmer today on global trends. The real action comes near the close however. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 4.45%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.36% and and down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is at 2.94% and unchanged. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.03%, and up +3 bps and now above to the earlier RBNZ fix for the NZGB 10 year which is down -2 bps to 3.97%. The UST 10 year is now at 3.57% and up +4 bps from this time yesterday.

EQUITIES LOWER
The NZX50 is down -0.4% in late trade. The ASX200 is -0.3% lower in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened opened flat (+0.1%). Hong Kong has given up -0.6% after yesterday's bull run. And Shanghai is down -0.2% in early trade there. Wall Street ended lower in Monday trade today, with the S&P500 down -1.8% at the end.

GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1775/oz and down -US$28 from this time yesterday.

NZD SLIPS
The Kiwi dollar has retreated from yesterday's heights, now at 63.4 USc and down -¾c. But it was down more than that earlier, and a partial recovery is underway this afternoon. Against the AUD we are up to 94.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down at 60.3 euro cents and a -½c fall. That all means our TWI-5 is now at 71.9 and down -40 bps from this time yesterday

BITCOIN HOLDS
Bitcoin is now at US$17,055 and down -0.9% from where we were this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.6%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by following our Economic Calendar here ».