A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; some TD changes, annual deaths spike by 10%, a lot of corporate profit news some good some not, more cyclone impacts, swaps mixed, NZD still soft, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
ICBC has raised rates through its entire offering, with short terms (under six months) hiked by 55-60 basis points, while longer terms have been tweaked by 5-15 bps.

Heretaunga Building Society has moved up its three-month rate.

DEATHS SPIKE BY 10% IN 2022
Stats NZ says the number of deaths registered during 2022 was 38,574, up 3,642 (10.4%) from the previous year. It says the increased number of deaths in 2022 was impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic and points to Covid-19 Trends and Insights, published by Manatū Hauora Ministry of Health, which states that just under 2,400 deaths in 2022 were identified as people who died with the cause of death being attributable to Covid-19. Separately Stats NZ says there were 58,887 live births registered last year, which was 228 (0.4%) more than in 2021. The latest figure results in a natural increase (live births minus deaths) of 20,313 for 2022.  Annual births have been just below 60,000 since 2016. Stats NZ says based on death rates during 2020–2022, a newborn boy can expect to live, on average, 80.5 years, and a newborn girl 84.0 years. 

RYMAN REAPS $542 MILLION CAPITAL AND COUNTING
Retirement village operator Ryman Healthcare [RYM], which is seeking $902 million from shareholders to repay debt, says it has successfully completed the institutional part of the offer, raising $542 million and is now moving on to the 'retail offer' part of the capital raising, which is set to open on Tuesday. The Ryman shares started trading again on Monday after being halted last week for the capital raising and they were, in afternoon trade, down 37c at $5.66 - still above the $5 capital raising offer price.

SUMMERSET LOOKS TO $175 MILLION DEBT
Ryman's looking for more capital to replace debt - but rival retirement village operator Summerset's [SUM] looking for more debt. It is considering (which means it will do it barring something very untoward happening) an offer of up to $125 million (with the ability to accept up to an additional $50 million of oversubscriptions at Summerset’s discretion) of six year, fixed-rate bonds to New Zealand investors. Full details and opening of the offer expected next Monday. ANZ Bank New Zealand Limited (ANZ) is Arranger, and ANZ, Craigs Investment Partners Limited, Forsyth Barr Limited and Jarden Securities Limited are Joint Lead Managers and Hobson Wealth Partners Limited is a Co-Manager in relation to the proposed offer.

a2 MILK PROFIT RISES, SHARE PRICE SINKS
The a2 Milk Company [ATM] has announced what it says is "a strong half-year performance in a very challenging market" along with "continued improvement in execution against its refreshed growth strategy". The company's looking to bounce back from disappointing results in recent years that have required a lot of reorganisation. In the latest half it said net profit rose 22.1% to $68.5 million on revenue that increased 18.6% to $783.3 million.  The company highlighted a 43.5% increase to $271 million in sales of its China label infant milk formula - this in a country that saw continued decline in birth numbers and with the overall infant milk formula market sales shrinking by 12.5%. However, investors obviously wanted more. At time of writing the a2 share price was down 55c at $7.20 - though that's still nearly $2 up in the past 12 months. 

FREIGHTWAYS DELIVERS 3.5% PROFIT RISE
Yes, profit reporting season is with us in earnest. Courier firm Freightways [FRE] was also reporting on Monday and it achieved a 3.5% rise in after-tax, half-year, profits to $45.2 million - after revenues had actually gained a touch under 25% to $552.1 million. Some big ticket costs, including an 18.6% rise in employee benefits and 46.1% rise in general and administrative expenses offset a fair portion of the revenue gain. "Freightways’ half year result benefited from its diversification across our four key pick up, process and delivery activities and tw0 geographies despite an environment of higher interest rates, slower growth and higher labour costs," the company said. Its price shed 10c to $9.74.  

CHORUS PROFITS DROP TO $9 MILLION
Joining the chorus of results was, er, Chorus [CNU], with a $33 million drop in interim net profit after tax to $9 million primarily due to increasing interest rates and some one-off costs associated with the refinancing of "a large tranche of debt". Revenue was static at $487 million. The company said the widespread community devastation caused by the recent cyclones means it is having to reprioritise some work so it can focus on restoration efforts. The share price dropped 11c to $8.26. 

HEARTLAND GIVES ITSELF MORE TIME
Heartland Group's also reporting half-year earnings, just not quite when it said. The company had intended to report on February 23, but has shifted that to February 28. "Heartland’s employees have been personally impacted by the recent severe weather events in Auckland and the upper North Island. This has affected the completion of the internal processes required to finalise Heartland’s 1H2023 financial statements. The board considers that delaying the announcement date will provide the additional time needed to complete these processes," the company said. It added that there was no change to its guidance for statutory reported net profit after tax for the full 2023 year and expects this to be within the range of $109 million to $114 million.

SCALES WITHDRAWS GUIDANCE
Heartland have delayed - but agribusiness group Scales Corporation has withdrawn profit guidance altogether after cyclone damage to its operations in Hawkes Bay. "Of our Group operations, the material impact at this time is to Mr Apple’s orchards. The initial assessment is that this impact covers four of their 15 orchards (of the four damaged orchards, three have extensive damage and one moderate). Further limited crop damage is also anticipated to the remaining orchards from the effects of the cyclonic event. Scales does not hold crop insurance for this event," the company said.

NZIER 'SHADOW BOARD' RECOMMENDS 50-POINT OFFICIAL CASH RATE RISE
The economists, academics and business people that make up the NZIER's 'Shadow Board' are recommending that the Reserve Bank continue increasing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) on Wednesday, with a broad view that there should be a 50 basis-points increase in the OCR (taking it to 4.75%).

SWAP RATES LOOKING MIXED
Wholesale swap rates are likely fairly mixed. But the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down 2 bps at 5.01%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.82% and down 1 bp. The China 10 year bond rate is up 1 bp at 2.91%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.39% and up 1 bps. The UST 10 year was at 3.82% over the weekend.

EQUITIES UP, NZ DOWN
The S&P500 ended down 0.3% on Wall Street over the weekend. Tokyo has opened very slightly higher in morning trade. Hong Kong is up 0.3% at its open. Shanghai is up 0.7% at its open. The ASX200 is up 0.1% so far in early afternoon trade. The NZX50 is faring much the worst thus far, down 1.6% on the back of some of the reported results and the cyclone damage updates.

GOLD FLAT
In early Asian trade, gold is at around US$1842, which is up on where it was going into the weekend, but about flat on Monday.

NZD SLIDES A LITTLE FURTHER
The Kiwi dollar is at 62.39 USc, down very slightly on where it was early Monday. Against the Aussie we are marginally softer at 90.62 AUc. Against the euro we are also slightly weaker at 58.4 euro cents. The TWI is now at just under 70.1 and down from 70.2 at the weekend.

BITCOIN VOLATILE
The bitcoin price is having a volatile afternoon. At time of writing it was at about $24,300, and staging something of a rally. However, it was still down around 1.6% in the past 24 hours. But, it's still up about 11% in the past seven days. 

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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