Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today.
TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
HSBC has raised rates for terms up to an including a year, with the biggest movements applied to shorter terms, the three-month rate going up 65 bps, while the one-year is raised 15 bps.
GOVERNMENT APPOINTS 'LEAD MINISTERS' FOR CYCLONE RESPONSE
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has announced details of a Cabinet Committee and regional Ministerial leads to help coordinate the Central Government response and recovery from Cyclone Gabrielle. The move was foreshadowed on Monday. The new Extreme Weather Recovery Committee will be chaired by Grant Robertson as Minister for Cyclone Recovery, with Barbara Edmonds as deputy. Hipkins and Emergency Management Minister Kieran McAnulty will also be members. Megan Woods will be responsible for infrastructure and housing. Deputy Prime Minister Carmel Sepuloni will be responsible for the social sector and Māori Development Minister Willie Jackson and Associate Agriculture Minister Meka Whaitiri will also be members – each of whom will have responsibilities overseeing the recovery in these areas. The committee will meet for the first time next week. The Ministerial leads are Northland - Kelvin Davis, Auckland and Coromandel - Michael Wood, Waikato - Nanaia Mahuta, Tairāwhiti and Bay of Plenty - Kiri Allan, Hawke’s Bay - Stuart Nash, Tararua and Wairarapa - Kieran McAnulty. Separately, McAnulty announced a further contribution to mayoral funds.
'WET WEATHER HAS DEFINED THE PERIOD'
He can say that again. Mercury [MCY] chief executive Vince Hawkesworth, in releasing the company's half-year results, said Mercury's hydro production was up 852GWh (compared with the same period a year ago) to a record 2,735GWh after Lake Taupō experienced its highest ever inflows for the July to December period. "In addition to producing the highest hydro generation volume in our company’s history, another 675GWh was spilled to maintain lakes within Resource Consent operating limits," he said. The company announced interim after-tax profits of $230 million, well down on the $427 million for the same period a year ago - but that previous figure was boosted by a one-off gain in sale of the company's Tilt Renewables shares. Mercury has maintained its forecast of $795 million of operating earnings (that's pre-tax) for the full year to June 2023.
'...CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED AS CATASTROPHIC'
Comvita's top brass have been out having a look at the company's Hawkes Bay facilities after the cyclone hit, and it's not good. "Our own facility has suffered extensive damage and our working hypothesis is that the site will be written off in its entirety. Naturally, we have full insurance cover in place and do not anticipate any material impact on our financial results," the company said. "From an operational perspective as previously advised, we have moved extraction to one of our other facilities and apart from the significant disruption in Hawkes Bay, we do not expect any material impact to our daily operations. We will provide further updates in due course."
'...WATER AND CONNECTIVITY ISSUES PRESENT MAJOR CHALLENGES'
Medicinal cannabis company Rua Bioscience says its Gisborne head office and manufacturing facility are closed. "Neither site sustained damage, but water and connectivity issues present major challenges. Members of these teams are working remotely as far as is practical and volunteering within the community. Rua has ample stocks of medicine available through our distributor in Christchurch and we do not expect supply disruptions," the company says. Rua’s R&D facility at Ruatorea remains operational. The company's main cultivation supply is off-shore and has not been impacted. Rua says it is "not able to determine the impact on business moving forward" and will provide updates as relevant information comes to hand.
'...WE WANT TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE IMPACT ON OUR CUSTOMERS FROM THE EXTREME WEATHER'
Vector [VCT] chair Jonathan Mason says the company's network "has experienced significant damage with restorations complicated by the extent and complexity of the damage, road access and on-going slips. Our teams have worked tirelessly and will continue to do so until all of our customers have their power back." The company announced a 13.2% drop in half-year, after tax, profit to $100.3 million.
'...NOT BEEN DAMAGED SIGNIFICANTLY'
Delegat's says things are not looking too bad at its Hawke’s Bay winery and vineyards and it is continuing to assess the impact on equipment and infrastructure at these sites. "We now have access to our Crownthorpe vineyard and we are working towards further improving this access over the course of this week. We are on track for a successful harvest in Hawke's Bay commencing around the end of February. A further update will be provided with Delegat’s interim results, scheduled for Friday, February 24," the company said.
TEENAGE BIRTHS HALVED IN LAST DECADE
The number of teenage women in New Zealand giving birth has more than halved over the last decade, according to Stats NZ. There were 1,719 births registered to teenage women (those aged under 20 years) in 2022, accounting for around 1 in every 34 births that year. In 2012, there were 3,786 births registered to teenage mothers, accounting for around 1 in every 16 births that year. "The decreasing number of teenage births coincides with improved education and access to contraception," Stats NZ's estimates and projections manager Michael MacAskill said. In 1972, when teenage births peaked, 9,150 teenage women gave birth, accounting for around 1 in every 7 births that year.
HEARTLAND CHAIRPERSON STEPS DOWN
Heartland Group Holdings [HGH] advises that Geoff Ricketts is stepping down as chairperson of Heartland with immediate effect for an indefinite period due to ill health, but will remain as a director. Greg Tomlinson, Heartland’s deputy chairperson, will assume the role of chairperson, subject to board approval.
SWAP RATES LOOKING HIGHER
Wholesale swap rates are likely up quite a bit on Tuesday. But the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up 2 bps at 5.03%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.85% and up 4 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is up 3 bps at 2.95%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.45% and up 8 bps. The UST 10 year is up 3 bps at 3.86%.
EQUITIES MOSTLY DOWN
The S&P500 ended down 0.3% on Wall Street over the long holiday weekend. Tokyo is very slightly down in morning trade. Hong Kong is down by 0.6% at its open. Shanghai is up 0.4% at its open. The ASX200 is down 0.3% so far in early afternoon trade. The NZX50 is following up Monday's down-with-a-thump fall of over 2% with some further, slightly more modest, easing, down 0.6%.
GOLD GOES SIDEWAYS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is hovering around US$1842-3, which is pretty much where it was at this time on Monday.
NZD SLIGHTLY STRONGER
The Kiwi dollar is at 62.54 USc, pretty much exactly where it was overnight - but a bit higher than this time on Monday. Against the Aussie we are marginally higher from overnight, but about the same as this time on Monday, at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are a little higher at 58.6 euro cents. The TWI is now at over 70.2 and up from 70.1 on Monday.
BITCOIN FANCIES US$25K
Bitcoin has flirted with the US$25,000 mark during the day and at time of writing was at about US$25,025. This is up 3% from this time yesterday and 15% higher in the past seven days.
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91 Comments
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/02/national-mp-maureen-pug…
Let's hope there's no Minister Pugh in the line up. Obviously still a bit to flush out there.
National are really mediocre. I actually think Labour has better personnel, and that is really saying something……,
Deputy Willis looks good to roll him. I'd say 50/50 chance actually happening.
I don’t rate her either, in fact I think Luxon is better than her.
Yeah totally. But you can smell the fear on him, Luxon will struggle to debate Hipkins, the pressure is gotta be enormous.
Tell me what has hipkins done in his life. Answer, not much
... as minister of education he shut down the charter schools , regardless that the pupils & parents loved them ...
... as minister of Covid19 he promised us we were " at the front of the queue " for Pfizer vaccines ... when in fact we were 6 months behind everyone else ...
So , he scores highly as a fool & a downright liar ...
I agree, it is quite disappointing.
I heard luxon in parliament today. One big moan…..and nows he’s back in the news with Maureen Pugh for all the wrong reasons if you are looking for votes.
to suggest they have anything to offer would require some imagination. to think they would be better managers is laughable
what a team….Pugh,Brownlee,Collins, Uffindel,Muller
No,no. Luxon believes in the philosophy of sending a strongly worded note to anyone that step out of line.
"He said he would be giving Pugh a set of books to read on the matter: “books that I have read, so that she has a fuller understanding...."
Books he's read, like "How to Become CEO" by Jeffrey Fox perhaps?
Or perhaps "How to Become a Sir" by J. Key.
You joke, but I have a business acquaintance who insists on referring to John Key as Sir John Key during any conversation where his name is mentioned, and even corrects others who fail to show sufficient deference.
For example, if I were to say "John Key was an ok prime minister" he would instantly say "don't you mean Sir John Key".
If it were a drinking game I'd be dead already.
... where I drink , if you refer to " Sir Tugger " everyone knows who you mean ...
..tell me where..sounds like my kinda drinking buddies!
That is monumentally funny !
Agreed (although Labour does have the likes of Stuart “Mongrel Mob” Nash and Willie “Democracy’s Changed” Jackson) … but the shallowness of talent in the National Party is so bad it’s actually impressive.
However, Labour’s probably going to need TPM’s support, and they have some truly looney positions, and I truly can’t decide which is worse.
It’s like picking between two things on a menu that you know will disappoint.
Labour will require the Greens & TMP to form a majority coalition government. Last time the Greens expected to obtain cabinet positions. They were though thwarted by the electorate. Next time they will get cabinet positions. That means extreme left policy such as the wealth tax will be seriously on the table as it was last election as a prerequisite for any coalition. The electorate will need to consider very carefully the prospect of a government led by Labour with an unruly Maori caucus, combined with the unknown quantity and far left policy emanating from both the Greens and TMC. It will indeed be interesting to observe the run up to the election and how all of these factions will present themselves as a viable combination to form a credible and stable government.
What I don't yet understand is how Hipkins' move rightwards to the centre works from the perspective of selling the idea to the electorate) with the fact that Labour is basically going to need the more extreme left in the Greens, and the even more extreme left in TPM.
If anything sinks Labour I think it will be this. I am not a fan (nor am I fan of National) but Hipkins is clearly the better performer compared with Luxon, who is the most disappointing thing since McDonalds brought back the McFlurry.
However, the thought of having the Greens and TPM calling the shots is probably enough to motivate me to avoid Labour, even if National is running the equivalent of a manilla envelope for prime minister. Especially as I can't help but think Greens and TPM will announce all sort of batsh*t crazy policies to the adoration of the party faithful in the lead up to the election.
The greens are still considered batsh*t crazy? It kinda feels like they may have been right all along don’t you think?
.
Greens happen to be on "Right" side history for sure. When it comes to climate change.
Nope - because they have wasted political capital on mitigation instead of focusing on adaptation -and now we will all pay the price for being ill prepared
They are doing both, we have a national adaption plan and a national emissions reduction plan, albeit still in draft.
Expect to see ACT rise in the polls as previously occurred during Collins’s ill fated and hapless leadership. As well as Seymour being adroit and effective in the debating chamber his team around him have advanced and sharpened markedly during this term. It is likely the prospective junior coalition partner will outperform and outmuscle the senior and that is going to be another interesting scenario to observe this election run up.
I was invited to an event recently where Seymour was speaking; while I didn't agree with everything he had to say, he was a good speaker, was very adept at answering questions (even more challenging ones relating to issues such as the vaccine mandates) and was also rather entertaining. I came away impressed, but also frustrated that in effect he plays second fiddle to Luxon/National, which now seems to be a party trading only on brand recognition and not much else. It's the fact that you can't have one without the other that is the biggest turn off.
I would have thought that Labour could move as for right as they want (as long as it is to the left of National). Like what are the greens and TPM going to do, get in government without them?
... are " wealth taxes " extreme left policy ?
I'd have thought they are exactly what we need to rebalance the system from being heavily reliant on company & PAYE taxes ...
... it's just , the Green's ideas of wealth taxes are batsh*t crazy ... on the right path / in the wrong vehicle ...
Perhaps, but you need to be careful here. The prospect of government agents being authorised to enter your home in order to audit your assets, as proposed by the Greens, is a middle finger to a foundation of our law. That is the Magna Carta signed 800 years ago to prevent precisely the Crown from having any right to intervene in the legitimate ownership of assets by individual citizens.
... agree 100 % , Mr F ... which is why the Greens are seen as " batshit crazy " ... and , having been through a bat cave in Palawan last week , that's not a great place to be ..
Whereas , a simple land tax ... the gift which keeps giving to the government ... easy & cheap to implement , impossible to avoid , and it rises automatically with land value increases : Wow !
You sound like a City Councillor. The local councils introduced a virtual wealth land tax via rates years and years ago and have been honing and exploiting it ever since. Rates are a charge for services yet a household using half the services of another can end up paying twice the rates because the great part of the calculation hinges on value of the property. And then, central government siphons out another 15% GST on top of that. With this inequitableness already existing, how do you then overlay a land tax onto it.
Quite easily , infact : central government is ignoring the mountain of 24 carat gold which is the untaxed land in this nation ... they ought to tap into these rivers of gold , and offset the revenues against huge shifts in the income tax bands & the rate of company tax ...
... plus ... rescind the charities tax free status ... treat everyone equally in the beady narrow eyes of the IRD vultures ...
“off set the revenues” there’s your problem right there if the history of GST is to be considered. The Lange/Douglas lot introduced then increased it and compensated with reduction in income tax. The Clark/Cullen lot then raised income tax again. The Key /English lot increased GST and lowered income tax. The Ardern/Robertson lot then increase income tax. And amongst all of that is rake off from tax bracket creep. so what we have now is both GST and the old income tax revenue. The Introduction of GST was geared by Roger Douglas to eventuate in a flat income tax. That didn’t happen and any other new tax will simply have its compensation eaten away because governments find income tax as an irresistible easy target.
There are some serious problems with wealth or land taxes though - the biggest being that when you retire you still need to pay it even though you have little income.
The biggest problem is that its socialist theft of private property.
Oh for goodness sake! Try thinking things through before you fire out such a vacuous statement.
Around the world wealth is being increasingly concentrated into the hands of a smaller & smaller proportion of societies ... which as history shows , leads eventually to bad outcomes ... revolutions , bloodshed on a grand scale ... wealth taxes of various types are a means to " even the playing field " , particularly if they can be utilised to reduce taxes on the productive engine of our financial system ; workers & businesses ...
Doesn’t that incentivise downsizing, which is a good thing?
ie. you will pay more tax if you have a large house on a full section, and much less tax if you live in a townhouse on a small section.
Also you could provide a discount for pensioners.
Am at sixes in sevens on this. It would force me to downsize but to crappier accommodation based on looking ahead for the last two years. So on the one hand it's good but from my personnel point of view, lousy. Perhaps if was forced there'd be a major shake up in the housing market and the now crappier house might drop in price but on the other hand it might increase based on everyone wanting to move from a mansion (>200m2 area incl a double garage) to a smaller one. Council rules would need changing so more houses on a given area. Akl already have this but here in NP not so.
Right path in the wrong vehicle sums up lots of green policies
A wealth tax needs to be seriously considered. All of the wealth sits at the top age brackets, and paying for their super and heathcare isn't going to be possible with less and less working age people in comparison. We can't keep expecting PAYE and GST to cover the needs of the aging population, while they sit on hoards of accumulated wealth, to be passed down to the lucky few.
They may not need Māori party support. Still a long time until the election, but if you believe in momentum deciding the winner then surely that momentum has switched big time.
Robbo knows who'll win the next election ... why did he step aside from being gifted the PM's role , when he was Ardern's closest ally & confidante ... because he felt his talent ( ah haaaa haaaaa ) as finance minister was more important to the nation ?
... like hell ! ... he coverts the top job ... he wants it desperately , but knows that Hipkins will be the sacrificial Labour leader going into October 14 ...
Robbo will wait a few months or so after that , then oust Chippy ...
You are so out of touch its astounding...
...that's rich , coming from you !
Well ate least I know one of your upticks is Yvil..I wonder who the other is?
Brock !
"there is no room for climate deniers or minimalists in the National Party caucus"
Judith Collins refrained from giving straight answers when questioned on climate change back in the 2020 election debates. Isn't she still a National MP?
Maureen Pugh said the climate changes and had asked James Shaw (Climate Minister) to provide info/evidence pertaining to human's activity in relation to climate.
What's the problem? Is she a climate heretic?
Why is this story leading NewsHub while we're still in a national-state-of-emergency!? Bizarre Story!
If NewsHub reporters want to ask questions of MPs about the climate, why not ask James Shaw, the Climate Minister? Why ask Maureen Pugh of all people, she's not even in government! Bizarre Story!
- I suspect Climate Change is treated as a religion at NewsHub.
- I suspect this story appeals to reddit users with soft brains.
Bizarre Story!
But Mureen has rolled back her climate denial !
Actually a predictable cynical ploy, to appeal to her West Coast-Tasman supporters with First comment then "roll it back" for media and normal thinking public. Absolutely cynical. Trumpism stuff inside the Nation Party. Disappointing to see.
Dear Lord, she's a natural lightening-rod~!! lol ;)
She should've adhered to David Seymour's legislation : 3 strikes , & you're out ...
witty, that's worth a like
I am pretty sure she is not denying climate change. She only asked David Shaw for proof of human causation, and so far he has been unable, or has refused to provide proof. Possible someone from Interest.co could ask him for it, and print it here. That should give him a few votes.
He did partly answer that and said the science says so. Of course it depends on which scientists you select. He obviously selects the ones that say the science is settled.
Oh my god, people! There is scientific consensus that CC is due to humans, as is the 6th mass extinction currently under way. Shaw said he doesn't have time to pander to these people, that take him away from making progress, with stupid questions on topics that are not up for debate.
Considering that Simon Bridges (who was objectively F***ing useless) called her F***ing useless, this is no surprise
She's NOT the Climate Minister
She's NOT even a prominent MP
The media going her like a pack of wild Hyenas, over nothing!! - not kool!
The media have resumed their " kick the snot out of the Gnats " programme ... because ... the media are in a honeymoon phase with " Chippy " ...
It will end in tears for him , just as "Jacindamania" fell apart for Ardern before him ...
What GNats programme? We are all ears..
... no , I don't think you are ...
Still waiting tick tock
... I'm having a Cerveza Blanca ... you keep waiting ...
Speaking of ears - there was a young lady from Madras, who had a most magnificent ass, no, not pretty and pink, as you probably think, it was grey had long ears and ate grass.
.. speaking of ears , the receptionist at Tradestaff was most surprised when a sheep ambled into their Colombo Street office and in perfect English , asked for a job ... " well ... well , there is a Circus in Hagley Park ... you might try them ... "
... " WTF " screams the sheep " does a circus need with a bricklayer ! "
Pretty ugly week so far for the NZSX50.
Down 0.8% today at 4.20pm today, after a fall of more than 2% yesterday.
One of the big banks setting aside $1 billion for low-interest loans, $750m of which is available to invest in our future and build back better, with a focus on resilience, growth and sustainability.
BNZ unveils $1 billion low-rate cyclone recovery loan fund | Stuff.co.nz
"The NZX50 is following up Monday's down-with-a-thump fall of over 2% with some further, slightly more modest, easing, down 0.6%"
The stand-out being A2Milk again, down another 6.5%.
Comvita's top brass have been out having a look at the company's Hawkes Bay facilities after the cyclone hit, and it's not good. "Our own facility has suffered extensive damage and our working hypothesis is that the site will be written off in its entirety. Naturally, we have full insurance cover in place and do not anticipate any material impact on our financial results," the company said. "From an operational perspective as previously advised, we have moved extraction to one of our other facilities and apart from the significant disruption in Hawkes Bay, we do not expect any material impact to our daily operations. We will provide further updates in due course."
Those businesses and jobs won't return. For every 30 kids that leave that's one less teacher employed. It's hard to wrap your head around how big this is.
It's hard to wrap your head around how big this is.
Agreed. Talking with NZTE people next weekend in Malaysia and will be interesting to see what is said.
Stateside.
Sales of commercial mortgage bonds have fallen off a cliff, plummeting about 85% year-over-year, as rising interest rates cut into lending volume and defaults spook investors.
Only about $4.27 billion of the bonds have been issued so far this year, down from $29.38 billion at this same point last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on deals without government backing. Investors blame the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate campaign, which has made it more expensive for borrowers to refinance. Higher rates have also cut into sales of properties by effectively lifting prices for buyers.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/commercial-property-market-freezes-bond-….
So mortgage lending is down slightly, but the resale of boxed up mortgages as investments has fallen off a cliff.
This directly translates to more risk on bank balance sheets.
Cool and normal.
In Chyna, although local governments want state-owned property companies to resolve China's property crisis by taking over private-sector projects, they haven't done so, mainly because the problem isn't liquidity so much as a hugely overextended property sector.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-state-owned-property-developers-shu…
Massive issues there that are far from resolved…
Bloody heck, moderately heavy rain forecast for Gisborne, Napier etc this weekend.
Let’s hope it doesn’t eventuate.
Best not to look at the 10 day forecast then... !! (yes i know it's a long way off) wednesday next week could be even worse.
https://metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain®ion=nzni&noofdays=10
(note: images will change as forecast updates)
Looks like we are down to one functioning ferry now! https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington/131290583/bluebri…
OMG getting worser and worser.
Pun intended or unintended?
Its just worser.
.. so , not worsier than we first thought ... nor , the worsest of all time ? ... that's a worserer , then ...
worsetest well thats what TodayFM would say
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has announced details of a Cabinet Committee...
A committee? Thank God, we're saved!
... yay ! ... I was beginning to sweat it there ... they've not formulated a new committee for several days now ... we gotta keep our daily quota of new committees on track ... in fact , I'll create a new committee to oversee that ...
The committee will meet short to decide the scope of engagement of the working group.
... and a team of highly paid consultants ! ... mustn't leave them out of the gravy train ...
and if you are a labour polly and can get on a subcommittee or working group your career continues after the election
It's a Cabinet committee. Nothing to see here.
10 year swap staying high, not seeing return to low interest rates at all it seems.
You burn that much fossil fuel and temps rise.... wow...
You print that much money and inflation rises... wow
Socialists get the first bit, not so smart re the second bit
NZSX50 back to where it was mid January.
USA stock indexes look to be having a very bad day after their long weekend!
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