A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; more TD changes, new Govt cyclone committee, Mercury sets hydro record, the cyclone woe mounts up, swaps higher again, NZD slightly stronger, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT RATE CHANGES
HSBC has raised rates for terms up to an including a year, with the biggest movements applied to shorter terms, the three-month rate going up 65 bps, while the one-year is raised 15 bps.

GOVERNMENT APPOINTS 'LEAD MINISTERS' FOR CYCLONE RESPONSE
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has announced details of a Cabinet Committee and regional Ministerial leads to help coordinate the Central Government response and recovery from Cyclone Gabrielle. The move was foreshadowed on Monday. The new Extreme Weather Recovery Committee will be chaired by Grant Robertson as Minister for Cyclone Recovery, with Barbara Edmonds as deputy. Hipkins and Emergency Management Minister Kieran McAnulty will also be members. Megan Woods will be responsible for infrastructure and housing. Deputy Prime Minister Carmel Sepuloni will be responsible for the social sector and Māori Development Minister Willie Jackson and Associate Agriculture Minister Meka Whaitiri will also be members – each of whom will have responsibilities overseeing the recovery in these areas. The committee will meet for the first time next week. The Ministerial leads are Northland - Kelvin Davis, Auckland and Coromandel - Michael Wood, Waikato - Nanaia Mahuta, Tairāwhiti and Bay of Plenty - Kiri Allan, Hawke’s Bay - Stuart Nash, Tararua and Wairarapa - Kieran McAnulty. Separately, McAnulty announced a further contribution to mayoral funds.

'WET WEATHER HAS DEFINED THE PERIOD'
He can say that again. Mercury [MCY] chief executive Vince Hawkesworth, in releasing the company's half-year results, said Mercury's hydro production was up 852GWh (compared with the same period a year ago) to a record 2,735GWh after Lake Taupō experienced its highest ever inflows for the July to December period. "In addition to producing the highest hydro generation volume in our company’s history, another 675GWh was spilled to maintain lakes within Resource Consent operating limits," he said. The company announced interim after-tax profits of $230 million, well down on the $427 million for the same period a year ago - but that previous figure was boosted by a one-off gain in sale of the company's Tilt Renewables shares. Mercury has maintained its forecast of $795 million of operating earnings (that's pre-tax) for the full year to June 2023.  

'...CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED AS CATASTROPHIC'
Comvita's top brass have been out having a look at the company's Hawkes Bay facilities after the cyclone hit, and it's not good. "Our own facility has suffered extensive damage and our working hypothesis is that the site will be written off in its entirety. Naturally, we have full insurance cover in place and do not anticipate any material impact on our financial results," the company said. "From an operational perspective as previously advised, we have moved extraction to one of our other facilities and apart from the significant disruption in Hawkes Bay, we do not expect any material impact to our daily operations. We will provide further updates in due course."

'...WATER AND CONNECTIVITY ISSUES PRESENT MAJOR CHALLENGES'
Medicinal cannabis company Rua Bioscience says its Gisborne head office and manufacturing facility are closed. "Neither site sustained damage, but water and connectivity issues present major challenges. Members of these teams are working remotely as far as is practical and volunteering within the community. Rua has ample stocks of medicine available through our distributor in Christchurch and we do not expect supply disruptions," the company says. Rua’s R&D facility at Ruatorea remains operational. The company's main cultivation supply is off-shore and has not been impacted. Rua says it is "not able to determine the impact on business moving forward" and will provide updates as relevant information comes to hand.

'...WE WANT TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE IMPACT ON OUR CUSTOMERS FROM THE EXTREME WEATHER'
Vector [VCT] chair Jonathan Mason says the company's network "has experienced significant damage with restorations complicated by the extent and complexity of the damage, road access and on-going slips. Our teams have worked tirelessly and will continue to do so until all of our customers have their power back." The company announced a 13.2% drop in half-year, after tax, profit to $100.3 million.

'...NOT BEEN DAMAGED SIGNIFICANTLY'
Delegat's says things are not looking too bad at its Hawke’s Bay winery and vineyards and it is continuing to assess the impact on equipment and infrastructure at these sites. "We now have access to our Crownthorpe vineyard and we are working towards further improving this access over the course of this week. We are on track for a successful harvest in Hawke's Bay commencing around the end of February. A further update will be provided with Delegat’s interim results, scheduled for Friday, February 24," the company said.

TEENAGE BIRTHS HALVED IN LAST DECADE
The number of teenage women in New Zealand giving birth has more than halved over the last decade, according to Stats NZ. There were 1,719 births registered to teenage women (those aged under 20 years) in 2022, accounting for around 1 in every 34 births that year. In 2012, there were 3,786 births registered to teenage mothers, accounting for around 1 in every 16 births that year. "The decreasing number of teenage births coincides with improved education and access to contraception," Stats NZ's estimates and projections manager Michael MacAskill said. In 1972, when teenage births peaked, 9,150 teenage women gave birth, accounting for around 1 in every 7 births that year. 

HEARTLAND CHAIRPERSON STEPS DOWN
Heartland Group Holdings [HGH] advises that Geoff Ricketts is stepping down as chairperson of Heartland with immediate effect for an indefinite period due to ill health, but will remain as a director. Greg Tomlinson, Heartland’s deputy chairperson, will assume the role of chairperson, subject to board approval.

SWAP RATES LOOKING HIGHER
Wholesale swap rates are likely up quite a bit on Tuesday. But the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up 2 bps at 5.03%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.85% and up 4 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is up 3 bps at 2.95%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.45% and up 8 bps. The UST 10 year is up 3 bps at 3.86%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY DOWN
The S&P500 ended down 0.3% on Wall Street over the long holiday weekend. Tokyo is very slightly down in morning trade. Hong Kong is down by 0.6% at its open. Shanghai is up 0.4% at its open. The ASX200 is down 0.3% so far in early afternoon trade. The NZX50 is following up Monday's down-with-a-thump fall of over 2% with some further, slightly more modest, easing, down 0.6%.

GOLD GOES SIDEWAYS AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is hovering around US$1842-3, which is pretty much where it was at this time on Monday.

NZD SLIGHTLY STRONGER
The Kiwi dollar is at 62.54 USc, pretty much exactly where it was overnight - but a bit higher than this time on Monday. Against the Aussie we are marginally higher from overnight, but about the same as this time on Monday, at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are a little higher at 58.6 euro cents. The TWI is now at over 70.2 and up from 70.1 on Monday.

BITCOIN FANCIES US$25K
Bitcoin has flirted with the US$25,000 mark during the day and at time of writing was at about US$25,025. This is up 3% from this time yesterday and 15% higher in the past seven days. 

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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