Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ANZ raised its floating home loan rates (including their revolving credit rates) by +25 bps, but the effective date will vary depending on whether you are a new or existing client. More here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
ANZ raised its bonus savings account rates by +25 bps. More here.
DOWN, DOWN, DOWN
New residential building consents were down almost -26% in April compared to a year earlier. The depth of the approaching residential construction downturn gets deeper by the month.
OPEN BANKING GETS CLOSER
The five banks representing more than 90% of NZ consumer banking accounts now have targets to have the necessary APIs ready for open banking. For the big four Aussie banks it is by May 2024, and for Kiwibank it is November 2026.
VERY LOW BUT STABILISED
Farm sales remain low. Overall, there were just 237 farm sales in the three months ended April 2023, compared to 238 farm sales for the three months ended March 2023, and 461 farm sales for the three months ended April 2022. For the year to April there were 1,208 farms were sold, -566 less than were sold in the equivalent 2022 year, with -37% fewer Dairy farms, -11% fewer Dairy Support farms, -21% fewer Grazing farms, -30% fewer Finishing farms and -36% fewer Arable farms sold over the same period.
LIFESTYLE BLOCK SALES SAG SHARPLY
Overall, there were 1,256 lifestyle property sales in the three months ended April 2023, compared to 1,792 for the three months ended April 2022, a huge -30% retreat.
FAST HALF-YEAR EXPANSION
MTF Finance is pushing out with aggressive growth in its network, of a now 51-strong franchise network, vehicle dealers and partners such as Trade Me. They now have receivables of more than $879 mln, up +23% in a year. Profit rose to $6.2 mln while their arrears fell to 0.7%. MTF Finance has debt listed on the NZDX.
SBS PROFIT DROPS, HOUSING LENDING GROWS STRONGLY
The SBS Group, including SBS Bank, SBS Insurance, SBS Wealth and Finance Now, posted a -16% drop in March-year surplus to $51.8 mln. The fall was attributed to the combined effects of lower interest margin and an increase to credit provisioning. Lending rose $624 mln to $5.025 bln, with member deposits up $655 mln to $4.230 bln. Housing lending rose +12%, well above the broader industry growth rate of +3.5%.
BANK NIMs SLIP
Banking sector profit after tax decreased by -$216 mln to $1.67 bln in the March 2023 quarter, according to the S20 RBNZ data release today. The system-wide return on assets declined to 1.0% and return on equity decreased to 11.2%, which is the first time below 12% since the September 2020 quarter. Net interest income decreased by -$103 mln to $3.83 bln and the net interest margin (NIM) was down by 2 bps to 2.35%. Still that is its second highest since December 2014. (It's highest ever was 3.26% in 1991.)
DITTO IN AUSSIE
Australian residential building consents fell more than -24% year-on-year in April, with consents for houses down -19% and those for other dwellings down -35%. But the overall fall was -8.1% in April from March (compared to the New Zealand equivalent fall of -2.6% m/m.)
SWAP RATES STILL BECALMED
Wholesale swap rates are likely lower today with moderate falls. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 5.71%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 3.66% and down -5 bps from this time yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 2.74%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is at 4.37% and down -6 bps, but the earlier RBNZ fix fell by -8 bps to 4.33%. The UST 10 year yield is now at 3.76% and -5 bps lower from this time yesterday.
EQUITIES SIDELINED
The NZX50 is down -0.2% in late trade and holding most of yesterday's good gain. The ASX200 is down even less and also holding yesterday's gain. Tokyo has opened down -0.4% in early trade today in a settling after its own sharp gain. Hong Kong is still struggling, down another -0.3 in their early trade after yesterday's retreat. Shanghai is unchanged in early trade today. The S&P500 futures indicate Wall Street will open +0.4% higher when they return tomorrow. But there is a long way to go, and the uncertainty of the Congressional debt-ceiling vote still to play out.
GOLD ON HOLD
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1946/oz and little-changed with both the New York and London markets shut today for holidays.
NZD STILL ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar has held from this time yesterday, now at 60.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are a little softer at 92.5 AUc. And against the euro we are unchanged at 56.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is still at 69.4.
BITCOIN SETTLES BACK
The bitcoin price is softer today, now at US$27,756 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just over +/- 1.1%.
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33 Comments
Open banking sounds like an edge use case, that has massive personal data sharing to underpin it.
In the UK they are miles ahead on their open banking journey, and the only valie they seem to be able to articulate is helping the financially illiterate, without actually teaching them anything.
All of this is mandated compliance, costing banks, amd ultimately, each of us.
GDI vs GDP in the US highlights issues in this area.
Here's recession confirmation & not later this year like Fed forecast. Recession already by Q1 before banking crisis. Real GDI down Y/Y. In 75yrs of data, it has NEVER happened outside recession (or immediately after). Happens IN EVERY contraction. https://buff.ly/3ILJCzp Link
Just checking I don't get a 403 can't post message as I did on the superMaori article.
Edit.
Posted, so I'm guessing it's closed because of some pretty sad commenters.
Here it is anyway.
My reality at late 50s age is to see some of my school mates dying.
I was schooled at only two places both of which had around 30% Maori.
Those mates that have died have worked and paid taxes and the majority have been Maori.
I don't nessacrily think the policy above is the answer but I'm not so sure that getting no return from the tax paid to cover super is at all fair.
Sadly we saw the demise of my fellow spruiker HW2.
I thought of this clip: There can be only one. I managed to get the last comment in.
HW3 who is tolerant and compassionate towards the needs of minority populations will be here tomorrow with stories of green shoots in the housing market.
I didn't see the comment but it must have been a beauty for the moderators to claim it to be one of the worst ever in the site's history.
He took a disliking to suggestions Maori should be able to retire earlier based on their, on average, shorter lifespans. Maori party doing their job to create debate for their members interests.
There are ways to disagree with stuff. That way was way out of order.
The rage about Maori issues is real beneath the surface. The establishment/legacy media and political consensus have always kept it suppressed, as have the imposed social taboos about racism.
But it is going to erupt. The unspoken part is the disdain for Maori amongst many of the new immigrant groups, as well as this feeling of cultural revolution and aversion to government parasitism around Maori issues within the White population. After the Orewa Speech, Don Brash gained 17% in the polls by touching that third rail in 2004. Establishment/Legacy Media could reign it in then, the question of whether it could reign it in now is harder to know.
The Maori Party have a classical left attitude of trying to provoke the anger of the Right/Conservative or White populations with their statements to in turn try to build dependency of Maori constituents on their party for their respective political representation. Does it pay off for them? Unknown.
Give it 1 year, and software sellers will be hovering around governments like vultures selling large language model-based solutions that sniff out every little clue about an individual and assess life expectancy to the nearest 10 minutes. Plug that in the super model and we have entitlements assessed in milliseconds by AI.
Once that is in place, I will be posting on every forum that I'm an obese chain smoker with a taste for skydiving and girlfriends with large, pathologically angry husbands.
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