Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
Heretaunga Building Society and Liberty Financial both raised floating and fixed rates today. Update: ANZ has raised rates on some of its most popular fixed home loan terms. Their one year rate is now 699% and 18 months 6.75%. But these just match some of their main rivals.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None have been advised so far. Update: ANZ has added +20 bps to its Online Account and its Business Premium Call account, taking these rates to 2.75%. It's Cash PIE account has risen similarly.
CONCERNING DROP
Stats NZ figures show that retail spending using an electronic card fell by -1.9% in May, with only one industry (miscellaneous services) seeing a rise. This was 'much weaker than expected' in the month. Consumer retail spending is likely to 'remain soggy' over the second half of the year, say bank analysts. We should also note that spending on petrol was down -4.5%, so that isn't necessarily a bad thing.
HELPFUL DROP
Petrol prices may keep in falling (unless we decide to tax ourselves heavier). Today, crude oil prices are under pressure with the US-linked price falling below US$70/bbl (actually under US$69.50/bbl), and the international Brent price is now down under US$74/bbl. MbS won't be happy because this comes despite his threat of production cuts.
CBL SETTLEMENT
The FMA has won court settlements to resolve its claims with CBL Corporation (In Liquidation) and four of its former directors in respect of the FMA's claims of continuous disclosure breaches and misleading conduct. The four directors to reach agreement are Sir John Wells (who was Chair of the CBLC Board of Directors), and Tony Hannon, Paul Donaldson, and Ian Marsh. A penalty hearing before the High Court in Auckland will take place in due course.
UNWELCOME DROP
Japan's producer prices fell in May from April, only the third such drop in the past two+ years, and the steepest monthly drop (-0.7%) since 2016 (pandemic excluded).
VOLCANO WATCH
Let's keep an eye on a Philippine volcano, Mt Mayon. It is erupting in a 'gentle' way, but there are fears a sudden violent eruption could follow. Like the Tongan volcano, it could have global weather implications. (The Tongan eruption was the largest since the Krakatoa in 1883. These events add huge amounts of material into the atmosphere, and airlines will be keeping a close eye on the situation.)
SWAP RATES UNCHANGED
Wholesale swap rates are likely little-changed today. Remember, regionally most of Australia is closed for a public holiday. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is up +1 bp at 5.69% and +19 bps above the 5.50% OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is unchanged at 3.96%. The China 10 year bond rate is soft and now below 2.70%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is at 4.56%, unchanged, but that is still higher than the earlier RBNZ fix which is up +2 bps to 4.51%. The UST 10 year yield is now at 3.75% and little-changed from this morning's open.
EQUITIES MIXED BUT QUIET
The NZX50 is down another -0.8% in late trade today and continuing its steady retreat. The ASX200 isn't trading today with Sydney and Melbourne closed. Tokyo has opened the week up +0.7% in early Monday trade. Hong Kong is down -0.5%. Shanghai is down -0.4% in its early opening. The S&P500 futures suggest Wall Street will open tomorrow up +0.3%, perhaps feeling the downside risks have all been priced in. But trading volumes have been unusually light recently.
GOLD SOFT
In early Asian trade, gold is at US$1955/oz and down -US$6 from where we started this morning.
NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from this morning at 61.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are soft at 90.8 AUc but that is only back to Friday's level. Against the euro we are still at 57 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is now at 69.4.
BITCOIN LITTLE-CHANGED
The bitcoin price is little-changed today and is now at US$25,891 but that is down -1.8% from this time Friday. Volatility has again been modest at +/- 1.0%.
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95 Comments
The long march through the institutions continues. Does anyone recall being given the opportunity to vote for any of this ?
Agreed.
This is a significant shift in governance and needs to be not only fully transparent but also fully and openly debated and voted upon.
Once co-governance is implemented it will be near impossible to rescind.
To me, co-governance is one of the most significant issue that will affect my vote in October. I expect that those parties pushing for co-governance clearly state this as part of their policies.
I wonder what your understand by co-governance.
Mine is that it is shared governance of the well being of our water services or simply an added voice that is less self motivated.
I have more faith in Maori not to sell our strategic assets to foreign concerns as was done with our generation.
It certainly looks like a lot of you see this very differently.
It's the most significant vote-determining issue for me as well, if only because the current government refuses to allow any debate on the topic and thinks we are all dumb frogs not smart enough to realise the water is rapidly warming. Tell us what the end state looks like (I suspect there isn't one, it's a case of 'too much is never enough') and let the public decide on it - the current approach is unforgivable IMO.
If the outcome of my vote means my landlord neighbour gets to upgrade his Range Rover (again) then so be it. To quote the short arse king from Shrek, 'that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make'.
Nothing a National-ACT gov does will bring investor confidence back in NZ's housing market without mortgage rates going down to 2.XX%.
Also, I doubt you could perpetually grow the economy simply on debt and migration without building the infrastructure to support higher value activities. The tide has clearly turned on skilled people wanting to move to NZ and this will only worsen without a complete overhaul of the system.
So there won't be a proper road for your neighbour to drive his shiny new Range Rover.
“If you want to raise a crop for one year, plant corn. If you want to raise a crop for decades, plant trees. If you want to raise a crop for centuries, raise men. If you want to plant a crop for eternities, raise democracies.”
Shirin Ebadi is an Iranian political activist, lawyer, a former judge and human rights activist and founder of the Defenders of Human Rights Center in Iran. In 2003, Ebadi was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her significant and pioneering efforts for democracy and human rights, especially women's, children's and refugee rights. She was the first Iranian and the first Muslim woman to receive the prize.
"if only because the current government refuses to allow any debate on the topic"
Wow, for a topic the government refuses to allow any debate on it sure does get raised a lot in the interest, MSM and Facebook rants. It must be the most debated topic not allowed to be debated in the history of debate.
The original comment was around this government banning debate on co-governance as a general principle not the EPA in particular. But here are some articles on EPA and co-governance. They actually seem to support the idea that Labour are not in favour of co-governance so not sure what that does to the narrative you and National are trying to push.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/rob-campbell-fired-from-second-g…
https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/03/02/rob-campbell-dismissals-about-co-gov…
The moa didn't vote for it, nor did the de-forested Otago landscape.
I have no problem with inclusion - but I have a problem with woke virtue-signallers who think that they can get out of jail free by acknowledging one - the most recent - of the hundreds of over-throwings we are all a result of. Maori only got here five minutes before Europeans, in the big timescale. Driven here by overpopulation, sure as eggs is eggs :) Per head of population, the same proportion of psychopaths, the same proportion of ego-driven, the same proportion of short-term-gain thinking. Just like European-derived stock - all the way from environmentalist to rip/shit/bust-ist; it is silly to think they have magic answers. Yes, they impacted less - but given fossil energy, we're all the same.
Me too, have been really split over the two bad choices we have coming voting day, and really concerned that National will wind up house prices again if given the choice…. But am very concerned about this kind of thing being popped in under the radar. I think it is vote deciding also.
Farmers will be highly supportive but National will have some work to do to explain it to the urban voters who will likely determine the election outcome. It makes a real point of difference between the parties, and Labour and Greens will attack it viciously.
KeithW
Since vast majority of humans rarely think about their future beyond the next 5-10 years, politicians use that to their advantage when drafting policies.
Take for example the new housing policy to free up the land for 30 years. Why not designate the land and then release it in 6 stages of 5 years, where its easy to see and measure the progress?
People fail to see the long term damage when presented with short term gains.
That would be the worst thing to do, it wouldn’t decrease land prices and it would still create the same amount of sprawl. Either let people build anywhere which will collapse land prices but make NZ a bigger mess, or prevent any more sprawl and create better but more expensive cities. Anything in between is just the worst of both worlds.
Teachers are underpaid relative to the work they put in and importance of their contribution to children's and the country's wellbeing and future earnings capacity.
By contrast, "Justa comment" and "JimboJones" are overpaid because they slack off on interest nz all day.
He should just pull a vintage 2016 Donald Trump (before he started getting a bit too kleptomaniacal with State secrets) and proclaim that the Labour MPs are merely jealous because they aren't as good at property investing as he is, and nobody else in parliament has amassed such a big and beautiful property portfolio as he.
Although I say that tongue-in-cheek, in hindsight it was one aspect of Trump's campaigning that was incredibly effective the first time around - because he had absolutely no shame in proclaiming his wealth and saw it as a virtue, but also understood that his opponents sought wealth but just hadn't amassed as much of it, it was simply impossible to effectively attack him with that angle ... like water off a ducks back, or watching boxers of old try to hit Muhammad Ali when he was in his prime.
Something on similar lines was published in stuff today:
christopher-luxons-properties-affected-by-density-laws-he-plans-to-scrap
I’m in the 2 year camp. Think there is risk of inflation hanging around. Particularly with elections. Listened to a good Grantham podcast where he discussed how if you went back and looked at the 10-12 month lead in to all the prior election cycles. It is where you have very strong jobs data coming out as the incumbents rosy up the economy. Now nothing ground breaking there but I think it’ll be the old politics getting in the way of getting the job done.
Don’t forget Bernard who was on the telly calming the flock last May when it was all kicking off
He told the sheeple to ignore the doom and gloom of inflation and rising interest rates as they would be falling within 6 months by the end of 22 or early 23
https://twitter.com/TheProject_NZ/status/1526825567663935489
Totally agree. AKL cheaper than most other places.
Kiwis too lazy or stupid to watch out and think - oh, yes, NZ education doesn't teach indepth thinking. NZ is in to every woke trend possible. Ride your bike past the petrol station labelled in Maori.
Wiri is cheaper than North Shore - about 30 c / l differential.,
Yep. You're seeing the benefits of the special additional 10c/lt Auckland fuel tax working there.
https://www.transport.govt.nz/area-of-interest/revenue/regional-fuel-ta….
Man, 1 year at 699%, that's going to be expensive for anyone rolling over onto that rate. I estimate that if people are coming from a 4% rate for a $500k mortgage, they would have been paying $2387 per month on a thirty year term. But at 699%, that goes up to $291,250 per month, slightly less affordable.
:-p
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