Mike Jones
[updated]
The downbeat results from the ANZ Business Outlook survey suggest that the RBNZ may have to rethink its OCR hiking plan, according to BNZ economists
31st May 22, 1:24pm
57
The downbeat results from the ANZ Business Outlook survey suggest that the RBNZ may have to rethink its OCR hiking plan, according to BNZ economists
[updated]
Reserve Bank sees OCR being as high as 3.9% by June next year
Bank economists agree the RBNZ will lift the OCR by 50 basis points to 2% on Wednesday, so what else are they focusing on?
21st May 22, 9:05am
131
Bank economists agree the RBNZ will lift the OCR by 50 basis points to 2% on Wednesday, so what else are they focusing on?
ASB economists say last week's 'big lift' in wholesale interest rates added to the upside pressure on mortgage rates
11th Apr 22, 2:21pm
107
ASB economists say last week's 'big lift' in wholesale interest rates added to the upside pressure on mortgage rates
Latest ASB Housing Confidence Survey shows respondents at odds with ASB's economists over the direction of house prices
6th Dec 21, 5:00am
112
Latest ASB Housing Confidence Survey shows respondents at odds with ASB's economists over the direction of house prices
Economists at three of the four largest banks now see house prices dropping in 2022
1st Dec 21, 1:49pm
26
Economists at three of the four largest banks now see house prices dropping in 2022
ASB economists say the Reserve Bank 'should consider' starting lifting interest rates with a 50 basis-point rise and say the central bank could use interest rates to 'douse the housing market'
9th Aug 21, 12:56pm
46
ASB economists say the Reserve Bank 'should consider' starting lifting interest rates with a 50 basis-point rise and say the central bank could use interest rates to 'douse the housing market'
ASB economists say even though debt burdens have increased, households should be able to tolerate reasonable increases in mortgage rates without budgets becoming unduly stressed
29th Jun 21, 1:53pm
14
ASB economists say even though debt burdens have increased, households should be able to tolerate reasonable increases in mortgage rates without budgets becoming unduly stressed
ASB economists see single figure house price inflation by the end of next year; rents are now running hot in tandem with house prices
10th Mar 21, 11:26am
79
ASB economists see single figure house price inflation by the end of next year; rents are now running hot in tandem with house prices
The shock drop in the unemployment rate has ended all talk of further official interest rate falls and is now prompting increased speculation of rates beginning to rise in 2022
3rd Feb 21, 3:24pm
74
The shock drop in the unemployment rate has ended all talk of further official interest rate falls and is now prompting increased speculation of rates beginning to rise in 2022
Statistics New Zealand says unemployment dropped to 4.9% in the December quarter from 5.3%; economists had universally expected unemployment to rise
3rd Feb 21, 11:02am
94
Statistics New Zealand says unemployment dropped to 4.9% in the December quarter from 5.3%; economists had universally expected unemployment to rise
Economists think the unemployment rate will show a discernible lift for the September quarter, but the figures are not likely to be as bad as was being forecast earlier in the year
2nd Nov 20, 10:16am
20
Economists think the unemployment rate will show a discernible lift for the September quarter, but the figures are not likely to be as bad as was being forecast earlier in the year
ASB economists say a much more severe shortage of housing than earlier thought is a key reason for rocketing house prices; 11% house price inflation forecast for June 2021 year
14th Oct 20, 9:23am
65
ASB economists say a much more severe shortage of housing than earlier thought is a key reason for rocketing house prices; 11% house price inflation forecast for June 2021 year
Economists flag potential for quantitative easing to reach its limit if government spending and debt issuance end up being lower than forecast
11th Aug 20, 5:00am
25
Economists flag potential for quantitative easing to reach its limit if government spending and debt issuance end up being lower than forecast
Economists on average are picking unemployment to surge up from 4.2% to 5.7% for the June quarter - but they stress that the impact of the lockdown is going to make it difficult to get a clear picture
3rd Aug 20, 12:10pm
13
Economists on average are picking unemployment to surge up from 4.2% to 5.7% for the June quarter - but they stress that the impact of the lockdown is going to make it difficult to get a clear picture
With unemployment figures likely to be unchanged at 4.2% there's little pressure on the Reserve Bank to make changes when it next reviews the Official Cash Rate on February 12
3rd Feb 20, 11:07am
6
With unemployment figures likely to be unchanged at 4.2% there's little pressure on the Reserve Bank to make changes when it next reviews the Official Cash Rate on February 12
REINZ says number of residential properties sold across New Zealand in December 2019 increased by 12.3% from the same time last year to 6,285 up from 5,596; Auckland sales up 31.7% on same month a year earlier
16th Jan 20, 9:26am
129
REINZ says number of residential properties sold across New Zealand in December 2019 increased by 12.3% from the same time last year to 6,285 up from 5,596; Auckland sales up 31.7% on same month a year earlier
The big bank economists are mulling what the flagging business confidence and drooping inflation expectations mean for the economy, with one economist even questioning whether the economy is heading for 'stall speed'
2nd Sep 19, 2:32pm
25
The big bank economists are mulling what the flagging business confidence and drooping inflation expectations mean for the economy, with one economist even questioning whether the economy is heading for 'stall speed'
ASB economists say restrictions on non-resident house buying in NZ are 'biting' and this supports the ASB view that there will only be a 'modest' pick-up in house prices in the second half of this year
24th Jun 19, 1:22pm
35
ASB economists say restrictions on non-resident house buying in NZ are 'biting' and this supports the ASB view that there will only be a 'modest' pick-up in house prices in the second half of this year
OCR hike in March fully priced in and market over-estimating probability of hike in January
12th Dec 13, 8:30am
OCR hike in March fully priced in and market over-estimating probability of hike in January
Expection is for strong demand for LGFA bonds; anticipation of increased offshore investor participation in 2014
11th Dec 13, 8:42am
Expection is for strong demand for LGFA bonds; anticipation of increased offshore investor participation in 2014
Swap curve steepens; markets pricing in January rate cut, BNZ says that's too soon
10th Dec 13, 8:09am
Swap curve steepens; markets pricing in January rate cut, BNZ says that's too soon
Markets expecting Fed to taper, RBNZ to raise OCR; strong data should result in strong signals on Thursday
9th Dec 13, 7:49am
1
Markets expecting Fed to taper, RBNZ to raise OCR; strong data should result in strong signals on Thursday
BNZ believes current level of NZ$/A$ justified when looking at the trans-tasman fundamentals
6th Dec 13, 8:28am
BNZ believes current level of NZ$/A$ justified when looking at the trans-tasman fundamentals
2-10-year yield curve steepens further; BNZ see "fair value" for 2-year swaps at 3.70%
5th Dec 13, 8:26am
2-10-year yield curve steepens further; BNZ see "fair value" for 2-year swaps at 3.70%