Nick Smyth
Against a backdrop of improved sentiment for emerging market currencies, the NZD and AUD continue to show signs of recovery; US rates are tracking higher; NZ rates were higher across the curve yesterday
20th Sep 18, 7:40am
Against a backdrop of improved sentiment for emerging market currencies, the NZD and AUD continue to show signs of recovery; US rates are tracking higher; NZ rates were higher across the curve yesterday
US and Chinese equities have risen while the 10 year US Treasury yield broke above 3%, to its highest level since May; NZD and AUD have outperformed against a risk-on backdrop; tariffs largely shrugged off by markets
19th Sep 18, 7:59am
US and Chinese equities have risen while the 10 year US Treasury yield broke above 3%, to its highest level since May; NZD and AUD have outperformed against a risk-on backdrop; tariffs largely shrugged off by markets
So far, the market appears to have put more weight on the likely cancellation of US-China trade talks; USD reversed its gains from Friday; US 10 year Treasury yield broke above 3% last night
18th Sep 18, 7:59am
So far, the market appears to have put more weight on the likely cancellation of US-China trade talks; USD reversed its gains from Friday; US 10 year Treasury yield broke above 3% last night
More tariff threats and actions by the US on China affecting the US little at this time, but impact growing in China. EMs raise rates. US rate doves become hawks
17th Sep 18, 8:07am
More tariff threats and actions by the US on China affecting the US little at this time, but impact growing in China. EMs raise rates. US rate doves become hawks
US equities rose and US Treasury yields fell modestly; NZD is not much higher than this time yesterday; USD weakened after the CPI data; Turkish central bank raised its one week repo rate by a whopping 625bps, which has helped support EM currencies
14th Sep 18, 7:48am
US equities rose and US Treasury yields fell modestly; NZD is not much higher than this time yesterday; USD weakened after the CPI data; Turkish central bank raised its one week repo rate by a whopping 625bps, which has helped support EM currencies
The USD and US rates drift lower. US wants more trade talks with China. Fed sees 'restrictive' rates needed. Oil prices reach four year highs. Eyes on US CPI
13th Sep 18, 7:54am
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The USD and US rates drift lower. US wants more trade talks with China. Fed sees 'restrictive' rates needed. Oil prices reach four year highs. Eyes on US CPI
US Treasury yields moved higher overnight, with the 10 year rate closing in on 3%; NZD made a new low against the USD and sits just above 0.65; GBP is holding above the 1.30 level against the USD
12th Sep 18, 8:03am
US Treasury yields moved higher overnight, with the 10 year rate closing in on 3%; NZD made a new low against the USD and sits just above 0.65; GBP is holding above the 1.30 level against the USD
GBP rose after EU negotiator Michel Barnier said it was “realistic” to reach a deal with the UK by November; NZD is slightly lower against the USD, but has made multi-year lows against the GBP, EUR and JPY; NZ swap rates rose 1 to 2.5bps across the curve
11th Sep 18, 7:58am
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GBP rose after EU negotiator Michel Barnier said it was “realistic” to reach a deal with the UK by November; NZD is slightly lower against the USD, but has made multi-year lows against the GBP, EUR and JPY; NZ swap rates rose 1 to 2.5bps across the curve
Greenback and UST yields moved higher on US non-farm payrolls report, especially the rising wage rate component. Markets expect rate hikes from Fed. EU and UK find compromise
10th Sep 18, 7:40am
Greenback and UST yields moved higher on US non-farm payrolls report, especially the rising wage rate component. Markets expect rate hikes from Fed. EU and UK find compromise
ASB's economists suggest the neutral OCR is within a 2.5% to 3.5% range and could head lower with implications for borrowers, savers and policymakers
6th Sep 18, 9:27am
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ASB's economists suggest the neutral OCR is within a 2.5% to 3.5% range and could head lower with implications for borrowers, savers and policymakers
GBP strengthened after EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said the EU was prepared to offer a special deal to the UK; AUD is the weakest currency; NZD fell in response to the move lower in the AUD
30th Aug 18, 7:33am
GBP strengthened after EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said the EU was prepared to offer a special deal to the UK; AUD is the weakest currency; NZD fell in response to the move lower in the AUD
USD was mixed, but the NZD has moved up towards resistance around 0.6725; EUR initially moved up towards resistance near 1.1750, but it has since retraced back towards 1.1700; US Treasury yields moved higher
29th Aug 18, 7:48am
USD was mixed, but the NZD has moved up towards resistance around 0.6725; EUR initially moved up towards resistance near 1.1750, but it has since retraced back towards 1.1700; US Treasury yields moved higher
The US dollar continued where it left off on Friday, weakening across the board overnight, while US Treasury yields were modestly higher; the NZD is up only slightly from Friday’s close
28th Aug 18, 7:59am
The US dollar continued where it left off on Friday, weakening across the board overnight, while US Treasury yields were modestly higher; the NZD is up only slightly from Friday’s close
Markets take Powell's speech as 'dovish' despite asset price risk and labour market tightness comments. Fed sees more hikes to achieve 'neutral' rate position
27th Aug 18, 8:24am
Markets take Powell's speech as 'dovish' despite asset price risk and labour market tightness comments. Fed sees more hikes to achieve 'neutral' rate position
Both the DXY and broader Bloomberg DXY 0.5% lower, in part due to the Powell speech; CNY strength and USD weakness combined to help boost the NZD; AUD was the best performing currency
27th Aug 18, 8:12am
Both the DXY and broader Bloomberg DXY 0.5% lower, in part due to the Powell speech; CNY strength and USD weakness combined to help boost the NZD; AUD was the best performing currency
US and China to resume trade talks; amidst a sharp rise in the offshore Chinese Renminbi, the NZD and AUD are amongst the better performing currencies; Turkish lira continued its recent recovery
17th Aug 18, 7:54am
US and China to resume trade talks; amidst a sharp rise in the offshore Chinese Renminbi, the NZD and AUD are amongst the better performing currencies; Turkish lira continued its recent recovery
Emerging markets remaining under pressure, despite a further recovery in the Turkish lira; USD has continued to strengthen; NZD made a fresh low overnight; bond yields lower
16th Aug 18, 8:19am
Emerging markets remaining under pressure, despite a further recovery in the Turkish lira; USD has continued to strengthen; NZD made a fresh low overnight; bond yields lower
USD has continued to push higher overnight; EUR, GBP and AUD have all made new lows for the year; NZD is down slightly on the day but has outperformed most of the G10; NZ swap rates pushed higher yesterday
15th Aug 18, 7:51am
USD has continued to push higher overnight; EUR, GBP and AUD have all made new lows for the year; NZD is down slightly on the day but has outperformed most of the G10; NZ swap rates pushed higher yesterday
Turkey remains in the headlines after more volatility in the lira; developed market equities are modestly lower overnight and core bond yields are little changed; USD is stronger against emerging market currencies
14th Aug 18, 7:42am
Turkey remains in the headlines after more volatility in the lira; developed market equities are modestly lower overnight and core bond yields are little changed; USD is stronger against emerging market currencies
Macroeconomic situation in Turkey escalated into an all-out currency crisis; emerging market currencies were weaker and markets saw broad-based strength in the USD; NZD has fallen further to below 0.66; NZ rates experienced another substantial fall
13th Aug 18, 7:56am
Macroeconomic situation in Turkey escalated into an all-out currency crisis; emerging market currencies were weaker and markets saw broad-based strength in the USD; NZD has fallen further to below 0.66; NZ rates experienced another substantial fall
UST yields and US dollar fall on US Q2 GDP estimate. Fed's PCE inflation guage lower than expected. A NZD short squeeze likely. Eyes on big data and policy releases
30th Jul 18, 7:51am
UST yields and US dollar fall on US Q2 GDP estimate. Fed's PCE inflation guage lower than expected. A NZD short squeeze likely. Eyes on big data and policy releases
Trump and Juncker agree to hold off tariffs; EUR fell after Draghi confirmed that the ECB wouldn’t raise rates until after next summer; NZD has moved lower in sympathy with the EUR and remains firmly range-bound for now; UST yields stable
27th Jul 18, 8:08am
Trump and Juncker agree to hold off tariffs; EUR fell after Draghi confirmed that the ECB wouldn’t raise rates until after next summer; NZD has moved lower in sympathy with the EUR and remains firmly range-bound for now; UST yields stable
US equities moved higher overnight, helped in part by some conciliatory comments from President Trump; USD weakened across the board; NZD has pushed on to 0.6825; US 10 year Treasury yield is down 1bp
26th Jul 18, 7:48am
US equities moved higher overnight, helped in part by some conciliatory comments from President Trump; USD weakened across the board; NZD has pushed on to 0.6825; US 10 year Treasury yield is down 1bp
Markets respond to improved earnings and new China stimulus. Risk appetities rise. Copper rebounds. Eyes on US-EU summit. Bond yields stabilise
25th Jul 18, 7:58am
Markets respond to improved earnings and new China stimulus. Risk appetities rise. Copper rebounds. Eyes on US-EU summit. Bond yields stabilise
Signals the Bank of Japan is readying changes to its policy framework sets off market scramble likely to echo locally today. PBOC injects more liquidity. US yields rise, curve steepens
24th Jul 18, 8:08am
Signals the Bank of Japan is readying changes to its policy framework sets off market scramble likely to echo locally today. PBOC injects more liquidity. US yields rise, curve steepens
