NZD
Stalling US debt ceiling negotiations fray the market’s nerves, risk assets retreat. PMI’s indicate further divergence between manufacturing & services activity
24th May 23, 8:47am
Stalling US debt ceiling negotiations fray the market’s nerves, risk assets retreat. PMI’s indicate further divergence between manufacturing & services activity
Biden & McCarthy to meet this morning. Markets remain sanguine but volatility could spike should debt ceiling talks stall. Bar has been set high for RBNZ surprise following last week’s rates repricing
23rd May 23, 8:00am
Biden & McCarthy to meet this morning. Markets remain sanguine but volatility could spike should debt ceiling talks stall. Bar has been set high for RBNZ surprise following last week’s rates repricing
Debt ceiling negotiations stall as Biden attends G7 summit, resumes Monday. Fed chair Powell less hawkish than Fed colleagues, inflation still too high
22nd May 23, 8:16am
Debt ceiling negotiations stall as Biden attends G7 summit, resumes Monday. Fed chair Powell less hawkish than Fed colleagues, inflation still too high
Risk sentiment positive on improving debt ceiling narrative, equities climb. Hawkish Fed-speak supports higher bond yields and a higher US dollar. Market re-thinking the probability of a Fed pause; odds for 25bps growing
19th May 23, 7:58am
Risk sentiment positive on improving debt ceiling narrative, equities climb. Hawkish Fed-speak supports higher bond yields and a higher US dollar. Market re-thinking the probability of a Fed pause; odds for 25bps growing
Plans put in place to facilitate US debt ceiling deal. Biden cuts short foreign travel plans. Risk assets rally, S&P500 nears important re-test level, Nasdaq at 9mth high
18th May 23, 7:57am
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Plans put in place to facilitate US debt ceiling deal. Biden cuts short foreign travel plans. Risk assets rally, S&P500 nears important re-test level, Nasdaq at 9mth high
Risk sentiment negative as market participants await debt-ceiling progress. Weak activity data out China adds to the underwhelming re-opening story. AUD underperforms
17th May 23, 8:01am
Risk sentiment negative as market participants await debt-ceiling progress. Weak activity data out China adds to the underwhelming re-opening story. AUD underperforms
Risk sentiment positive amid hopes of positive debt ceiling negotiations. History informs volatility could spike in the days ahead should talks stall
16th May 23, 8:52am
Risk sentiment positive amid hopes of positive debt ceiling negotiations. History informs volatility could spike in the days ahead should talks stall
US consumer sentiment plummets as inflation expectations climb. Despite debt ceiling impasse US equities remain near top of prevailing ranges. Market jitters likely this week if congressional leaders fail to make progress
15th May 23, 9:49am
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US consumer sentiment plummets as inflation expectations climb. Despite debt ceiling impasse US equities remain near top of prevailing ranges. Market jitters likely this week if congressional leaders fail to make progress
Risk sentiment frayed; banking, debt ceiling and growth concerns persist. US equity indexes & other risk assets struggle to break out of current ranges. Bank of England delivers widely expected 25bps hike, GBP weakens
12th May 23, 7:58am
Risk sentiment frayed; banking, debt ceiling and growth concerns persist. US equity indexes & other risk assets struggle to break out of current ranges. Bank of England delivers widely expected 25bps hike, GBP weakens
US inflation for April in line with consensus: core inflation at 5.5% YoY. “X-date” looms: US debt ceiling impasse set to fray the market’s nerves. US equities and other risk sensitive assets probe the top of prevailing ranges
11th May 23, 8:02am
US inflation for April in line with consensus: core inflation at 5.5% YoY. “X-date” looms: US debt ceiling impasse set to fray the market’s nerves. US equities and other risk sensitive assets probe the top of prevailing ranges
US headline jobs growth & average hourly earnings stronger. US stocks rebound. Bullard (non-voter): recession is not the base case, soft landing back in play
8th May 23, 7:47am
US headline jobs growth & average hourly earnings stronger. US stocks rebound. Bullard (non-voter): recession is not the base case, soft landing back in play
US bond yields notably higher to start the week, supporting a firmer dollar. Dollar index setting up for key topside breakout. Will a hawkish Fed assist?
2nd May 23, 10:08am
US bond yields notably higher to start the week, supporting a firmer dollar. Dollar index setting up for key topside breakout. Will a hawkish Fed assist?
US equity markets extend higher following impressive week for tech behemoths. Japanese yen crunched as new BoJ Governor Ueda maintains policy settings
1st May 23, 8:21am
US equity markets extend higher following impressive week for tech behemoths. Japanese yen crunched as new BoJ Governor Ueda maintains policy settings
NZ 1Q CPI below 7% for first time in three quarters; still too high for comfort. NZD softer against major peers, largest decline vs AUD; falls over ¾ percent. US equities, yields dollar fall amidst multiple softer than expected data
21st Apr 23, 8:00am
NZ 1Q CPI below 7% for first time in three quarters; still too high for comfort. NZD softer against major peers, largest decline vs AUD; falls over ¾ percent. US equities, yields dollar fall amidst multiple softer than expected data
NZD tracks sideways replicating Tuesday’s range, starts near 62 US cents. UK CPI remains above 10%; additional 25bps BoE hike locked in
20th Apr 23, 8:00am
NZD tracks sideways replicating Tuesday’s range, starts near 62 US cents. UK CPI remains above 10%; additional 25bps BoE hike locked in
NZD modestly higher in muted trade, climbs back through 62 US cents. Strong China activity data indicative of further re-opening momentum. Hot UK wages growth adds to the BoE’s case for a 25bps hike in May
19th Apr 23, 7:59am
NZD modestly higher in muted trade, climbs back through 62 US cents. Strong China activity data indicative of further re-opening momentum. Hot UK wages growth adds to the BoE’s case for a 25bps hike in May
US bond yields & the dollar advance as bets firm for another 25bps hike. US dollar index basing, forms double bottom near 101.00 – further upside?
18th Apr 23, 9:05am
US bond yields & the dollar advance as bets firm for another 25bps hike. US dollar index basing, forms double bottom near 101.00 – further upside?
NZD aggressively U-turns, plunging from above 63 USc to end week near 62 USc. US bond yields & the dollar advance as Waller says Fed has more work to do. The Fed, bond market and equity market are at odds, which outlook is correct?
17th Apr 23, 8:03am
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NZD aggressively U-turns, plunging from above 63 USc to end week near 62 USc. US bond yields & the dollar advance as Waller says Fed has more work to do. The Fed, bond market and equity market are at odds, which outlook is correct?
US bond yields & the dollar advance as pricing firms for a 25bps Fed hike. Is Powell or bond market right – will the Fed be forced to cut rates in 2H?
12th Apr 23, 8:03am
US bond yields & the dollar advance as pricing firms for a 25bps Fed hike. Is Powell or bond market right – will the Fed be forced to cut rates in 2H?
NZD catapulted to 7 week highs near 0.6380, U-turns back below 63 USc. RBNZ delivers shock 50bps hike, worried about persistently high inflation. Soft ADP Employment & ISM Services PMI dents risk sentiment
6th Apr 23, 7:52am
NZD catapulted to 7 week highs near 0.6380, U-turns back below 63 USc. RBNZ delivers shock 50bps hike, worried about persistently high inflation. Soft ADP Employment & ISM Services PMI dents risk sentiment
US bond yields and the dollar retreat following soft jobs opening data. RBA pauses, keeps cash rate on hold at 3.60%, NZDAUD rips higher
5th Apr 23, 7:52am
US bond yields and the dollar retreat following soft jobs opening data. RBA pauses, keeps cash rate on hold at 3.60%, NZDAUD rips higher
US equities extend higher; Nasdaq logs largest quarterly gain since 2Q 2022. Softer-than-expected PCE data add weight to the Fed pausing in early May
3rd Apr 23, 9:05am
US equities extend higher; Nasdaq logs largest quarterly gain since 2Q 2022. Softer-than-expected PCE data add weight to the Fed pausing in early May
Banking turmoil now in the rear-view, focus turns back to macro data flow. China PMIs, eurozone inflation, US PCE, may deliver lively action today. Month-end and quarter-end flows could also contribute to volatility
31st Mar 23, 7:46am
Banking turmoil now in the rear-view, focus turns back to macro data flow. China PMIs, eurozone inflation, US PCE, may deliver lively action today. Month-end and quarter-end flows could also contribute to volatility
Risk assets push higher amidst a deafeningly quiet newsflow. Yields bounce from last week’s lows, but further strength may derail the risk rally
30th Mar 23, 8:14am
Risk assets push higher amidst a deafeningly quiet newsflow. Yields bounce from last week’s lows, but further strength may derail the risk rally
Banking sector concerns ease, producing an air of calm. US equity markets indecisive, yet to buy into the all-is-clear narrative. Rates markets move to partially price out 2H 2023 Fed rate cuts
29th Mar 23, 8:01am
Banking sector concerns ease, producing an air of calm. US equity markets indecisive, yet to buy into the all-is-clear narrative. Rates markets move to partially price out 2H 2023 Fed rate cuts