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The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Currencies
The Opening Bell: Where currencies start on Wednesday, February 17, 2016

By Dan Bell

The NZDUSD opens at 0.6560 (mid-rate) this morning.

The NZD is down against all its major trading partners following yesterdays disappointing inflation expectations  report and this morning’s global dairy trade auction.

The reserve bank’s inflation expectation survey fell from 1.83% to 1.63% (the lowest since 1994) while the expectation for inflation in 12mths dropped from 1.5% to 1.09%. On the back of this announcement the NZDUSD traded back toward 0.66 from a high of 0.6670.

This morning’s global dairy trade auction has extended  the NZD fall with the NZDUSD testing support at 0.6550. The GDT price index fell for the fourth time in a row, falling 2.8% from the previous auction on the 3rd of Feb, with an average selling price of $2,235 per tonne. With many economists expecting a fall of between 5-10% it appears that it is the 10% fall in volume that has pushed the NZD to its current lows.

Overnight German economic sentiment plummeted to a 16mth low dropping to 1.0 from 10.2 in January but ahead of the -0.1 forecast. The global economic slowdown and the falling oil prices were the main drivers for the fall.

Global equity markets are mixed - Dow +1.31%, S&P 500 +1.46%, FTSE +0.65%, DAX -0.78%, CAC -0.11%, Nikkei +0.20%, Shanghai +3.29%.

Gold prices are holding steady at $1209 an ounce, WTI Crude Oil is currently down 2.1% at $29.13 a barrel.

Current indicative rates:

NZDUSD       0.6560       -1.4%
NZDEUR       0.5888       -1.3%
NZDGBP       0.4592       -0.4%
NZDJPY         74.75        -2.0%
NZDAUD       0.9243       -0.8%
NZDCAD       0.9100       -1.1%


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Dan Bell is the senior currency strategist at HiFX in Auckland. You can contact him here »

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