A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Tuesday; BNZ & ANZ home loan changes, house values still falling, Grocery Commissioner named, Aussie data soft, swaps fall, NZD still firm, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop). This version is updated to record the fall in swap rates. See below.

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
BNZ raised most fixed rates today, but not by as much as some of their rivals. More here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes to report here today.

BLUEPRINT TO BUILD EXTENDED BUT ALSO WATERED DOWN
ANZ advised that they have withdrawn their 'Blueprint to Build' special mortgage interest rate, which was 5.88% floating. They have replaced it with a broader program that offers 'discounts' to their standard mortgage rates, which means that borrowers in this program can choose fixed rates now. The floating rate discount is -1.25%, so given their current standard floating rate is 8.64%, the BtB floating rate now becomes 7.29%. Access to fixed rates is also discounted, and by -0.6%. But that just makes the BtB fixed rates the same as their Special LVR under 80% rates which are also a -0.6% discount to their standard rates.

HOUSE PRICES VALUES STILL FALLING
The QV House Price Index (HPI) fell another 1.8% nationally in the three months to June. Since the peak in values at the beginning of 2022, the national average value is down $172,180, and the average value in Auckland has declined by $299,332.

GROCERY COMMISSIONER NAMED
Pierre van Heerden, the former Mojo Coffee and Sanitarium executive, is New Zealand’s first Grocery Commissioner. Van Heerden will monitor the state of retail supermarket competition and whether consumers are getting a fair deal, keep an eye on how retailers are treating suppliers, and investigate whether competitors are getting a decent offer from the newly-opened wholesale networks. He will also take charge of a range of potential enforcement actions, including fines.

GOING SOFT
Household spending was up just +3.3% in May in Australia compared to the same month a year ago. That is way less than inflation. And discretionary spending is now going backwards, falling for a second month in a row. It hasn't done that since the start of the pandemic.

AUSSIE SENTIMENT STAYS LOW
In Australia, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment index rose by +2.7% in July from June to a 3-month high. That matched matched the market consensus for this marker. The latest result followed a +0.2% gain in June as inflation eased and the RBA skipped further monetary tightening. But it was a minor gain and overall sentiment remains very low.

TURKEY CHANGES ITS TUNE
Not really something for this summary. But it is a surprise worth noting: Turkey has agreed to Sweden joining NATO.

SWAPS FALL
Wholesale swap rates are probably very little-changed today ahead of tomorrow's RBNZ rate review at 2pm. However, the real action in swap rates comes near the close. Our chart will record the final positions. (Update: they actually fell quite sharply. See chart below.) The 90 day bank bill rate is down -2 bps at 5.68% and now +20 bps above the 5.50% OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -6 bps from this time yesterday at 4.23%. The China 10 year bond rate is down a bit more than -1 bp to under 2.69%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate has eased back -4 bps to now at 4.90% to a new 12-year high, and still higher than the earlier RBNZ fix which rose +2 bps to 4.84%. That's its highest since December 2013. The UST 10 year yield has fallen back, and by -9 bps, to just on 4.00%.

EQUITIES MOSTLY HIGHER (EXCEPT THE NZX)
The S&P500 ended its Monday session on Wall Street up +0.2% managing to overcome small early session losses. Tokyo has opened its Tuesday session up +0.5%. Hong Kong has topped that at its open, up +0.8%. Shanghai is up +0.2% in their early trade. The ASX200 is the best of this buch, up +1.0% in afternoon trade. The odd-man-out is the NZX50 which is down -0.3% in late trade

GOLD HOLDS
In early Asian trade, gold is holding essentially unchanged from where we were this time yesterday, at US$1925/oz.

NZD HOLDS FIRM
The Kiwi dollar is marginally firmer, now at just on 62.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up slightly at just over 92 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 56.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is also up slightly to 70.3.

BITCOIN FIRMS SLIGHTLY
The bitcoin price has risen today and is now at US$30,597 US$30,111 which is up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been modest at just on +/- 1.7%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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