A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; auction sales tough, FHBs hold up mortgage market, 'misleading' MAS pinged, KiwiSaver funds have weak quarter, swaps up, NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
No changes to report today.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
BNZ reverted to 6.10% for its one year term deposit, ending its 6.25% 'special'. Also, see this.

MORE LISTINGS, MORE AUCTIONS, TOUGH SALES
Last week was the second busiest week of the year in the residential property auction rooms, but the sales rate dropped back to just 40%. And less than half sold at rating value or higher.

PERKING UP?
The latest RBNZ figures for October show first home buyers remain active in the market, while the long sleeping investors may just be showing signs of stirring.

MISLEADING
Medical Assurance Society has been ordered to pay a pecuniary penalty of $2.1 mln for making false and/or misleading representations to some customers.

RISK ON?
The VIX volatility measure has fallen to its lowest since January 2020, before the onset of the pandemic. The VIX is often referred to the 'fear gauge". (It is a popular measure of the American stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options.)

AND BRINGING UP THE REAR WAS ...
Kiwisaver funds under management reached $105.3 bln in September. This is up +$4.5 bln from June and up +$14.3 bln from a year ago. These rises are not impressive. They rose +$4.6 bln in the March 2019 quarter on a base of just $52 bln, so this latest increase is lame by comparison. Meanwhile the IRD reports that Kiwisaver contributions in the September quarter were $3.3 bln, so earnings for the quarter were only +$1.3 bln or +4.8% pa. Given you can get 6% in a six month term deposit (5.3% after tax for many contributors) you can see why the result should be considered lame. The NZ Super Fund managed +9.5% or double the KiwiSaver industry returns in the same period.

FUM WITHERS
Meanwhile, the total fund management sector saw funds exit, with FUM down -$3.2 bln as at September from June to $264.7 bln. It was first at this level in December 2021, but has struggled to grow since.

BANK DISCLOSURE DETAIL
The RBNZ has updated its Dashboard of bank data, and we have updated our Key Bank Metrics tool that runs off the same data. This is the basis of detailed comparisons between all retail banks. Analysis of this data will come later. It is a good basis to check market shares, for example.

USING LESS
In Australia, they are using less energy in their economy. In the household sector, continued growth in solar and wind production means that, for the first time, the output of electricity from these sectors in was greater than total household demand in the same period. (Although it was released today, this is data for the 2021/22 year.)

SWAPS RISE AGAIN
Wholesale swap rates have probably risen today across the curve. The real reaction will come at the close. Our chart will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is unchanged at 5.63% and now just +13 bps above the OCR. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -1 bp from this morning to 4.59%. The China 10 year bond rate is also down -1 bp at 2.72%. But the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +6 bps at 5.15%, and the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 5.03% which was up +3 bps today. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.50% and up +3 bps from this morning. The UST 2yr is now at 4.98% so that key curve inversion is unchanged at -48 bps.

EQUITIES BECALMED
The NZX50 is unchanged in Monday trade. The ASX200 is down -0.2% in early afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened unchanged. Hong Kong is up a mere +0.1% in its Monday opening. Shanghai is unchanged. Singapore is little-changed too. The S&P500 futures suggests that Wall Street will open tomorrow down -0.2%.

GOLD FIRM
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2008/oz and up +US$5 from this morning. If it closes tomorrow in New York at US$2010/oz or higher, it has a shot of a new all-time high (say the chartists). The all-time high was reached in August 2020 at US$2,075/oz

NZD LITTLE-CHANGED
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from this morning, still at 60.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are at 92.4 AUc and also little-changed. Against the euro we have dipped to 55.5 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is at 69.7 and marginally softer than this morning's open.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price has moved back up today, now at US$37,545 and up nearly +1.0% from where we opened this morning. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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