Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report so far today.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either.
HOPES TRUMP FACTS
The latest ASB housing confidence survey finds kiwis are sitting on the fence when deciding if it's a good time to buy a house. The last time NZers were this confident house prices would increase was - just before the housing market slump!
DOWN SHARPLY, BUT PROTECTING PAYROLLS
More components of the Q4 GDP result were released today. Manufacturing industry data shows the volume of finished goods stocks fell +1.4 in the December quarter compared with the same period a year earlier. Manufacturing sales volumes fell -3.4% after a -6.8% drop in September. The really big falls are coming from the meat & dairy sectors. Manufacturing purchases fell -$2.3 bln (-8.7%), while salaries and wages rose +$244 mln (+5.0%) compared with the December 2022 quarter.
FMA FILES COURT PROCEEDINGS AGAINST TOWER
The Financial Markets Authority (FMA) has filed civil court proceedings against insurer Tower for failing to apply multi policy discounts to eligible customers' premiums, resulting in about $9.5 million of overcharges. The alleged breach of the Financial Markets Conduct Act began in 2016, affecting about 65,000 customers and 81,200 policies. Tower Chairman Michael Stiassny says the insurer is disappointed the FMA has filed proceedings, and is focusing on identifying any further actions necessary to prevent overcharging. Stiassny says Tower self-reported the problem, apologises unreservedly and has so far remediated 58,000 customers to the tune of $9.26 million. The FMA is seeking a court declaration that Tower contravened the Act, and that a pecuniary penalty is paid to the Crown.
DOUBLING UP
Spark is issuing two unsecured, unsubordinated bonds totalling $300 mln, a 5yr and a 7yr, both retail bonds, both rated A- (investment grade). The 5yr pays 5.21% pa yield, the 7yr pays 5.45%. $125 mln will be used to repay an existing bond, the rest used "for general business purposes".
GOING SHORTER, DESPITE THE RATE
The one year home loan mortgage rate is by far the most popular choice by new borrowers, according to January RBNZ data. More here. The two year choice is fading fast even though lower rates are being offered for that term; only one in eight borrowers chose than in January.
TWENTY-NINE WINNING BIDS
In today's NZGB tender, 71 bids were competing for $500 bln in three maturities. More than $1.2 bln was bid. The Three year April 2027 tranche was only mostly popular, going for a yield of 4.54% and down from 4.80% three weeks ago. The May 2032 offer was very popular, and it also went for a yield of 4.55%, also down from 4.83% but that was back 15 weeks ago. The $50 mln May 2041 offer was won at 4.83%, down from 4.96% just one week ago.
A BIG LOSS
In the US, Google may have had its key AI code stolen and passed to China. And sadly, this case will reinforce nationality stereotyping that is growing in the US-vs-China rivalry.
FALLING AWAY
Australian lending for housing fell more than expected in January, trimming their year-on-year rise to +8.5%. For owner-occupiers, the monthly drop was -4.6% taking the year-ago change to just +3.4%.
WAGES RISE
In Japan, worker earnings rose by 2.0% in January from the same month a year ago, rising from a +1.0% gain in December and posting the highest reading in seven months.
SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates will probably be little-changed yet again today. Our chart below records the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down a minor -1 bp at 5.65%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -9 bps from yesterday at 4.01%. The China 10 year bond rate slipped an outsized -6 bps, now just under 2.27%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -5 bps to 4.71%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.69% and down -7 bps from yesterday. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.12% and down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The UST 2yr is now down to just on 4.56% and so that key inversion is out further to -44 bps.
EQUITY WINNERS & LOSERS
Wall Street ended up +0.5% the S&P500, in Wednesday trade. Tokyo has opened up +0.2% today but the Nikkei225 is looking like it might not hold. Hong Kong has opened down -0.4%. Shanghai is up +0.2%. Singapore has opened up +0.8%. The ASX200 is up +0.3% in afternoon trade. And the NZX50 is up +0.2% in late trade today.
OIL RISES
Oil prices are about +US$1.50 higher at just under US$79/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just under US$83/bbl.
GOLD UP YET AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold is now at US$2145/oz and up +US$18 in a day, and again to a new record high.
NZD FIRMS
The Kiwi dollar rose +½c from this time yesterday, now at 61.3 USc although all this gain was overnight. Against the Aussie we are marginally softer at 93.4 AUc. Against the euro we are +¼c firmer at 56.3 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is up +20 bps today, essentially making back yesterday's drop.
BITCOIN STILL VOLATILE
The bitcoin price is volatile again today, with the price now at US$65,776 and up +3.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been high at +/- 3.8% today.
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