Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
None today so far.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
None here either.
FLATTENING OUT
New analysis of residential property rental yields shows that after almost two years of improving yields, they took a breather at the end of 2023. The full analysis is here.
FOOD PRICE RISES QUASHED BY LOWER YEAR-ON-YEAR VEGETABLE & LAMB PRICES
Stats NZ says food prices fell -0.6% in February, while rent increases showed signs of stabilising and domestic airfares went up again. For food, this was the slowest annual pace rise at +2.1% since May 2021. The grocery food component is up +3.9% and more than the +3.7% Foodstuffs said its suppliers charged it in the same month.
RENTS STILL INFLATING HARD
House rents were up +4.5% nationally from a year ago in February. But the subcategory of rents for properties newly listed went up a sharp +6.0% nationally. It was +7.3% in Auckland, +2.2% in Wellington, and a massive +9.9% in Christchurch. In fact that is their third highest rise since 2013. Christchurch rent increases have been strong for 30 months now.
MORE EVIDENCE INFLATION IS NOT CONTAINED YET
Also inflating hard were petrol prices (up +12.3% from February a year ago), domestic airfares (up +7.7%), and local tourist accommodation (up +6.1%). However all these pale in comparison to the rise in international tourist accommodation (when prepaid in New Zealand), which rose more than +24% on the same basis. (The Taylor Swift effect ?) Gulp.
NOT AGING WELL. UPSIDE RISKS BUILDING
As a consequence of today's data release on prices, some analysts (Westpac for example) have already upped their inflation forecasts, in their case to 4.2%. That is well above the RBNZ's last MPS forecast of 3.8% for the March quarter (and going down from there). The RBNZ's forecast hasn't aged well and they will be well aware of that.
WILL UPDATE IN 2025
Under-funded Stats NZ today said it will be reviewing and revising the components of the CPI - but that work won't be released until April 2025.
HOUSE PRICE WATCH
The REINZ said it will release its February sales reports tomorrow (Thursday) at 9am. We will have full coverage.
PACE PICKING UP TO 2019 LEVELS
More than 36,000 people arrived in the country on work visas in the first two months of this year, more than half of them in February alone.
MORTGAGE BROKER SENTENCED
Natalie Ann Carter, a former Hawke’s Bay-based mortgage broker, has been sentenced to 12 months home detention following a criminal prosecution brought by the FMA. Carter pleaded guilty to three charges of forgery, tow of obtaining credit by deception exceeding, tow of attempting to obtain credit by deception, tow of using a forged document, knowingly misleading the FMA, and making a false or misleading statement. Imprisonment was ultimately commuted to 12 months home detention after discounts were applied.
EMERGENCY RESCUE OPERATION
In China a Beijing-directed rescue of property giant China Vanke is apparently underway. We should all hope it works. But even if it does it will take a tough toll on the Chinese economy, Shenzhen in particular.
IN CHINA, ALL DATA IS "NATIONAL SECURITY"
China's Ministry of State Security (MSS) is now increasingly focused on "food security". The MSS says “In recent years, national security agencies have cracked down various espionage activities related to food security, cutting off the "black hands" of foreign espionage targeting China's germplasm resources, preventing and addressing the risks of food security leaks, and ensuring the smooth implementation of the national food security strategy”. That will put paid to the normal global method of sending analysts into the field to assess upcoming grain and crop harvest (something necessary because satellite photos can't yet assess yield prospects - you need to be in the field.) Without that sort of crop intelligence from a major producer (China), global seasonal food planning is going to be far less accurate.
BIG JOB LOSSES
Media reports are suggesting that PwC Australia will swing the axe in the biggest round of job cuts in recent memory, with up to 400 staff set to be made redundant on today.
ONE CLEARED, TWO UNCERTAIN
And staying in Australia, prudential regulator APRA has cleared NAB (BNZ's parent) of having to hold extra capital due to inadequate governance issues. But is is strangely silent on both Westpac and ANZ who are also facing this capital penalty. CBA (ASB's parent) was never on the APRA radar.
SWAP RATES FIRMER
Wholesale swap rates have probably risen modestly today. Our chart below records the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp today at 5.64%. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps from yesterday at 4.02%. The China 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps to 2.36%. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.69%, while the earlier RBNZ fixing was at 4.61% and unchanged for a third straight day. The UST 10 year yield is now at 4.15% and up +5 bps from this time yesterday. The UST 2yr is now up to 4.59% and so that key inversion is unchanged at -44 bps.
EQUITY WINNERS & LOSERS
Wall Street rose strongly today with the S&P500 up +1.1%. Tokyo has opened its Wednesday session down another -0.5% after yesterday's hold. Hong Kong is little-changed today at its open. Shanghai however is down -0.6%. Singapore is up +0.6% at its open. The ASX200 is up +0.3% in early afternoon trade. The NZX50 is down -0.3% in late trade.
OIL HOLDS
Oil prices are marginally firmer today although little-changed at just over US$77.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is still just over US$82/bbl. This has had no noticeable impact on the global oil price.
GOLD LOWER
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$24 at US$2157/oz.
NZD SOFT
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday at 61.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are softish at 93.1 AUc. Against the euro we are also a tad softer at 56.3 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 is marginally lower at 70.3 today.
BITCOIN HOLDS HIGH
The bitcoin price is little-changed at US$71,935 easing just -0.1% from this this time yesterday. Volatility has been high at +/- 3.0% today.
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