A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Monday; rents inflationary, perceptions of inflation, consumer data right law progressed, big 'refresh' at Kāinga Ora, swaps and NZD stable, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you already work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE/LOAN RATE CHANGES
TSB has shifted its one year rate up from 6.99% to 7.14% today, +15 bps. UnityMoney raised its 6 month fixed rate.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
UnityMoney raised some TD rates nine months and less, but cut its 1 year rate. The Police Credit Union has trimmed rates too.

RENTS INFLATIONARY
The national median housing rent hit $600 per week, across all type of dwellings, in the first quarter this year, up +$35 or +6.2% Auckland rents were up by $50 a week. More here.

CROWD WISDOM?
A survey for the RBNZ reveals that consumer guesses still see inflation running much higher than the CPI. The survey median is currently +6.0% and the average +7.9%. (But I bet no-one in this survey actually did any calculations.) The March CPI was 4.0% (which is an accurate, consistent calculation). These same respondents see inflation falling to 4.0% in one year (median), 3.0% in two years, and 5 years hence. The same group see house prices unchanged in a year (median), rising to 8% in five years,

STILL WORKING THROUGH THE ISSUES
The Commerce Commission has extended its consideration of the Foodstuffs merger application. A decision from the Commission, whether to clear the application or issue a Statement of Unresolved Issues, is now due on Friday, June 21,  2024.

NOT SOMETHING YOU SEE ON THE NZX50 EVERYDAY - BASICS UP, BLING DOWN
Just note, on May 15, the Fonterra FCG share price was $2.38. After its big announcement, it has risen to $3.04 today. That's a +27.7% jump. It is back to the level it fell from when they reduced their milk price forecast on August 18, 2023, and when markets assumed there were internal earnings pressures in the cooperative. (MHJ however has been hit hard today, shedding almost -20%.)

NO ISSUE OF PDS
The FMA has filed civil proceedings against Rangi Wyatt Stephen Savage for making an unregulated public offer for the sale of shares in The Powder Shed Tokoroa. More than 160 investors applied to purchase shares in Powder Shed. Approximately 65,000 shares in the company were sold and issued to investors at USD$1.20 per share. Investors paid in USD and in cryptocurrency. The total amount obtained equates to approximately NZ$122,000.

CONSUMER DATA RIGHT LEGISLATION INTRODUCED
Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly has introduced the Customer and Product Data Bill to Parliament. This is New Zealand's consumer data right legislation, which aims to establish an economy-wide framework to enable greater access to, and sharing of, customer and product data between businesses, initially assisting with the development of open banking.

ALL CHANGE AT KAINGA ORA
The Mark Gosche-led Kāinga Ora board has now been replaced by a Simon Moutter-led board, running the 70,000 dwelling inventory worth over $45 bln. The new government 'refresh' is seeking much 'better performance' for the country's state-owned landlord after the Bill English review: "We were alarmed to learn, for example, that in the May 2023 board budget pack, there was no Statement of Financial Position, the budget assumed that new lending of several billion dollars from the Government would be approved, the build pipeline included a line entitled “Zero Net Growth” describing disposals of an indeterminate kind of over 3,000 homes per year, and did not provide a budget scenario where Kāinga Ora is limited to the funding agreed by the Government."

NO SHIFT ON THESE KEY RATES
The Chinese central bank left both its 1- and 5-year rates unchanged in their monthly review today, still at 3.45% and 3.95% respectively. The one year benchmark has been unchanged for nine consecutive months now, the five year benchmark for three. These 'holds' come amid a flurry of other loosening activity, targeted at reviving their property markets and saving the remaining large property developers.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates are likely to be little-changed today, perhaps marginally firmer. Our chart below will record the final positions. The 90 day bank bill rate is down -1 bp at 5.61%, a level it has hovered around for more than 70+ days. But this is actually its lowest in exactly one year. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -2 bps to 4.27% from this morning. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 2.32% and unchanged. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp to 4.67% from this morning and the earlier RBNZ fix was at 4.62% and up +1 bp from Friday. The UST 10yr yield is up +5 bps from yesterday at 4.37%. Their 2yr is now at 4.78%, so the curve has shifted out marginally to -41 bps inverted.

EQUITY MARKETS SIGNAL MORE GAINS
The NZX50 has started the week up a minor +0.1% (see above). The ASX200 is up +0.6% in afternoon trade. Tokyo has opened its Monday trade up a strong +1.4%. Hong Kong has opened up +0.6% and Shanghai is up +0.4% at its open. Singapore has opened unchanged. Wall Street looks like it might open higher tomorrow as well with the S&P500 futures currently +0.6% above its Friday close.

OIL SLIGHTLY FIRMER
The oil price is +50 USc higher from this morning, now just under US$80/bbl in the US, while now also now at just on US$84/bbl for the international Brent price.

GOLD RISES AGAIN
In early Asian trade, gold has risen +US$17 from where we opened this morning and up at US$2432/oz to new record high levels. Silver is up strongly too, to ten year highs.

NZD ON HOLD
The Kiwi dollar has is unchanged from this morning's open, still at 61.3 USc and holding its recent gains. Against the Aussie we are slightly softer at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also marginally softer at 56.4 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is still basically at 70.4.

BITCOIN UNCHANGED
The bitcoin price has also basically not moved either today since this morning, still at US$66,607 and a very minor -0.2% slip from this morning's open. Volatility of the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.3%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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