What happened Thursday

Economy / news

A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Thursday; housing market in winter mode, food prices rise faster, rent pressure eases, NZGBs get demand rush, swaps stable, NZD lower, & more

15th May 25, 3:59pm by David Chaston

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
No changes so far today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
There are none to report today either. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

AN AUTUMN CHILL
Housing sales and selling prices both edged lower in April, with REINZ saying buyers are being picky.

MORE SELLERS AGREE TO A LOSS
According to Cotality/CoreLogic, just over 9% of residential property sales nationally in Q1-2025 were made at a loss (sold for less than they were purchased for), with 14% of Auckland sales loss making. It is a proportion that just keeps on rising.

FOOD PRICE RISES GATHER MOMENTUM AGAIN
There was a surge in food prices that drove the annual increase up to 3.7% in April, their highest in 17 months. Statistics NZ's Selected Price Indexes also show that airfares shot up during the school holiday-Easter period.

RENTS GROW MUCH MORE SLOWLY
Rent increases are moderating fast now. From mid-2024 when they rose at a 4.7% annual rate, they have now dropped back to a +3.0% annual rate as at April 2025 which is at the lower end of the long stable decade from late 2011 to 2021. But this time, there is no indication that the falling trend has ended or is ending.

BUT POWER PRICES MUCH MORE QUICKLY
The same monthly monitoring shows that household electricity prices rose +6.0% in the year to April, and gas prices rose +11.2%. These increases are back near 15 year highs.

POPULATION UPDATE
Based on the 2023 Census as a starting point, our national population is now 5.33 mln as at March 2025. There were 58,500 births in that year, and 37,600 deaths. The median age is now 38.1 years, a record high, 38.9 for females and 37.3 years for males.

NZX DIPS, THEN RECOVERS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is firmish so far today, starting lower but now up +0.2% as the equity relief fally runs out of puff. That means it is up +2.7% for the past week, down -2.0% since the start of the year, and up +11.1% from this time last year. There are 46 gainers led by The Warehouse, EROAD, Heartland and Northport/MMH. There are 36 decliners led by Gentrack, Ryman, Vector, Meridian and Goodman Property.

BANGING DOWN THE DOOR
Treasury's latest bond tenders were rushed by investors, with high demand. The $450 mln attracted 131 bids worth $2.1 bln. Yield rose from the last equivalent offer for all durations. This has all the hallmarks of a 'flight to safety'.

INTEREST RATE SET
Summerset said its $150 mln six year bond offer has closed and the interest rate will be 5.70% (base 3.75% plus a 1.95% margin).

A GROWING WORKFORCE
Australia added +75,500 jobs in April, almost 47,500 of them full-time positions. Their employed workforce grew +2.75% in the past year. Their jobless rate eased to 4.1% from 4.3% (although staying at 4.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis which is the metric others report). Inflation pressure plus this strong jobs report might have the RBA re-thinking the wisdom of a rate cut.

SWAP RATES HOLD
Wholesale swap rates may be little-changed at the short end but with a slight steepening curve. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -2 bps at 3.35% on Wednesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +7 bps at 4.60%. The China 10 year bond rate is holding higher at 1.68%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 4.72% and was up +5 bps to 4.70% in the earlier RBNZ fix today from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is on 4.54%, up +7 bps.

EQUITIES RELIEF RALLY STALLS
The NZX50 is up just +0.2% today, and the ASX200 is also up +0.2% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -1.1 in early Thursday trade. Hong Kong has dipped -0.1% while Shanghai is down -0.4%. Singapore has opened up +0.4%. Wall Street rose very modestly today, with the S&P500 up just +0.1% in Wednesday trade.

OIL RETREATS
The oil price is down -US$1.50 to just over US$61.50/bbl in the US, and just on US$64.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE JUMPS
The carbon price jumped +$2.60 today to NZ$55.50/NZU but still on modest volumes. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DROPS
In early Asian trade, gold is lower, down US$74/oz from this time yesterday at US$3155/oz.

NZD EASES LOWER
The Kiwi dollar is down -40 bps from this time yesterday, now at 59.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 52.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 67.6 and down -30 bps.

BITCOIN HOLDS
The bitcoin price is at US$103,111 and virtually unchanged from the US103,530 at this time yesterday. Volatility has been low at +/- 0.7%.

Daily exchange rates

Select chart tabs

Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

Daily swap rates

Select chart tabs

Source: NZFMA

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

Keep abreast of upcoming events by 8ollowing our Economic Calendar here ».

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

21 Comments

by Speedmax | 15th May 25, 4:21pm 1747282892

Buyers being picky - how dare they?!

by IT GUY | 15th May 25, 5:37pm 1747287451

exploring alternative options......

just spray and wokaway

by profile | 15th May 25, 4:44pm 1747284267

our national population is now 5.33 mln - Selling passports and visa's is rife - though at least our corruption is more diverse now.

"A Lamborghini-driving security company boss accused of exploiting migrant workers has been fined $1000 and his business has been banned from recruiting overseas staff."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/seal-security-director-chetan-kumar-fined…

by Foxglove. | 15th May 25, 5:11pm 1747285917

There is no greater threat to any society of value, than corruption that hides in plain sight.

by Speedmax | 15th May 25, 5:14pm 1747286071

Spot on. NZ drifting down a dangerous path here, needs much stronger action than $1000 slap on the wrist

by IT GUY | 15th May 25, 5:54pm 1747288447

Indian Cooks and security guards
Thai tilers
Chinese painters

Hate to burst your bubble but corrupt immigration has been going on for 15 years plus under both admins.

Both admins seem in such a hurry to add humans to NZ they just do not care. the only time it stopped was when borders closed under covid, then reopened and it went nuts as they let ANYONE self approve almost anyone and Mr Kumar went nuts

by kiwikidsnz | 15th May 25, 5:57pm 1747288644

"Be kind..."

"More than 200,000 migrants were granted fast-track residence in a post-lockdown policy"

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/509162/capacity-to-deal-with-expect…

by IT GUY | 15th May 25, 6:20pm 1747290046

The workers came into New Zealand on the Accredited Employer Work Visa scheme, which was set up after the Covid-19 border closures to streamline processes for employers to get overseas staff into the country.

The scheme was based on a high trust model and led to a surge in migrant exploitation, with multiple cases of workers paying illegal premiums for jobs that were often non-existent.

Sadly it was mainly migrants exploiting new migrants via cash payments to agents back in the far country, of which at least 50% I suspect would have moved to the NZ Side.

by singautim | 15th May 25, 10:20pm 1747304427

I'm a migrant but now Kiwi. The exploiting of new immigrants is done by Kiwis. The fact that they were not born here is irrelevant. Any welfare state will be a magnet for immigrants. Any sane country would consider residency and citizenship as priceless gifts. Denmark does. Our failure to have a honest rort free system of immigration is pure naivety proving our MPs are out of touch with the real world.

by interesting1234 | 16th May 25, 1:07pm 1747357642

The exploiting of new immigrants is done by Kiwis.

Something tells me this is a changing dynamic. For example the rising number of articles popping up of migrant exploitation in liquor stores, dairies by owners bringing in workers from their homelands.

by Let me be Frank | 15th May 25, 5:58pm 1747288728

yep...Trump is just the most blatant example....plenty going on closer to home.

by IT GUY | 15th May 25, 5:59pm 1747288798

I thought he was trying to return illegals home?

by Foxglove. | 15th May 25, 6:32pm 1747290764

Not so seemingly before the 2016 run. Local talk in the vicinity of our old neighbourhood in NJ, and near to a couple of his golf courses, was that before then, the maintenance staff etc employed there, were largely recruited from those types.

by Let me be Frank | 15th May 25, 7:26pm 1747293963

Those doing the exploiting are not illegals

by Rhumline | 15th May 25, 7:47pm 1747295243

... and in the meantime. Health New Zealand announce 377 further cuts of people who make the whole system work, while management roles continue to grow? Here's a fact that many on this site choose to ignore. A good public service needs people with age and experience who're not looking over their shoulder for the next cull. They take a 'conservative' view (be it left or right) by asking the politicos of the day "...have you really thought this through?" We are in a world where experience is not valued and the public sector is regarded as a drag on the economy, life etc. That sort of thinking breeds insecurity and incompetence in the public sector - those who value their role and make a difference are encouraged to leave, those who can't double down.

by kiwikidsnz | 15th May 25, 10:31pm 1747305081

In 6 years Labour increased the public service staff by ~18000 / ~40%, including several thousands in the months immediately prior to the election. With no significant improvement in public services

"Age & experience" ? Jobseeker at average $100k pa for Labours acolytes ?

"...people who make the whole system work, while management roles continue to grow?" eg. "In the people and culture team 613 jobs were slated to go, while 119 communications and engagement roles." And half the roles are vacant.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/558475/more-than-2400-jobs-on-the-l…;

Remember the $2Billion Andrew Little put into the mental health - that disappeared with nothing to show for it. Not "making a difference" at all.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/programmes/in-depth-special-projects/story/201891…;

by powerdownkiwi | 15th May 25, 10:17pm 1747304255

Rhumbline, you have to realise that KKNZ is a tout.

Mention something knocking the current circus and - zang, there it is.

As with all spin, it doesn't mention what those people were hired for. Societal advancement, is the answer. This lot are like sex-workers, doing what they're told for the money. Those who pay them, don't want to support others, or a greater society, or a more cohesive community - they just want to advance their own short-term status.

Dogs - fleas.

by kiwikidsnz | 15th May 25, 10:26pm 1747304772

While you continue to personally abuse people who don't agree with your world view echo chamber you conveniently choose to ignore that I also post comments on the Coalitions many "opportunities to improve".

by Pa1nter | 16th May 25, 5:04am 1747328691

As with all spin, it doesn't mention what those people were hired for. Societal advancement, is the answer

That is the ideal.

And not to promote the current crowd, but the previous one had a bad habit of hiring "generimanager" types, with a decent ability to tick boxes and play the game, but a profound lack of knowledge and experience in the functions they were tasked to oversee. Just from my own interaction with them.

"Oh I see, you're the performance manager, and you want to have a daily meeting with me, to see how we can speed the project along. I can think of one way, off the top of my head....."

by Kate | 15th May 25, 10:18pm 1747304281

This has all the hallmarks of a 'flight to safety'.

I suspected as much.

It's just getting worse 'over there' every day.

I watched today's Ways and Means Committee (the budget) hearing in full - the majority of Americans won't know what hit them. The 'slight of hand' / shenanigans / dicks everyone-but-those-earning-$400K plus. It's a budget that seems to be designed to wipe out what is left of middle class America.

For example, there is an existing child tax credit of $2,500 per child, currently paid in equal increments throughout the year. That tax credit remains, but is only to be paid on earned income above a certain level - and only at year end. Low paid families miss out entirely. When a member of Congress asked what the estimate is of the number of children that will miss out - the response was an estimated 7 million children.

And that's just one example.

by powerdownkiwi | 15th May 25, 10:26pm 1747304782

It was aways going to get ugly as the Limits to Growth hit. Donella Meadows pointed out a long time ago, that the dominant System will subsume all others in an attempt to continue. That System was a linear extrract/consume/discard one, and in the way the trading was set up, wealth stratified. And the top strata got more and more hold on leadership, via bought votes (same in NZ - look what Chris Bishop stooped to being, pre-Parliament).

Since perhaps the mid-80s, the lower classes have been increasingly disenfranchised, culminating in 2008. That was the point there the middle-classes got hammered too - though they didn't know it because house prices and because debt. Now they're increasingly tapped-out too; what once looked like a bell-curve now looks like a slope.

The joke - and it's on the 3-ring circus running NZ at the moment, as much as on Musk and Co - is that growth is a gone-burger. Which means their system is facing near-term collapse. Which will be worse than you imagine...