A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; no retail rate changes, DCS ducks being lined up; record trade surplus, new sentiment survey grim, ASIC accuses Resimac, swaps stable, NZD firms, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
There are no changes to report today. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
No changes here either. Update: The Cooperative Bank has trimmed its 12 and 18 month TD rates. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

GETTING PREPARED FOR A FAILURE
The RBNZ issued guidance today to deposit takers that requires them to a a "prepositioned DCS depositor page" in the even they fail and require the guarantee to be activated for their depositors. This is a page that shows how to record an alternative bank account number that could be used to speed the transfer of compensated funds. Deposit takers must have this page ready from July 1 when the Depositor Compensation Scheme (DCS) is activated.

BUSINESSES UNHAPPY
A major new Reserve Bank survey shows businesses have across-the-board expectation of rising inflation. This first official release of results from the new survey the Reserve Bank has spent a lot of time developing have provided something of a headache for the central bank ahead of next week's Official Cash Rate decision.

JUST 10c BETTER OFF IN APRIL
There were no change to home loan affordability for first home buyers in April as house prices move sideways and the market waits for news on further interest rate cuts, if any.

AG EXPORTS HIT IT OUT OF THE PARK
Bumper exports of dairy, meat, fruit and wood have driven a record monthly goods trade surplus of over +$1.4 bln in April. A year ago, we recorded a small trade deficit in April . Imports came in lowish which was also a factor bumping up the surplus. The banner April monthly trade balance result shrank the year-to-April trade deficit to -$4.8 bln, or just -1.1% of economic activity (GDP).

STEADY AS SHE GOES
The latest dairy auction, deep in our dairy offseason, was basically a 'hold' with priced falling -0.85% in USD and +0.5% in NZD terms. Volumes sold were on the low side, consistent with the season. This is a result that won't be changing any farm gate payout forecasts. NZX analysts now expect Fonterra to set its first 2025/26 new season payout at $8.75 - $10.25/kgMS (midpoint $9.50), repeating its pattern of conservative early season estimates. For the current 2024/25 season, at least $10/ksMS seems locked in now.

COMCOM INTERCHANGE DECISION COMING BY END OF JULY
The Commerce Commission says its final decision in a review of the interchange fees businesses pay to accept Mastercard and Visa payments will be issued by July 31. The draft decision, released in December, proposed fee reductions.

CARD USE STILL RESTRAINED
Credit card billings were lower in April 2025 than April 2024, but the way Easter fell in these two Aprils affected that. Adjusting for that seasonality suggests these billings were up +1.0% in a year. But recall CPI inflation was 2.5%, so real credit card activity clearly fell. Users are less active too. They seem to be doing that so as not to extend their debt exposure because the proportion of credit card debt incurring interest remains little-changed and 'low' in an historical perspective.

NZX FIRMS
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +0.5% so far today. It is down -0.5% for the past week, down -2.7% since the start of the year, but up +8.9% from this time last year. F&P Healthcare, Serko, SkyCity, and Tourism Holdings are todays biggest gainers as Skellerup, Vector, Gentrack, and Air New Zealand top the decliners

'RESIMAC WAS TOO TOUGH'
Aussie regulator ASIC is suing home loan manager Resimac alleging failures to customers facing financial hardship. ASIC alleges thousands of home loan customers suffering financial distress were impacted by the failure of Resimac to ensure it provided appropriate care when responding to hardship applications, as required by its credit license.

AUSSIE ECONOMY ON A SLOWING TRACK
The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, slowed to 0.2% in April from 0.5% in March.

AUSSIE WAGES UP +5.8% IN YEAR TO MARCH
In a new update, the ABS said Aussie employers pais a record AU$104.8 bln in salaries and wages in March. Annual growth ranged from +3.7% in the mining industry to +11.9% in Electricity, gas, water and waste services. In dollar terms, the rises were greatest in the healthcare and social assistance services industry (+$1.1 billion or +7.8%), public administration and safety (+$0.6 billion or +8.1%), and construction ($0.6 billion or +7.1%).

EXPORT ORDER SURGE
Taiwanese export orders surged almost +20% in April from a year ago to US$56.4 bln and easily exceeding market expectations of a +10% increase. This is their best month ever, outside the distorted period of the pandemic and its aftermath when volatility reigned.

SWAP RATES STILL ON HOLD
Wholesale swap rates may be little-changed at the short end again today and higher for longer maturities. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was down -1 bp at 3.32% on Tuesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -3 bps at 4.49%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.67%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is up +2 bps at 4.72% but was down -1 bp to 4.63% in the earlier RBNZ fix today from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is on 4.51%, up +6 bps.

EQUITIES MIXED
The NZX50 is up +0.6% today, and the ASX200 is up +0.7% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is down -0.1 in early Wednesday trade. Hong Kong has risen +0.8% at its open while Shanghai is up +0.4%. Singapore has opened down -0.2%. Wall Street ended its Tuesday session with the S&P500 down -0.4%.

OIL UP
The oil price is up +US$1 at just on US$63/bbl in the US, and now just on US$66.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price is unchanged today at NZ$56/NZU with still-tiny volumes. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD RISES
In early Asian trade, gold is much higher, up +US$90/oz from this time yesterday at US$3301/oz.

NZD FIRMS MARGINALLY
The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday, now at 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 92.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 52.5 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now at 67.8 and +20 bps firmer.

BITCOIN FIRMS SLIGHTLY
The bitcoin price is at US$106,919 and up +0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility has remained modest at +/-1.4%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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