Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).
MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB has joined ANZ trimming its fixed rates. Basically they are matching rivals’ earlier moves.More here. All rates are here.
TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
We have seen cuts to term deposit rates from ANZ, ASB. Mutual Credit Finance, and WBS so far today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.
APOLOGIES
We suffered through a longish outage today that only affected logged-in users. We are sorry for the disruption, and that we couldn't post articles during this time. (We are not certain the problem has been completely resolved. If it resurfaces, this story may only be partly finished.)
GREAT MORTGAGE RESET UNDERWAY
Latest monthly RBNZ figures show a substantial move to longer fixed term mortgages is happening, while, separately, investors are slowly taking more of an interest in the market.
PRICES RETREAT I
Selling prices are falling and stock for sale is at 17-year high, according to dominant Auckland realtor Barfoot & Thompson. Their latest monthly median selling price is down -$311,500 from 2021 peak, down -$5,500 in a month. The number of sales transactions rose from the same month a year ago, but May 2024 was a lowish base. But it does show you can sell if you “meet the market”, but a falling market at that.
PRICES RETREAT II
There was a small retreat for dairy prices at today's full GDT auction, down overall by -1.6%. But in NZD the drop was more pronounced, down -3.0%.
POPULATION PROJECTIONS
New projections out today from Stats NZ shows that the current (Dec-24) population of just under 5.3 mln is likely to reach 6 mln before 2040 (in 15 years time). Before that in six years it could be 5.8 mln. Population growth will continue but will slow as the there will be about 1 mln people aged 65 and over in 2028. (In 2040, the Australian population is expected to be 34 mln, up from the current 27.6 mln.)
NZX50 RISES
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +1.2% so far today and rising. It is down -1.0% for the past week, down -4.7% since the start of the year, but up +4.8% from this time last year. There are 56 gainers today, led by Vulcan Steel, Mercury, a2 Milk, and Investore. There are 30 decliners today, led by Tourism Holdings, Restaurant Brands, NZME, and Contact. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.4% in late trade.
BIG NEW SECURITISATION
UDC is launching a floating rate note issue securitising up to $600 mln of car finance and equipment-backed commercial receivables.
FIRM DEMAND, LOWER SUPPLY, EQUALS HIGHER PRICES
Rabobank is reporting that beef pricing has trended higher in the first half of 2025 across all major beef supplying countries, and an expected dip in global supply should help keep pricing at healthy levels over coming months. Lower production is happening in many countries, including New Zealand. Demand is holding up in most markets.
'SIGNIFICANT SLOWING'
Australia released its Q1-2025 GDP growth data today. Their economy grew +0.2% in Q1-2025 from Q4-2024, slowing from +0.6% in Q4 and falling short of the +0.4% expected by analysts. This marked the 14th quarter of expansion but the softest pace in three quarters. On an annual basis, the GDP expanded +1.3%, holding steady for the second straight quarter but missing the expected +1.5% rise.
LESS NET DEBT
As at the end of March 2025, Australia had a positive net foreign equity position of +AU$730 bln (more investments offshore that foreigners had in Australia), but they had foreign debt liabilities of -AU$1.402 tln. So their net international investment position (IIP) was -AU$672.6 bln. On a per capita basis that is -AU$24,350. As at March 2024 it was -AU$26,250, so a sharpish 7.2% improvement.
SLIDING
In the US, vehicle sales tumbled in May, falling to an annual rate of 15.65 million units. That was well short of analyst's cut-down expectations of 16.3 million and the steepest monthly decline in nearly five years. In April, sales ran at a 17.25 million rate and that was itself below the 17.8 mln rate in March when buyers rushed to get ahead of anticipated tariff-tax price hikes. Although sales at a 15.65 mln rate isn't nothing, it does indicate the margins of this market is quite price sensitive.
SWAP RATES DIP SLIGHTLY
Wholesale swap rates are probably marginally softer. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.32% on Tuesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -6 bps at 4.25%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at under 1.71%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -7 bps at 4.67% and was down -2 bps to 4.59% in the earlier RBNZ fix today from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is still on 4.45%, unchanged.
EQUITIES RISE
The NZX50 is up +1.0% so far today, and the ASX200 is up +0.8% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.0% in early Wednesday trade. Hong Kong is up +0.5% at its open while Shanghai is up +0.3%. Singapore has opened down -0.3%. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with a +0.6% gain on the S&P500.
OIL FIRMISH AGAIN
The oil price is marginally firmer at just under US$63.50/bbl in the US, and just on US$65.50/bbl for the international Brent price.
CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price is unchanged today at NZ$55/NZU on tiny volume. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.
GOLD DIPS SLIGHTLY
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$8/oz from this time yesterday at US$3365/oz.
NZD EASES VERY MARGINALLY
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday, now at 60 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 52.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now still just on 66.2 and little-changed from yesterday.
BITCOIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$105,547 and down -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been quite low at +/-0.9%.
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34 Comments
There was a small retreat for dairy prices at today's full GDT auction, down overall by -16%. But in NZD the drop was more pronounced, down -3.0%.
As I pointed out y'day, China is potentially going into a full deflationary environment. I think it's fair to say that dairy and agricultural export prices to China will be impacted if this is the case.
It's fair to say that in the crypto space that companies holding BTC on their balance sheets is the latest 'bubble'. MetaPlanet's stock price - up 2,500% in 12 months. Y'day, Metaplanet was Japan’s #1 stock by both trading value and volume. ¥222 billion ($1.51 billion) in trading value; 170 million shares traded.
Now, a US-based sports betting and iGaming technology company Sharplink has aggressively pivoted toward Ethereum as the centerpiece of its corporate treasury strategy. SharpLink filed with the SEC to issue up to $1 billion in common shares, with the explicit intention of using almost all proceeds to purchase Ethereum for its corporate treasury.
Stock price up 1,000+% in past 2 weeks. Make of it what you will.
That is “Highly illogical Captain”
I was grappling with reconciling how Metaplanet's stock price had increased 25x while the price of BTC had only increased 53% over same time period. A key point I've learnt is understanding BTC Yield--measures the percentage change over time in the ratio between Bitcoin holdings and the fully diluted share count. It answers the question of 'is the company accumulating more Bitcoin per share, benefitting shareholders.'
A rising BTC Yield indicates the company is effectively increasing Bitcoin per share, a key goal for Bitcoin treasury companies.
The favourable returns and optimistic outlook for beef meat is opportune and perhaps not all of the success, all that recognisable. All those that were able to convert farmland from sheep to dairying should thus feel not only vindicated but perhaps even precognitive as it has been virtually a double movement. Firstly milk itself in its variety of export form and secondly the culling of the herd yields high quality lean grinding meat essential in production of the good old hamburger , especially the gigantic Nth American market.
It will meat expectations?
Provided you don’t mince your words.
my mi steak
Oh, a knee jerky reaction?
I don't get it. A small retreat of - 16% but pronounced in NZD to 3%. How can that be, even with the small drop in the dollar.
And 16% is hardly a small drop!
A mistake as should be 1.6%
Yeah Zach, I should have read the morning edition first, they got it right there.
Why the welfare and preferential treatment system is on borrowed time. With no migration population peaks in early 2040s. Replacement birthrate is now regarded as "very high scenario" by Stats.
"This means that for every person aged 65+, there will be about 3.1 people aged 15 to 64 years in 2038, 2.8 in 2051, and 2.0 in 2078. This compares with 3.9 people in 2024 and 7.1 in the mid-1960s."
https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/national-population-proj…
Hopefully in the future young people wont have to struggle so much just to get a job.
There will be even less, as they will goto aussie to avoid paying for the other peoples super
Why the welfare and preferential treatment system is on borrowed time.
Do you mean why universal super is on borrowed time?
I agree. Means-testing can't come soon enough.
pretty ruthless in aussie
https://www.australiansuper.com/retirement/retirement-articles/2019/06/…
Yes. The asset test link you provided includes the link to the income test which is also worth a read. Noting for eg: "If you have a partner, their income will be assessed jointly with yours."
I have a 65yo relative who has been in Oz >20years, also a citizen. Limited assets apart from own home & Oz workplace Super fund. Will now age qualify for both A & NZ pension at 67 & is seriously considering returning to NZ then because he won't be able to work more than 1 day/wk without pension abatement & his wife is 20+ years younger & will be working for a while yet.
OTOH, another 68yo relative living in Oz >20years who also worked & paid taxes all her life until severe physical & mental health issues at 65, has no assets or income apart from Oz pension (via ANZ govt social security agreement) is much better off remaining in Oz. Assets approx <$50k are not included in subsidised aged care means test. Medical care also much more accessible.
Sounds like we need to means test ASAP to stop a flood of the former coming to NZ and adding pressure to an already strained pension scheme and healthcare system.
Sounds like people who worked & paid taxes all their lives to support others & qualify themselves in 2 countries should expect their entitlements to be stolen by those who can't get off the couch.
The core issue is the flawed fundamental premise that each generation would be larger than the last in order to fund their predecessors. The realisation that this is not the case anymore dictates that fundamental structural change is required. If the status quo stays and the pension scheme went kaput would the same people bleat more, or less that change should have been enacted? Stats NZ seems to think so with 2.1 people per 65+yr old come 2050 vs 7.1 working age people per retiree in the mid 60’s. Just because we want nothing to change, doesn't preclude change being forced upon us by necessity.
Means-testing can't come soon enough.
You can only subsist on superannuation. Many retirees have worked hard to acquire other assets to help make their retirement more comfortable and superannuation payments have been part of that planning. The government encouraged people to do this. Most retirees need both superannuation and their other investments.
Only if they swallowed toe horsepoo.
Not if they understood the way things were going to go, and prepared accordingly.
And that includes understanding that MONEY IS NOT A STORE OF WEALTH.
Which few do.
Means testing would allow for higher payments to allow a slightly better standard of living, as those not in need of super wouldn't be able to draw it. Thus resolving your qualm.
Means tested Super? At present Super is taxed at the individuals tax rate - a sort of means test for average workers. If you mean reduce Super dollar for dollar with earnings then a recipe for cheating. If you mean don't pay Super to those with assets (as per accommodation allowance) then a second recipe for cheating. The idea of means-testing beyond income tax is just too trusting with the moderately world-wise finding loopholes and the innocent losing out. Great idea for benefitting financial advisers, lawyers and govt bureaucrats.
Something has to be done - change age to 67 and pay less.
Paying less cant work as it is already a pittance for those who rely on it. Australia can do it, we can do it.
With no migration
When did they announce we were halting migration?
Everything is lining up for global migration on a scale never seen before in the planet's history this century.
Also, low births is only one part of the worker to retiree ratio ballooning. The other is because there was a baby boom, and they've lived longer on average, than any previous humans.
and they only start at 67 in Aussie, we have left this very late to address and now the pollie class to scared to act
That's the dichotomy of democracy. Most people want wasn't isn't feasible, or all the benefits and none of the downsides.
The development of Auckland motorways with a highway connecting to Hamilton makes me think they are planning for population growth and migration will be the only way to achieve that.
You can see it all coming a mile away. If you're not so blind as to think the current migration situation is forever, and that the government will appease anti migration sentiment.
On a positive note, NZ may also find some multinational offices move here in the mid future also.
Is that a positive?
If you're into introducing higher income, higher productivity jobs to the country. That seems to be a fairly desired thing on these tomes.
Although name the thing, I'm sure we can find someone here that doesn't like it.
Topical (radio New Zealand):
New Zealand's population is likely to reach six million before 2040, from the current 5.3 million, according to latest projections.
Stats NZ estimates two thirds of that growth will come from from international migration.
The projections released on Wednesday showed the population growing to about 7 million by 2060, and potentially nearly 8 million by the late 2070s.
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