A review of things you need to know before you sign off on Wednesday; more retail rate cuts, Barfoot prices lower, dairy prices lower, new population projections, more vehicle securitisations, swaps stable, NZD holds, & more

Here are the key things you need to know before you leave work today (or if you work from home, before you shutdown your laptop).

MORTGAGE RATE CHANGES
ASB has joined ANZ trimming its fixed rates. Basically they are matching rivals’ earlier moves.More here. All rates are here.

TERM DEPOSIT/SAVINGS RATE CHANGES
We have seen cuts to term deposit rates from ANZ, ASB. Mutual Credit Finance, and WBS so far today. All updated term deposit rates less than 1 year are here, for 1-5 years, they are here.

APOLOGIES
We suffered through a longish outage today that only affected logged-in users. We are sorry for the disruption, and that we couldn't post articles during this time. (We are not certain the problem has been completely resolved. If it resurfaces, this story may only be partly finished.)

GREAT MORTGAGE RESET UNDERWAY
Latest monthly RBNZ figures show a substantial move to longer fixed term mortgages is happening, while, separately, investors are slowly taking more of an interest in the market.

PRICES RETREAT I
Selling prices are falling and stock for sale is at 17-year high, according to dominant Auckland realtor Barfoot & Thompson. Their latest monthly median selling price is down -$311,500 from 2021 peak, down -$5,500 in a month. The number of sales transactions rose from the same month a year ago, but May 2024 was a lowish base. But it does show you can sell if you “meet the market”, but a falling market at that.

PRICES RETREAT II
There was a small retreat for dairy prices at today's full GDT auction, down overall by -1.6%. But in NZD the drop was more pronounced, down -3.0%.

POPULATION PROJECTIONS
New projections out today from Stats NZ shows that the current (Dec-24) population of just under 5.3 mln is likely to reach 6 mln before 2040 (in 15 years time). Before that in six years it could be 5.8 mln. Population growth will continue but will slow as the there will be about 1 mln people aged 65 and over in 2028. (In 2040, the Australian population is expected to be 34 mln, up from the current 27.6 mln.)

NZX50 RISES
As at 3pm, the overall NZX50 index is up +1.2% so far today and rising. It is down -1.0% for the past week, down -4.7% since the start of the year, but up +4.8% from this time last year. There are 56 gainers today, led by Vulcan Steel, Mercury, a2 Milk, and Investore. There are 30 decliners today, led by Tourism Holdings, Restaurant Brands, NZME, and Contact. Market heavyweight F&P Healthcare is up +0.4% in late trade.

BIG NEW SECURITISATION
UDC is launching a floating rate note issue securitising up to $600 mln of car finance and equipment-backed commercial receivables.

FIRM DEMAND, LOWER SUPPLY, EQUALS HIGHER PRICES
Rabobank is reporting that beef pricing has trended higher in the first half of 2025 across all major beef supplying countries, and an expected dip in global supply should help keep pricing at healthy levels over coming months. Lower production is happening in many countries, including New Zealand. Demand is holding up in most markets.

'SIGNIFICANT SLOWING'
Australia released its Q1-2025 GDP growth data today. Their economy grew +0.2% in Q1-2025 from Q4-2024, slowing from +0.6% in Q4 and falling short of the +0.4% expected by analysts. This marked the 14th quarter of expansion but the softest pace in three quarters. On an annual basis, the GDP expanded +1.3%, holding steady for the second straight quarter but missing the expected +1.5% rise.

LESS NET DEBT
As at the end of March 2025, Australia had a positive net foreign equity position of +AU$730 bln (more investments offshore that foreigners had in Australia), but they had foreign debt liabilities of -AU$1.402 tln. So their net international investment position (IIP) was -AU$672.6 bln. On a per capita basis that is -AU$24,350. As at March 2024 it was -AU$26,250, so a sharpish 7.2% improvement.

SLIDING
In the US, vehicle sales tumbled in May, falling to an annual rate of 15.65 million units. That was well short of analyst's cut-down expectations of 16.3 million and the steepest monthly decline in nearly five years. In April, sales ran at a 17.25 million rate and that was itself below the 17.8 mln rate in March when buyers rushed to get ahead of anticipated tariff-tax price hikes. Although sales at a 15.65 mln rate isn't nothing, it does indicate the margins of this market is quite price sensitive.

SWAP RATES DIP SLIGHTLY
Wholesale swap rates are probably marginally softer. Keep an eye on our chart below which will record the final positions closer to 5pm. The 90 day bank bill rate was unchanged at 3.32% on Tuesday. The Australian 10 year bond yield is down -6 bps at 4.25%. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at under 1.71%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is down -7 bps at 4.67% and was down -2 bps to 4.59% in the earlier RBNZ fix today from yesterday. The UST 10yr yield is still on 4.45%, unchanged.

EQUITIES RISE
The NZX50 is up +1.0% so far today, and the ASX200 is up +0.8% in afternoon trade. Tokyo is up +1.0% in early Wednesday trade. Hong Kong is up +0.5% at its open while Shanghai is up +0.3%. Singapore has opened down -0.3%. Wall Street ended its Tuesday trade with a +0.6% gain on the S&P500.

OIL FIRMISH AGAIN
The oil price is marginally firmer at just under US$63.50/bbl in the US, and just on US$65.50/bbl for the international Brent price.

CARBON PRICE HOLDS
The carbon price is unchanged today at NZ$55/NZU on tiny volume. The next official carbon auction is on Wednesday, June 18, with a $68 floor price. See our daily chart tracker of the NZU price for carbon, courtesy of emsTradepoint.

GOLD DIPS SLIGHTLY
In early Asian trade, gold is down -US$8/oz from this time yesterday at US$3365/oz.

NZD EASES VERY MARGINALLY
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from this time yesterday, now at 60 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 52.8 euro cents. This all means the TWI-5 is now still just on 66.2 and little-changed from yesterday.

BITCOIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED
The bitcoin price is now at US$105,547 and down -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility has been quite low at +/-0.9%.

This soil moisture chart is animated here.

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